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Kate Winslet - "Labor Day"
Pros: It's safe to say the Academy likes Kate Winslet. You're talking about someone who had six Oscar nominations (four for lead) and one win (for lead) before she was even 34 years old. In Jason Reitman's "Labor Day," she gets something truly unique to chew on in the Best Actress fray, a precious, agoraphobic single mother in New Hampshire swept off her feet by the touch and attentive kindness of an escaped convict.
Cons: The film played the Telluride and Toronto film festivals but was soon enough overshadowed by other films. With a Christmas release, it could bring the buzz back around after those films duke it out in the marketplace, but even though Winslet would appear to be the film's best bet, there are only so many slots to be filled.