Is it Clooney versus the field?
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Pro: Oldman is simply superb as John LeCarre's classic character George Smiley, a longtime espionage director investigating a mole in Britain's MI6 in this Cold War thriller. It would be shocking not to see him make the cut. Moreover, the legendary actor has actually never been nominated for an Oscar. That should end this year.
Con: He'd have to make a major public gaffe at this point to not get in.