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The morning after the FOX bubble bloodbath - what happened?

A lousy year for network rookies culminated in a five-cancellation night

The morning after the FOX bubble bloodbath - what happened?

Delroy Lindo was terrific on "The Chicago Code," but the show won't be coming back.

Credit: FOX

I got the news from Shawn Ryan about FOX canceling "The Chicago Code" pretty late in the evening East Coast time, so I didn't have much time to process the larger massacre that was going on at the network last night, in which every bubble show FOX had left - not only "The Chicago Code," but "Human Target," "Lie to Me," "Breaking In" and "Traffic Light" - were all told their services wouldn't be required for next season.

On one level, the Tuesday night bubble bloodbath was surprising. FOX doesn't announce its fall schedule until Monday, and while some cancellations and pick-ups will leak in the days leading up to a network's upfront presentation, you don't usually hear about all of them (including a few other new series pick-ups) this far in advance. And while it's not uncommon to see a network pop most of its bubble shows, to get rid of all of them? Very strange.

But maybe we shouldn't be so surprised. FOX renewed both "Raising Hope" and "Fringe" a while back, and without those early pick-ups - one or both of which I suspect FOX execs may be questioning in hindsight, given what's happened to each show's ratings since - they'd have been on the bubble right along with "Chicago Code" and "Breaking In." So you can look at it as FOX picking up two of its bubble shows, and for a season when they already have a bunch of real estate committed to both returning hits ("House," "Bones," the Sunday cartoons) and to a pair of high-profile newbies in "The X Factor" and "Terra Nova." When you only program two hours a night, there's simply not a lot of room for marginal performers, which is what all five of the canceled series were.

"Chicago Code" got a huge marketing campaign during the football playoffs and Super Bowl, as well as one of FOX's better timeslots (or what was once one of its better timeslots, but I'll get back to that) on Mondays after "House," and it didn't even premiere to good numbers. Some of the comments to last night's post suggest the show's creative growing pains chased people away, but not enough people turned up in the first place. "Human Target" came back for a second season (after being an iffy renewal to begin with) with a creative makeover none of its small cadre of fans liked. "Lie to Me" had cycled through a bunch of showrunners (including "Chicago Code" boss Shawn Ryan, who had an especially lousy Tuesday) without ever developing into more than a hole-filler. (Its finest moment, business-wise, may have been stopping the bleeding caused by the disastrous two-week run of "Lone Star.") "Traffic Light" was losing far too much of its already small "Raising Hope" lead-in. The only one doing decent numbers at all was "Breaking In," and it's easy to look at those ratings as 100% artificially inflated by airing after "American Idol." Had FOX brought it back next year in tandem with "Raising Hope," it could have easily pulled in "Traffic Light"-level numbers. (Still, it's the most surprising of the five, by a lot.)

I've seen a lot of anger towards FOX on Twitter, on this blog, and elsewhere in the last 12 hours, and it's understandable. None of these shows were highly-rated, but all had their fans, and nobody wants to see a show they liked get canceled - let alone this many at once. Phrases like "All FOX ever does is cancel good shows" abounded.

But here is what I'll say in FOX's defense, even as I'm sad that my two favorite network pilots of this season - "Lone Star" and "The Chicago Code" - both failed in the same FOX timeslot (again, more on that in a bit): FOX takes chances. FOX tries the kinds of shows the other broadcast networks simply won't. Because of the institutional legacy of "The X-Files," for instance, FOX has continually tried to make science-fiction work in primetime to an extent that none of its competitors will try. Though the names of the people in charge of the network change, FOX consistently puts on shows that have more ambitious concepts than anyone else in broadcast. Yes, they canceled "Lone Star," and "Firefly," and "Arrested Development" and far too many other great (or potentially great) shows in the last decade alone, but they put those shows on the air in the first place, when NBC, ABC and CBS likely wouldn't have.

