Plus: Which categories have the best chance for upsets?
Next gallery »Who will be the next Spider-Man?
« Previous galleryFirst Look: 'Scott Pilgrim vs. the World,' 'MacGruber' and 'Your Highness'
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Matt Damon, "The Informant"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Nine"
Michael Stuhlbarg, "A Serious Man"
Robert Downey Jr., "Sherlock Holmes"
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "500 Days of Summer"
Who Will Win: Robert Downey, Jr.
Who Should Win: Matt Damon
Upset Contenders: This is tough. Word has it the HFPA didn't adore "Holmes," but it's a big hit and they would love to reward former winner and arguably one of the world's biggest stars, Downey, Jr. On the other hand, Damon also gave a more impressive performance in a movie they loved less. Day-Lewis was the worst part of "Nine," so the only other real upset contender is Stuhlbarg which would pretty much be a jaw-dropper, but it's theoretically possible.