Hanna could well surprise in the sound categories I think... and it just might, just might sneak into score.

I think if any category is ripe for a surprise nomination it's Best Supporting Actor or the fifth slot in Best Director...

Otherwise the five sort-of longshots I hope for are:

- Hanna for Sound Mixing/Score/ANYTHING
- Kirsten Dunst: Best Actress
- Ryan Gosling: Best Actor (Drive)
- Carey Mulligan: Best Supporting Actress (I actually think she might actually manage to push in there if Fassbender also makes it in)
- Tilda Swinton: Best Actress (Not really a longshot but don't wish to jinx it ;)

Predictions for the major categories:

Best Picture
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"The Help"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Hugo"
"Moneyball"
(alt: "The Tree of Life", "The Ides of March", "War Horse")

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicious for "The Artist"
Martin Scorsese for "Hugo"
Alexander Payne for "The Descendants"
Woody Allen for "Midnight in Paris"
Terrence Malick for "The Tree of Life"
(alt: David Fincher for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo")

Best Actor
George Clooney for "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin for "The Artist"
Brad Pitt for "Moneyball"
Michael Fassbender for "Shame"
Demian Bichir for "A Better Life"
(alt: Gary Oldman for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy")

Best Actress
Viola Davis for "The Help"
Meryl Streep for "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams for "My Week with Marilyn"
Tilda Swinton for "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Glenn Close for "Albert Nobbs"
(alt: Rooney Mara for "The Girl with the Dragoon Tattoo")

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer for "Beginners"
Albert Brooks for "Drive"
Kenneth Branagh for "My Week with Marilyn"
Jonah Hill for "Moneyball"
Corey Stoll for "Midnight in Paris"
(alt: Max Von Sydow for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close")

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer for "The Help"
Berenice Bejo for "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain for "The Help"
Janet McTeer for "Albert Nobbs"
Melissa McCarthy for "Bridesmaids"
(alt: Shailene Woodley for "The Descendants")

Best Adapted Screenplay
"The Descendants"
"Moneyball"
"The Help"
"The Ides of March"
"The Girl with the Dragoon Tattoo"
(alt: "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy")

Best Original Screenplay
"Midnight in Paris"
"The Artist"
"Beginners"
"Bridesmaids"
"Win Win"
(alt: "50/50")

These predictions are a bit out there, in a reasonable way.

Notes:
Picture: The cinephile/arthouse/awesome people in the Academy have to save The Tree of Life in some way, there isn't a true "critics" arthouse cause in the nominees (IMO) and The Tree of Life would fill that void.

Director: But I can't predict Malick here because...of no particular reason but we haven't had a lone director nominee since '07. Even with 5 nominees for '09 and '10, I still don't think we would've had a lone director. Maybe the membership changed in the pat few years, but this is not the adventurous branch of the Lynch/Almodovar/Meirelles/Leigh/Greengrass/Schnabel age. This is the Daldry/Coens > Nolan age.

Actor: Every person with the GG/SAG/BFCA trio that has missed with Oscar has also missed with BAFTA, which doesn't bode well for DiCaprio. With Tinker's rising profile in the past few weeks I think Oldman is in. Not sold on Fassbender either. Clooney/Dujardin/Oldman/Pitt/Shannon just sounds like a more Oscar-y line-up than Clooney/Dujardin/Pitt/NC-17fullfrontal/Shoddymakeupjobonaguythathistoricallyhasn'tdoneasweelwiththeAcademyashecouldhave. At least Fassbender has a narrative.

Actress: Not that it should matter but Mara doesn't seem like a pleasant person and Close has definitely been out campaigning, if anything, I prefer Theron's chances for an upset.

Supporting Actor: I have a funny feeling that Albert Brooks will be a very similar case to Bill Murray in Rushmore. Critics darling that scores Globe but missed SAG and BAFTA. Big difference, Brooks is more likable and if Drive doesn't show up in supporting actor where does it show up? And Corey Stoll may benefit from being the standout performance in a film that has done VERY well with the Guilds/is locked for Oscar. Could pull a Shannon/Revolutionary Road surprise.
Brad Pitt has done what many consider the best work in his career and he should be IN GODDAMMIT! So fuck Jonah Hill because he was the weak link in Moneyball for me and he should've been here last year for Cyrus.

Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley looks like this year's Andrew Garfield, great supporting turn in BP runner-up with some key (Globe/BFCA/critics nods) that misses SAG and Oscar. And since (I don't think) anybody with the SAG/GG/BFCA/BAFTA has ever missed an Oscar nod, McCarthy might be in (I hear she missed the Globe because she didn't show up to some...party? Whatever. Personally I hope Academy snobbery keeps her out, but Bridesmaids'll probably show up somewhere and I refuse to predict it for screenplay). If both Woodley and McCarthy fall out, I'd like to think that this benefits Vanessa Redgrave.

Original Screenplay: I have a hard time believing that a silent film is 100% locked for an Original Screenplay nom, so I'll just called it 99% locked.
If Judd Apatow can't score in Original Screenplay I have a hard time believing that Bridesmaids will. What the Apatovian curse also affects is...strangely...50/50, so while 50/50 looks solid, I can't predict it if I believe in the Apatovian curse. Take Shelter would fill the void for a Drama nominee, and it has a much more writer friendly screenplay than Martha Marcy May Marlene or Margin Call or The Tree of Life.
Beginners is locked for supporting actor and it has one of the best screenplays of the year so WHERE THE HELL WAS IT ON THE CURCUIT? ...Anyways, I can't NOT predict it.
Going 2/5 with conventional wisdom seems wrong and Young Adult has scored the essential notices, so I'll pick that over Win Win because I hated Win Win.
I'd buy A Separation's chances more if it were a more "polished" looking film. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Pan's Labyrinth, City of God, The Barbarian Invasions, Talk to Her, etc. it is not. Production values wise, I mean. Not that that should matter, but I think it does.

Adapted Screenplay: Hugo has a pretty bad script, but the film is one of the runner-ups to The Artist in the BP race, so it's probably in...and it's a movie about movies. Which helps.
The Help (objectively) does NOT have a very good script, and...uh...since the writers are the most adventurous branch...usually...I think they'll ignore it. But Dragon Tattoo is the alternate and Zaillian's already in play with Moneyball and the script rather unintentionally highlights everything that was wrong with the book. So I'm not sold on that. I'd probably predict The Ides of March had it shown up at the WGA. I thought it would after the AFI/PGA/GG noms, but now that it has fallen out of the consensus five it would take a bit of a passion vote to revive and The Ides of March is NOT a passion vote kind of film. Which also leaves USC Scripter Nominee Jane Eyre, but I'm already predicting enough surprises.

Best Picture:
1. "The Artist" (Locked)
2. "Hugo" (Locked)
3. "The Descendants" (Locked)
4. "Midnight in Paris"
5. "The Help"
6. "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
7. "Moneyball"
8. "The Tree of Life"
---
9. "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
10. "War Horse"

Best Director:
1. Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist" (Locked)
2. Martin Scorsese, "Hugo" (Locked)
3. Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
4. Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
5. David Fincher, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Alt: Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Best Actor:
1. George Clooney, "The Descendants" (Locked)
2. Brad Pitt, "Moneyball" (Locked)
3. Jean Dujardin, "The Artist" (Locked)
4. Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
5. Michael Shannon, "Take Shelter"
Alt: Michael Fassbender, "Shame"

Best Actress:
1. Viola Davis, "The Help" (Locked)
2. Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn" (Locked)
3. Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
4. Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
5. Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Alt: Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christopher Plummer, "Beginners" (Locked)
2. Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn" (Locked)
3. Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
4. Corey Stoll, "Midnight in Paris"
5. Brad Pitt, "The Tree of Life"
Alt: Albert Brooks, "Drive"

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Octavia Spencer, "The Help" (Locked)
2. Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist" (Locked)
3. Jessica Chastain, "The Help" (Locked)
4. Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
5. Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"
Alt: Vanessa Redgrave, "Coriolanus"

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris" (Locked)
2. Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
3. Jeff Nichols, "Take Shelter"
4. Mike Mills, "Beginners"
5. Diablo Cody, "Young Adult"
Alt: Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, "The Descendants" (Locked)
2. Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zailoian, "Moneyball" (Locked)
3. Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan, "TInker Tailor Soldier Spy"
4. John Logan, "Hugo"
5. Steven Zaillian, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Alt: Tate Taylor, "The Help"

My prediction in the main categories

Best Picture - 7 slots
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
-------------------------------------
Moneyball
Bridesmaids

I predict to be 7, but if the number is higher Moneyball and Bridesmaids could get a spot.