The sad truth of the TV business is that most new shows fail, and that failure rate only gets higher when you try shows that aren't exactly like 16 other shows on TV. When you swing for the fences, you strike out a lot more often than when you just try to hit a single. And while many fine FOX shows have died in the cradle, the network also gave us three seasons of "Arrested Development," and they're going to give us at least four seasons of "Fringe." Four seasons of "Fringe." That is, given the show's ratings, both ridiculous and welcome.

Shows get canceled. All the time. But if you decide en masse you're turning your back on the biggest risk-taker left in broadcast TV, then that decreases the chances that the risks will continue, and then we'll only get even more reality, more straight-forward, generic procedurals, etc.

And the other thing that occurred to me while pondering this mess is what a tough year it's been in general for the networks. The only breakout hit on any network has been NBC's "The Voice." ABC could justifiably cancel every single new show it debuted this year and no one would be shocked (though "Body of Proof" and a couple of the comedies will likely survive). Pre-sold shows like "Hawaii Five-0" and "Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior," that in years past would have been instant hits, have either done just okay or outright struggled.

You can blame some of this on what was a fairly dismal crop of new shows - where even the best pilot in "Lone Star" was one that had everyone questioning whether the show would be any good within 3 or 4 weeks (due to the ratings, we never had to worry about that) - but at the same time, it seems like this was the year when a lot of the rules the business used to rely on stopped working.

One of the fundamental tenets of scheduling is that you turn a new show into a hit by putting it on after a pre-existing hit, but nothing FOX has put on after "House" since the end of "24" has done any kind of number. Putting "Suspect Behavior" on after the original "Criminal Minds" hasn't worked the way that teaming up the two "NCIS" shows did last year. Promotion during sporting events has always been an iffy concept, as it's a borrowed audience and most of the people watching football on Sunday have no interest in watching dramas or sitcoms on Monday and Tuesday, but now it seems to have no effect at all. Again, FOX poured a ton of money and airtime into making people aware of "The Chicago Code," and very few of those people ever bothered to watch it.

Maybe it really is all about the shows. Maybe people just didn't want to watch a cop show starring Jennifer Beals and a relative unknown in Jason Clarke. Maybe "Suspect Behavior" has struggled because "Criminal Minds" fans don't like the new cast. Maybe "No Ordinary Family" would be coming back if it hadn't quickly squandered an interesting premise. And maybe if next season's rookies are better - and goodness knows, I am going to hear the phrase "We had our best development season ever!" far more than I care to during the upfronts next week - we'll see some actual out-of-the-box scripted successes.

But this has been a rough year, and the FOX bubble bloodbath was just a symptom of that much larger problem.

Alan Sepinwall may be reached at sepinwall@hitfix.com

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Next 159 Comments
  • Default-avatar

    ChampSkins

    It was nights like last night that get me worried about shows like Parenthood, and even more thankful for early pickups like Community, Parks and Rec and Fringe.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:36AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Garrrry

    They should have given The Chicago Code a snappier name, something like "Ride Along".

    May 11, 2011 at 10:42AM EST Reply to Comment
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      ZacharyTF I see what you did there. :-)

      May 11, 2011 at 11:42AM EST
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    cadfile

    I think it all has to do with the show itself. In my case I felt most of the shows that have struggled have been frankly bland plot wise.

    The shows that I have liked - like "The Good Wife" take standard plots and aren't afraid to put a twist on it or put in more things at stake.

    I mean how many times is Steve McGarret on Hawaii Five 0 going to almost die in an episode before it grows tiresome. I like the show but it seems bland to me.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:43AM EST Reply to Comment
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    John W

    Thanks for putting things in perspective Alan.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:43AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Dan3320

    Well said Alan. Very well said.

    I think people do overreact to bad news, and sometimes you need to step back and look at the larger picture. Which, in this case, is that lately the new network shows just do not have a high success rate. I was a very big fan of The Chicago Code...and the reason I tuned in was because of all the promos during football. But that is because I happen to be in the minority I guess - I LOVE sports and also LOVE scripted TV.

    I'll borrow a phrase I use often as a Detroit Lions fan....well, let's hope for more success next season!

    Sigh...

    May 11, 2011 at 10:45AM EST Reply to Comment
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    a.e.

