2/20 Thoughts: Though the film that beat it, "The Skin I Live In" isn't eligible here, "A Separation"'s surprise BAFTA loss was a worrying sign that industry folk don't hold the film quite a sacred as critics do. Given its subject matter and big-name director, "In Darkness" seems the on-paper alternative, but I suspect many voters will be beguiled by the gentle, charms of "Monsieur Lazhar." --Guy Lodge

Good Bets

• "A Separation" (Iran)
  1.

Other Possibilities

• "Monsieur Lazhar" (Canada)
  2.
• "In Darkness" (Poland)
  3.
• "Footnote" (Israel)
  4.

Dark Horses

• "Bullhead" (Belgium)
  5.

The Rest of the field