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"The Ides of March"
Pro: George Clooney's latest directorial effort is a timely political drama (masked as a thriller) that features superb turns from an all-star Academy approved cast including Clooney, Ryan Gosling, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Marisa Tomei and Paul Giamatti.
Con: A slam dunk if there were guaranteed 10 nominees, "March" may not be distinctive enough to garner enough first place votes in the new system. If it's a hit, it will help.