Are 'Star Trek,' 'District 9' and 'Avatar' on the list? You bet they are
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Capitalism: A Love Story
Pros: Setting records in limited release, "Capitalism" is a historically well-timed doc about the current economic crisis. You could debate that if there were 10 nominees in 2005 that "Fahrenheiht 9/11" would have gotten in. Moore's last doc, "Sicko," was nominated for Best Documentary two years ago. He won an Oscar for "Bowling for Columbine" in 2003.
Cons: The film is taking a lot more criticism from both sides of the political spectrum than Moore's previous endeavors. It would have to have a big cultural impact in the next few months to over come that hurdle.