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Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Kevin Costner for "Hatfields & McCoys"
Benedict Cumberbatch for "Sherlock"
Woody Harrelson for "Game Change"
Toby Jones for "The Girl"
Clive Owen for "Hemingway & Gellhorn"
Who will win: Kevin Costner
Upset special: Benedict Cumberbatch
Lowdown: Kevin Costner won the Emmy and he's still a big ol' movie star, so he has to be considered a prohibitive favorite here. But that doesn't mean he's an inevitability. If you look back, this category has alternated between Movie Stars Doing TV winners -- Al Pacino or Kevin Bacon -- and Respected British Actors in the Wrong Category -- Idris Elba for "Luther" last year. Costner would fulfill the former mandate, but Benedict Cumberbatch would fulfill the latter and with the "Sherlock" star in the midst of a huge career wave, this would be ahead-of-the-curve recognition from the HFPA.