Nominees:
Max Greenfield for "New Girl"
Ed Harris for "Game Change"
Danny Huston for "Magic City"
Mandy Patinkin for "Homeland"
Eric Stonestreet for "Modern Family"

Who will win: Mandy Patinkin
Upset special: Danny Huston
Lowdown: This is probably the most unpredictable category for Golden Globe night, since it's also a weird category because of the obvious people -- Aaron Paul, Jared Harris, anybody from "Downton Abbey" et al -- who were excluded. The prediction here is that "Homeland" replicates its huge Emmy night and raises the bar with a win for Patinkin. But maybe the voters will prefer to become the first group to give a win to Huston or Max Greenfield? Don't over-invest in this category if you're in a pool. All options are equally likely, or unlikely.