Could this be the year's most competitive category?
Barbara Hershey, "Black Swan"
Pro: Hershey is captivating as a stage mother whose personal demons can't stop her from interfering in her daughter's promising career. If she gets enough critical support, she has an excellent shot. She was previously nominated in this category for her work in "A Portrait of a Lady."
Con: It's a numbers game. Fox Searchlight will have to have her work the circuit big time to lock it down. Is she willing?