    The Chicago Code was not very good. And I say that having watched every episode and read all your blog posts on the show. I felt more obligated to watch (because, you know, finish what you started) than eager to watch and see the stories unfold. As a fan of Shawn Ryan's work, I'm kind of glad I won't feel compelled to watch another episode that will ultimately be disappointing.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:47AM EST Reply to Comment
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      Dante I have to say I agree with you. I'm going to finish out the season, but I don't know that I would've tuned in for another season even if it had been renewed.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:13AM EST
    • Ron-swanson-manly_pic_talkback_profile

      Timm S Couldn't have said it better. Your post sums up my feelings/thoughts exactly. I, too, am glad the show is out of its misery, and we with it.

      May 11, 2011 at 9:35PM EST
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    M

    The only cancellation that was even mildly surprising was Breaking In. The other shows all got a fair chance and were clearly never going to turn into hits. Granted, not every show is going to pull in huge numbers, but I can see why Fox would rather take a chance with something new than continue to fill its schedule with middling performers. Worst case scenario, the replacement shows tank and they fill holes with cheap fare like Kitchen Nightmares that will do just fine.

    To me the biggest shock is how many talented actors are now out of work. I wonder if we'll see some recastings over the summer with actors like Mark Valley, Chi McBride, and Bret Harrison getting scooped up by some of the new shows.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:50AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Matt C.

    Alan, the frustrating thing is TheChicagoCode was coming together, finding itself, and if given another season, even 13-ep order, don't you think ShawnRyan would've NAILED it?

    I think Ryan tampered his sensibility to fit on broadcast FOX as opposed to cable FX, and it gave us a little bit more of a neutered show than we hoped for, but, AGAIN, a show that was finally figuring it out, as this last episode on Monday night proved out.

    I'm going to miss Wysocki and Evers, and you better believe I'm going to miss the smoldering beauty of Jennifer Beals, who actually looks better now than she did in the 80's, if you can believe that.

    And I'm going to miss the BEST credits song (sung by the incomperable Billy Corgan) on television right now. If Corgan doesn't release a single of the full song, I think I may LIT-TRALLY go insane!

    And speaking of music...

    I don't think any fan of season 1 of Human Target will miss the show, as Human Target Season 1 was a very good show, and Miller's version was what happens to a good a show when someone comes in and every choice they make to change it for the "better" is the complete WRONG choice.

    I love Chuck with a passion just bellow BSG, Fringe, Buffy, and Angel.

    But the Chuckafication of Human Target, complete with out of place and annoying "needle-drops" in place of Bear McCreary's outstanding and Emmy-nominated scoring, was horrible.

    Basically, Human Target died last Spring. What was on TV since then was Zombie Human Target, a soulless entity that needed to be shot in the head for our own good, no matter how much we loved it while it was still alive.

    Just horrible. Good riddance, Zombie Human Target.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:51AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Midnight_run_mca255950_talkback_profile

      sepinwall I don't know that Shawn was neutering himself. He did just fine running The Unit and Lie to Me, and in both cases, those shows knew what they were either from the pilot (in the case of The Unit) or from when Shawn took over (Lie to Me). That's what was surprising/disappointing to me about Chicago Code, in that it's the first Ryan show that didn't seem fully-formed practically from birth.

      May 11, 2011 at 10:57AM EST
    • i agree with every word you just said, Matt C! especially on Human Target. that first season was a lot of fun, and the amazing score by Bear McCreary was second to none.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:26AM EST
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      Matt C. I guess, Alan... I wonder if Ryan was more occupied with Terriers, and that's why The Chicago Code took so much time to coalesce?

      And Leor... what happened to Human Target is the most unfortunate thing I've seen happen to a show since the first half of Caprica.

      Jane Espensen was outstanding with Buffy and Angel, and she has such a goodwill reservoir with me because of that, but her work in the BSG universe hasn't been that good at all. The Plan was generally dreadful, even with a game Dean Stockwell, and the first half of Caprica, which she ran, was a mess that made little sense in character and plotting.

      The second half of Caprica was SO much better with her just a writer, not a show runner, but the mess of the first half was such a turn-off that no one tuned in to a show that slowly extricated itself from the mess that came before.

