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Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone"
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea"
Who will win: Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Upset special: Marion Cotilard, "Rust and Bone"
Lowdown: Remember, the HFPA voted before the Oscar noms were revealed on Thursday. That means they likely assumed Cotillard was in the final mix (remember she got a supposed "key" SAG Awards nomination). So, while one would assume Chastain is the lock here, Cotillard - who won for "La vie en rose" and was nominated for "Nine" - could surprise.