2/20 Thoughts: Industry sentiment dictates that "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" should be an easy winner here, with the much-discussed performance aspect of the film's effects giving it an edge with less technically inclined voters. But I wonder if they might not simply go for a film for which they feel more personal connection: "Hugo," though not a spectacular FX showcase, could triumph here on merit and momentum alone, while BAFTA winner "Potter" will be hoping voters remember 10 years' worth of effects in the franchise. --Guy Lodge

Good Bets

• "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
  1.

Other Possibilities

• "Hugo"
  2.
• "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"
  3.

Dark Horses

• "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
  4.

The Rest of the field

• "Real Steel"
  5.