2/20 Thoughts: As much as people like to make parallels with the 2002 Rob Marshall/Roman Polanski situation that vaguely make sense on paper, this isn't looking like much of a race. Michel Hazanavicius has the DGA, the BAFTA, the BFCA Award and even some major critics' prizes. Martin Scorsese has a Golden Globe. Do the math. "The Artist" is too well-loved -- and too much a product of directorial ingenuity -- not to win here.--Guy Lodge

Good Bets

• Michel Hazanavicius ("The Artist")
  1.

Other Possibilities

• Martin Scorsese ("Hugo")
  2.

Dark Horses

• Terrence Malick ("The Tree of Life")
  3.
• Alexander Payne ("The Descendants")
  4.
• Woody Allen ("Midnight in Paris")
  5.

The Rest of the field