      Human Target is another example of a showrunner taking a great premise with built-in, loyal audience (from the first season, as opposed to BSG fans coming over to check out Caprica) and completely ruining all good-will but not understanding what made the show good in the first place.

      Matt Miller acted like he had no clue why people loved Human Target, and even in interviews since the show ended, he still had no clue to why people liked the first season. Yes, the show got a lucky pick-up, and yes, FOX wanted changes, but Miller tried to bring in a feel that yes, WORKS on a show like Chuck, where a pop-culture geek like Chuck Bartowski is fun to watch while listening to Rush or Radiohead or Cake or whatever "needle-drop" the showrunner had queued up that week.

      But Chance is NOT Chuck. The "needle-drops" were annoying and out of place. Kinda like the Evanescence music in Daredevil.

      Also, along with Chance not being Chuck, Guerrero is not John Casey and Winston isn't Morgan... and it just all seemed... wrong.

      Miller effectively neutered the testosterone between the three guys to make it "appeal" more to women, and that just doesn't work for a show like this, which should've been this millenium's answer to MacGyver.

      And the will-they-won't-they crap between Chance & Ilsa, which barely worked (sometimes) between Chuck & Sarah, was intolerable on Human Target.

      Such a wasted opportunity with this show. FOX really crapped the bed by bringing in a guy like Miller. You know who would've made Human Target more awesome?

      Shawn Ryan. Still probably would've been cancelled (sigh), but at least the 2nd season would've been watchable.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:57AM EST
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      Al Re: Human Target - perfect summary of what happened to that show. Normally I'd be bummed that it was cancelled, but I don't think think I could stomach another "Poochie" season. They should take season 2 of HT and turn it into a seminar called "How Retooling Can Ruin a Good Show". Stop this madness, suits...just. stop. it.

      May 12, 2011 at 8:18AM EST
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      webdiva I very much liked the first season of Human Target. Didn't care for the retool -- I'm a woman, and they didn't need to change it to attract me. I could have dealt with Mrs. Pucci if she'd stayed in the office more, provided more witty repartee, and they'd skipped the romantic angle entirely. But that mouthy little thief?? Totally superflouous and unjustifiable: plotwise, there was nothing she did or brought to the table that Chance and Guerrero couldn't manage between them (and frequently did). She had absolutely no purpose, and the character itself was boring. All that change was pointless, seeing how it didn't improve the ratings but rather killed them. And Matt is right: I didn't need this to be a rehash of Chuck. Given how much I liked Mark Valley and Chi McBride in this, I'm sorry to see it go.

      But the real tragedy for me among the cancellations isn't at Fox but ABC: Detroit 1-8-7. I really loved that show -- it was to Detroit what I hoped Chicago Code could become for my hometown, an excellent procedural with great writing, good characters I could care about, and local twists that made it unique. Much as I wanted The Chicago Code to succeed, the one I'll really miss is Detroit 1-8-7. It's like ABC and Fox aren't trying anymore to help decent shows grow an audience. RIP, y'all.

      May 16, 2011 at 7:29PM EST
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    nic919

    Is it possible that the entire system to measure ratings is inadequate and antiquated? While it is true that the viewing audience is more fragmented than ever, there are also more people watching television shows, although perhaps watching it later on DVR or online or downloading it through iTunes. Maybe if these viewing methods were taken into account, the ratings for shows that seemed to be watched by few would change.

    Viewing habits have changed so much since the 1950s, yet the ways to measure them have not.

    I do agree with your overall assertion that Fox is one of the few networks that takes risks. I am so tired of the Law and Order, CSIs et al, but unfortunately those never seem to get cancelled despite their lack of creativity.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:51AM EST Reply to Comment
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      Jesse Wow, I didn't see this post before saying almost the exact same thing a few posts down. Brilliant minds think alike...

      May 11, 2011 at 11:00AM EST
    • Cue the inevitable responses:

      1.) The internet doesn't matter because they're isn't enough money to be made by the networks. More people watch on their televisions. Pay no attention to Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Google/Sony, etc. The internet is just for nerds. No money here.

