'Inception' and 'The Social Network' are likely a given, but who will fight for the other 8 slots?
Derek Cianfrance, "Blue Valentine"
Pro: Ciafrance's drama has been praised since its debut at the 2010 Sundance Film Festival. It may find more success at the Independent Spirit Awards overall, but its the type of movie the Academy's writer's branch loves to recognize.
Con: Will the writer's committee be scared off by the films ludicrously unfair NC-17 rating?