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Mike Leigh, "Another Year"
Pro: Arguably one of Leigh's finest films in a truly stellar career, "Year" should make numerous critic's top ten lists and is a possible contender for a best picture nod this year. Leigh also has been nominated for an Academy Award six times -- including four in this category -- and has never won. Yep, he's due.
Con: Leigh's public remarks disparaging film festivals or the Oscar race were a publicist's worst nightmare, but the always daring writer's committee doesn't care about such matters, do they?