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Brie Larson - "Short Term 12"
Pros: You could pretty much cut and paste the Greta Gerwig entry here, but to recap, Brie Larson gives a wonderful, lived-in performance in this film that is better than most of the work being considered seriously for an Oscar nomination. You sometimes can get indie flavor throughout the major categories, but it takes a lot of elbow grease to get there.
Cons: How much elbow grease is Cinedigm, already a hero for just releasing the film, willing to put into a campaign? How much are voters going to be willing to watch the screener, or will the glitzy stuff take precedent at the top of the stack as it always does? Again, you could cut and paste Greta Gerwig's entry here because both ladies face similar challenges.