Previous nominations or wins: None

Pros: She gives one of the best performances by any actress this year in a turn almost no one unexpected.  The fact she holds her own against Clooney in scene after scene only makes the achievement much more impressive.  And she'll conveniently fill the slot of the young ingenue in this category Academy members love to embrace.

Cons:  It's realy hard to imagine her not getting nominated.  This could only occur if "Air" isn't embraced as expected by the Academy or if the "Nine" ladies somehow swoop in and grab four of the five slots (which would be jaw-dropping).