Pro: Uh, he's Daniel frickin' Day-Lewis. Playing Abraham frickin' Lincoln. The combination of arguably the most revered actor of his generation playing one of the most revered US presidents of all time practically nominates itself, before anyone's even seen the movie – though the glimpse we got of his work in the trailer suggests the actor is on typically meticulous, even academic, form.

Con: No one likes being declared the one to beat, particularly sight unseen – it practically invites a backlash before anyone's even had a chance to process his work. Plus, Day-Lewis already has two Oscars, and doesn't work too frequently – the Academy tends to make people labor a little longer for a third. Just ask Meryl Streep.

- Guy Lodge