This year's field of originals and adaptations is incredibly dense
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"Lee Daniels' The Butler" - Danny Strong (Original Screenplay)
Pros: The summer smash is on the bubble for a Best Picture nomination, and will be getting the benefit of the Weinsteins' campaign magic. Strong's busy script, with its decades-spanning narrative balancing much personal and political detail, could find itself in the mix if the film hangs in there.
Cons: The writers aren't usually swayed by box office, even when a film does make the Best Picture grade -- they didn't nominate "The Help," which seems an apt example. Strong's script is probably a little too fusty and saccharine to impress this more critically-minded branch.
- Guy Lodge