'Inception' and 'The Social Network' are likely a given, but who will fight for the other 8 slots?
Next gallery »Classic horror posters from the dazzling new 'Art Of Hammer' book
« Previous galleryFirst Look: 'Sherlock Holmes II' and 'The Hangover, Part II'
Derek Cianfrance, "Blue Valentine"
Pro: Ciafrance's drama has been praised since its debut at the 2010 Sundance Film Festival. It may find more success at the Independent Spirit Awards overall, but its the type of movie the Academy's writer's branch loves to recognize.
Con: Will the writer's committee be scared off by the films ludicrously unfair NC-17 rating?