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Terence Mallick - The Tree of Life

Best Actor
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Michael Shannon - Take Shelter
Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Actress
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
Viola Davis - The Help
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
Rooney Mara - TGWTDT

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Armie Hammer - J Edgar
Nick Nolte - Warrior

Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
Bernice Bejo - The Artist
Carey Mulligan - Shame

Screenplay - Original
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Young Adult
Bridesmaids
A Separation

Screenplay - Adapted
Moneyball
The Descendants
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help

Cinematography
Tree of Life
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Oscar Predictions: 2011

Best Picture-
“The Artist”
“The Descendants”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“The Help”
“Moneyball”
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Best Director-
Michael Hazanavicius “The Artist”
Alexander Payne “The Descendants”
David Fincher “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Martin Scorsese “Hugo”
Woody Allen “Midnight in Paris”

Best Actor-
Jean Dujardin “The Artist”
George Clooney “The Descendants”
Brad Pitt “Moneyball”
Leonardo DiCaprio “J. Edgar”
Gary Oldman “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

Best Actress-
Meryl Streep “The Iron Lady”
Viola Davis “The Help”
Tilda Swinton “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Michelle Williams “My Week with Marilyn”
Rooney Mara “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Best Supporting Actor-
Christopher Plummer “Beginners”
Kenneth Branagh “My Week with Marilyn”
Nick Nolte “Warrior”
Jonah Hill “Moneyball”
Albert Brooks “Drive”

Best Supporting Actress-
Octavia Spencer “The Help”
Shailene Woodley “The Descendants”
Berenice Bejo “The Artist”
Meissa McCarthy “Bridesmaids”
Jessica Chastain “The Help”

Best Adapted Screenplay-
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
“Moneyball”
“The Help”
“The Descendants”
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Best Original Screenplay-
“The Artist”
“Young Adult”
“Bridesmaids”
“50/50”
“Midnight in Paris”

Best Editing-
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
“The Artist”
“Moneyball”
“Hugo”
“The Descendants”

Best Cinematography-
“Hugo”
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
“The Artist”
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
“The Tree of Life”

Best Art Direction-
“Hugo”
“Anonymous”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II”
“The Artist”
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

Best Costume Design-
“Hugo”
“The Help”
“Jane Eyre”
“The Artist”
“My Week with Marilyn”

Best Sound Editing-
“The Adventures of Tintin”
“Hugo”
“Super 8”
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

Best Sound Mixing-
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
“Super 8”
“Hugo”
“Hanna”

Best Score-
“The Artist”
“Hugo”
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
“War Horse”

Best Makeup-
“The Iron Lady”
“Hugo”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2”

Best Visual Effects-
“Hugo”
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
“Captain America: The First Avenger”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2”
“The Tree of Life”

Best Animated Feature
“Rango”
“Cars 2”
“The Adventures of Tintin”
“Kung Fu Panda 2”
“Puss in Boots”

Pretty much the consenus with a few surprises thrown in.

