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Rupert Friend, "The Young Victoria"
Previous nominations or wins: None
Pros: The Academy love their period dramas and as the charming and humble Prince Albert, Friend could surprise. The Brit was also outstanding in Stephen Frears' "Cheri" which won't hurt in the mind of the acting branch.
Cons: "Victoria" is primarily centered on co-star Emily Blunt's performance. The picture has already been released across most of Europe to mediocre reviews. It's unclear if American critics or audiences will give it a warmer reception.