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Matthew McConaughey - "Dallas Buyers Club"
Pros: Beyond the fact that he lost 38 pounds or the critical acclaim he's earned so far for his portrayal of Ron Woodroof or that he's been on a two-year roll of great performances or that he's still waiting for his first Oscar nomination, there is one reason McConaughey will be recognized with a Best Actor nomination: it's simply the best thing he's ever done.
Cons: It would be a huge upset for McConaughey to not make the field. In fact, he may be the frontrunner to win it all.