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James Cameron, "Avatar"
Previous nominations or wins:
Winner, Best Director, "Titanic" (1998)
Winner, Best Editing, "Titanic" (1998)
Winner, Best Picture, "Titanic" (1998)
Pros: The iconic director has spent the last ten years developing the technology to make "Avatar." Even if he partially pulls it off, his peers may reward him for his diligence in making it happen.
Cons: If the movie doesn't work or is a major critical misfire it won't matter. Even if it makes boatloads of money. No one wants to reward a video game.