      2. The Nielsen system is extremely accurate because the Nielsen system has been the standard bearer for viewership measurement since the dawn of time. Never mind that 25,000 households (with some that don't even participate in the actual process) represent 110 million households.

      The system will stay in place as long as advertising execs can claim their strategies are increasing sales revenue of the companies paying for the ad space.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:18AM EST
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      dead souls It's not going to happen anytime soon. Television shows still generate the lion's share of their profit from advertising. Nielsen ratings are used to determine how many people are watching the ads.

      People watching on DVR weeks later, or buying the shows on Itunes account for an absolutely minuscule amount of revenue. Until that changes, Nielsen numbers remain key.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:30AM EST
    • I am a prophet!!!

      May 11, 2011 at 11:37AM EST
    • Austin_03_final_talkback_profile

      Teebore I guess my question is, when non-traditional viewing DOES increase from minuscule (5-10-25-50-whatever years from now), will the networks THEN alter their strategy, or still stick their head in the sand and claim Nielsen is perfect?

      Also, if the networks are stuck with Nielsen, why not increase the number of households with a box? I would literally PAY THEM to have one.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:57AM EST
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      Chrissy What's interesting to me about the ratings issue is that the very people that advertisers claim to want (18-49 with disposable income) are the most likely to be watching shows through alternate means like TIVO or Netflix. Not finding a way to market to them and count them seems like a monumental error.

      May 11, 2011 at 12:43PM EST
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      dead souls The problem is that the networks need to find a way to monetize non-traditional viewing. Until they do that it will remain largely meaningless in terms of whether or not a show is renewed.

      You can't blame the networks for making the financially correct decision in the current marketplace.

      May 11, 2011 at 1:11PM EST
    • @Dead Souls,

      "You can't blame the networks for making the financially correct decision in the current marketplace." The only reason non-traditional viewing has this generalized stigma of non-importance is due to the very same networks claiming that they "can't monetize" them.

      Yet every major network has ad-based streaming media of all of their content on their websites. More and more studios are striking deals with third party carriers like Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, etc. The major networks lost half of their tv season a few years back because they wouldn't give up online residuals for the writers. Why would they care about something that they can't turn a profit with?

      The broadcast networks had a monopoly with over the air broadcasting for a long, long time. The paradigm started shifting years ago when cable came along and now that everything is going digital they've lost their monopoly. The networks know exactly how to "monetize" non-traditional viewing, they just don't like the idea of sharing that revenue with other companies that have cornered the new marketplace.

      They've already lost the war, they're just stalling the negotiations of their surrender.




      May 11, 2011 at 1:55PM EST
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      El Knid These days, the networks really do take in a lot more ratings data than just the Nielsens, it just doesn't get talked about as much because the numbers aren't publicly available to all programmers and the press. Ever cable company tracks when any one of their cable boxes' channel is changed, any show is set to be DVRed, and even when anyone pauses and rewinds live TV, and all of this data gets sold. They also know exactly how many times someone's watched a full episode on Hulu or the network's site, on Netflix, and, of course, bought an episode or show off itunes.

      The Nielsens were necessary because the old over-the-airwaves TV technology was strictly one-way. Now that almost all television-watching is done via two-way digital media, the networks don't need to get permission to put a special box in your home to track your tv watching habits -- but everyone pretends they still do, because we all like to pretend that we still have much more privacy than we actually do.

      May 11, 2011 at 2:11PM EST
    • The thing is, *I* don't want to watch the same commercials. That's why I watch On-Demand or on DVD where until recently, I could fast forward through the same commercials (how many times do I have to hear the woman whisper about a Dodge Town and Country, really?). Sure this is how TV gets its money -- but they have to figure out a different way. I won't pay even 99 cents to watch a re-run. I have to say I'm dismayed at the cuts made. *I* liked No Ordinary Family, *I* liked The Chicago Code, and I loved Lie to Me. I will probably try other networks' offerings since Fox cancelled the reason I watched it (thankfully, Bones is on for at least another year). I personally hate the Sunday night lineup -- I am smart enough to find other things to do with my life that watch that cr**. I will NOT watch the X-Factor, I don't and never have watched American Idol, I have never watched, willingly, any of the reality stuff they have on now. I love stuff like Numb3rs and things like Criminal Minds (which I started watching for Shemar Moore and now I watch to see the perv of the week). I don't necessarily care for *cop* shows, I LOATHE Law & Order in every version of the show. Sadly, I came to BTVS in season 5, but I watch that and Angel every chance I get.

