This year's field of originals and adaptations is incredibly dense
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"Blue Jasmine" - Woody Allen (Original Screenplay)
Pros: Allen has been nominated as a writer 15 times by the Academy and won three times, most recently for "Midnight in Paris" in 2012. He has four Oscars overall (that's more than Spielberg, who has 3). More importantly, "Blue Jasmine" is a critics' darling and art house hit that should easily net Allen his 16th writing nomination.
Cons: It would be shocking if he didn't earn a nomination based on the reaction to the film and his track record.