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Sarah Paulson, "Martha Marcy May Marlene"
Pro: Paulson is exceptional as the older sister of a young woman (Elizabeth Olson) who has escaped from what may be some sort of cult. Along with John Hawkes, she could benefit from SAG support for the thriller which is absolutely an actor's showcase.
Con: "Martha Marcy May Marlene" has hardly set the box office on fire and it's likely the only benefactor of the picture's strong reviews will be Olson. And, more discouraging, even she isn't guaranteed a best actress nomination.