Best Picture (Predicting 8, very easily could be 7 or 6)
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Descendants
4. Midnight in Paris
5. The Help
6. Moneyball
7. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
8. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
(alt. War Horse, The Tree of Life)

Best Director
1. Michel Hazanavicius "The Artist"
2. Martin Scorsese "Hugo"
3. Woody Allen "Midnight in Paris"
4. Alexander Payne "The Descendants"
5. Bennett Miller "Moneyball" (mix things up a little)
(alt. Terrence Mallick "The Tree of Life")

Best Actor
1. George Clooney
2. Jean Dujardin
3. Brad Pitt
4. Micheal Fassbender
5. Gary Oldman
(alt. Micheal Shannon)

Best Actress
1. Viola Davis
2. Meryl Streep
3. Michelle Williams
4. Tilda Swinton
5. Rooney Mara
(alt. Glenn Close)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Christopher Plummer
2. Kenneth Branagh
3. Albert Brooks
4. Jonah Hill
5. Nick Nolte

Best Supporting Actress
1. Octavia Spencer
2. Berenice Bejo
3. Jessica Chastain
4. Shailene Woodley
5. Melissa McCarthy

Best Original Screenplay
1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. Bridesmaids
4. A Separation
5. Beginners

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Moneyball
2. The Descendants
3. Hugo
4. The Help
5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Editing
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Moneyball
4. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
5. The Descendants

Best Cinematography
1. The Tree of Life
2. The Artist
3. Hugo
4. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

My full predictions are here: http://moviemanifesto.blogspot.com/2012/01/oscars-2011-nomination-predictions_23.html

It would infuriate me, but I think "The Tree of Life" gets in for Best Picture because of the ballot premium on first-place votes. Conversely, I think "Moneyball" and "War Horse" miss out on the big prize.

The biggest mystery to me is the original screenplay category. I'm going with "Rango" and "Young Adult" (in addition to the accepted triumvirate of "The Artist", "Bridesmaids," and "Midnight in Paris"), but I won't be surprised if something sneaky like "Margin Call" shows up.

If nothing else, it should be an interesting slate of nominees.

Surprises?

1. Tate Taylor for Director. In fact, The Help will get a lot more nominations than expected.

2. A Tinker, Tailor, Sailor, Spy getting more than 5 nominations, including BP, Oldman, Costume, Screenplay, Cinematography, Score.

3. Corey Stoll will not be forgotten.

4. The Social Network will not win Best Picture.

Here are my final prediction in the big categories with minimal commentary-

Best Picture (8 Nominees)
-The Artist
-Hugo
-The Descendants
-The Help
-Midnight In Paris
-Moneyball
-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
-Bridesmaids
------------------------------
-The Tree Of Life
-The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

I just have a feeling that with the new rules, the one outright comedy ('Midnight In Paris,' I know, but they are very different movies), will get a lot of first-place votes. I think it gets in just because of how different it is from the other possibilities.

Best Director
-Martin Scorcese
-Michel Hazanavicius
-Woody Allen
-Alexander Payne
-Nicholas Winding Refn

I threw Refn in because there will be a passion nominee, and I really hope it's him.

Best Actor
-Jean Dujardin
-George Clooney
-Brad Pitt
-Gary Oldman
-Michael Shannon

I wanted to throw in Fassbender, but I have a feeling Oldman has become the cause. Fassbender will have his day (again).

Best Actress
-Meryl Streep
-Viola Davis
-Michelle Williams
-Tilda Swinton
-Rooney Mara

Don't think Close can do it.

Best Supporting Actor
-Christopher Plummer
-Albert Brooks
-Kenneth Branagh
-Jonah Hill
-Nick Nolte

I can't leave Brooks off, but if he misses I think Pitt gets in.

Best Supporting Actress
-Octavia Spencer
-Jessica Chastain
-Berenice Bejo
-Mellissa McCarthy
-Shailene Woodley

Again, Albert Nobbs does not seem strong enough, even here.

Best Adapted Screenplay
-Moneyball
-The Descendants
-Hugo
-The Help
-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

I really really want Drive to get in, but I still dont know how the academy will react to that movie.

Best original Screenplay
-Midnight In Paris
-The Artist
-Bridesmaids
-Win/Win
-Young Adult

I love this category this year, and 50/50, Beginners, and A Seperation could all get in.

Overall, I think this season has been a great one, even if I don't love many of the movies. It will continue to be exciting also, since I think only Picture has a clear winner at the moment (of these 8 categories). Could actually still be exciting for another month and change

Raise your hand if you had Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close nominated for Best Picture. I think even the people that made EL&IC would tell you Drive and Tinker Tailor were better films.