Pro: As Sir Laurence Olivier, Branagh almost steals the show from star Michelle Williams in this period romance about Marilyn Monroe's journey to England to shoot "The Prince and the Showgirl." He's been nominated four times previously. Once for best actor, once for adapted screenplay, once for director and once, no joke, for best short film. Branagh also made something of a behind the camera comeback as the director of Marvel's blockbuster "Thor" (it isn't integral, but it doesn't hurt either).

Con: Branagh's nomination is a big priority for distributor The Weinstein Company and, more importantly, actors love the movie (because it's about them).  He should make the cut.