One of the most highly coveted Grammy Awards is for best new artist, but the award has a spotty history. For every year the voters got it right, such as when the Beatles won in 1965, there has been a year when a dubious choice, such as Starland Vocal Band or Milli Vanilli took home the prize.

To be sure, time proved the Grammy voters prescient in selecting up-and-coming talents such as Tom Jones, Carly Simon, Bette Midler, Mariah Carey, Sheryl Crow, Christina Aguilera and Norah Jones. But, just for fun, let’s look at some of the nominated artists who lost out on best new artist in the award’s 50-year history: Elton John, Led Zeppelin, The Eagles, Barry White, Elvis Costello, Dire Straits, Luther Vandross, Eurythmics, Green Day and No Doubt.

With that in mind, here are our contenders for best new artist in the order of likelihood we think they’ll get a nod. The nominations will be announced Dec. 2. Just a reminder: Lady GaGa, the obvious winner, isn’t eligible because “Just Dance” was nominated for best dance recording last year. Two other possible contenders, Phoenix and Kid Cudi, are also not eligible.

Earlier this year, Asher Roth was poised to be the next big thing—and had a few MTV VMA nominations to show for it, but the ardor for the rapper has cooled since “I Love College” started the buzz.