      Putting it more succinctly, Fox has screwed up. If I had read that Fringe had also been canceled, I don't know that I would ever watch Fox again (I DVR House, LOL). I'm really ticked over Lie to Me and The Chicago Code. I'm REALLY ticked. Just when I was getting used to watching them. I'll go watch reruns on SyFi or another network such as that, rather than watch any of the cr** on any of the four networks until they understand that I am a fairly intelligent over 45 with disposable income, but no matter how many times they show me those same commercials, I won't buy it if I don't want it in the first place.

      So there, FOX. You were a good alternative for a while, but for three shows I wouldn't watch you at all. When you cancel those last three shows I watch unless there is something else truly good, I'm gone from your network. For good.

      May 16, 2011 at 12:46PM EST
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      webdiva It's not just the ratings measures -- they may even be a minor issue. It's that potential viewers have many more things they could be doing than watching TV. In the days of M*A*S*H, Ed Sullivan and Perry Mason, nobody lost viewers to Playstations or computers. Think about it: how many eyes are lost to Facebook, Twitter, e-mail, and all those other digital preoccupations that we didn't have even 10 years ago? THAT's your competition, right there. Which ought to make older viewers who aren't digitally obsessed more valuable to advertisers and ratings firms, but they're not.

      Alan is right: the rules have changed completely, and TV execs haven't caught on that their business model is under siege. We in journalism already know that, but we don't have a workable business model to support online news -- and someone DOES have to pay for what we do. Eyes on the page isn't enough. So it is now with TV shows; the viewership has changed its behavior, but the networks haven't caught on and/or don't know what to do about it. This is why they give new shows such a short time to make it to a desired ratings level, not realizing that they're losing viewers to other **activities**, NOT so much other channels. And there's no going back, either. Those big viewerships are never coming back to weeknight TV watching -- to the Olympics broadcasts, World Series and the Super Bowl, maybe, but not to evening watching. Get used to it.

      May 16, 2011 at 7:42PM EST
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    Clay

    Maybe given a choice, networks will always take the easiest and cheapest choice. Alan, I agree with you that FOX does have a track record of trying different things but they are also handful of shows away from being an entirely cartoon/reality based network.

    I have no idea what the actual production costs are for various shows or how much money each individual show is bringing in. But from an outsiders perspective it seems that as long as FOX can continue to sell advertising at the rate it does for ridiculous schlock like "Kitchen Nightmares," they're going to keep doing it. It looks cheap to produce and the only person they're actually paying is Gordon Ramsey. If five people watch that show it's a win-win for the network.

    So with all due respect to the legion of producers that will inform you of "their best development season ever," it's not going to make a lick of difference. A show like "Terra Nova," is already dead before it's aired because it costs money. Abrams' "Alcatraz," is never going to pull a big enough number to compare to the bundle of pure cash that the X Factor will bring in. Renewals of shows like "Fringe" and "Chuck," are considered gifts from the networks. Get ready for more dancing, cooking and singing.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:52AM EST Reply to Comment
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      Sarah Don't a lot of networks balance the two out, though? Since some shows are so cheap to produce and still get decent numbers, networks have a bit of leeway to keep the more expensive shows that don't get as much.

      I don't think NBC's success with "The Voice" spells imminent death for the less popular shows. If anything, I think it would help delay the end of some shows.

      May 11, 2011 at 3:50PM EST
    • I'm with Sarah. If FOX didn't have Idol bringing in the bucks do you think they'd even bother giving something like Fringe a shot?

      May 11, 2011 at 5:23PM EST
    • I'm with Sarah. If FOX didn't have Idol bringing in the bucks do you think they'd even bother giving something like Fringe a shot?

      May 11, 2011 at 5:23PM EST
    • Has the percentage of reality programs on the broadcast networks gone up or down over the last decade? Take a look at Fox's program list. 13 out of 28 shows feature actual actors and scripts.
      Cartoons=cheap. Reality=cheap.

      Yet, I'm supposed to feel honored that FOX has given Fringe an extra season. Even though it's fan base had to engage in multiple "save our show" campaigns and endure massive levels of Sprint/Ford advertising. If FOX or any other network were using the profits from their reality money makers to fund "artistic" projects then no fan base would have to annoy all their friends to keep there show on the air. But FOX has no interest in losing money... on anything.

      May 11, 2011 at 7:12PM EST
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    Teklanika

    IMO, the new shows simply were not very good. I watched Chicago Code and Lonestar and thought both of them were decent but not must see TV. And those were the best of the new shows.

    I also watch Hawaii 5-0 but mostly for the comedic acting of Steve McGarrett. What, he's not trying to be funny with all the overacting?

    If the two best shows created this year, Terriers and Lights Out, both couldn't make it, what chance did mediocre crap have on network TV?

    Just a bad year for the networks. They need to do better.

    May 11, 2011 at 10:55AM EST Reply to Comment
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      Mark S. I agree with this sentiment. There wasn't one new show on any of the major networks that I was thrilled with. I gave a half dozen of them a chance, but I only made it to episode 5 on one of them. Overall it wasn't a great year and no one should be surprised at the cancellations.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:11AM EST
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      Big Kahuna I would agree with this if it wasn't for Bob's Burgers, which is a good new show that I think has already been renewed

      May 11, 2011 at 7:26PM EST
  • Austin_03_final_talkback_profile

    Teebore

    Not that I'm saying anything that hasn't already been said, but how much of the networks' relatively unsuccessful season can be attributed to the outmoded systems of determining viewership? As more and more TV goes DVRed/online streaming/Netflixed/etc. and more and more people watch it in ways that can't be gauged by a handful of Nielsen boxes, isn't it possible that most/all seasons moving forward will be, relatively speaking, bad? If the networks continue to rely on Nielsen to determine the success of a show, and more and more viewers simply bypass Nielsen, will any future shows be able to survive?

    May 11, 2011 at 10:56AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Online viewing (or other alternatives) will always be dismissed and devalued by the big networks because they don't own or have a stranglehold on the medium. Broadcast networks and Nielsen have had a wonderfully profitable system in place for years tracking live-tv numbers. Things like DVR, online viewing and downloads were not their creations but rather something they've had to react to and incorporate.

      Netflix is starting to make TV shows. Netflix only cares about online viewing because that's where all their viewers are watching.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:59AM EST
    • The networks only cares about revenue streams that make them money. DVR's do not do this, online streaming is a drop in the ocean, netflix again is a drop in the ocean.

      May 11, 2011 at 2:25PM EST
    • Jim that "drop in the ocean" Netflix is a multi-billion dollar company that's only getting bigger and is about to launch original programming next year. CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX are all praying that Google doesn't have the stomach to get into the content business. Drop in the ocean? NBC had to be bailed out by Comcast, a broadband company.

      Please don't let facts get in the way of your wonderful stories.

      May 11, 2011 at 2:45PM EST
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      Claire Clay, Netflix might make a great deal of money (most of it more related to movies than TV shows), but that doesn't mean that the networks get a lot of money from Netflix.

      May 11, 2011 at 5:18PM EST
    • Claire, I think you may be underestimating how much TV gets watched via Netflix. They outbid HBO and AMC for a 26-episode tv serial "House of Cards," for 2012. Not a feature film.

      And there is this notion that I'm supposed to care what kind of revenue streams are the most profitable for broadcast networks and studios. If the cut that the big four are getting from online third party ventures isn't profitable to the point of being inconsequential to their programming decisions then they shouldn't be allowing it at all. Just stream the episodes on your own online venue and reap all of the rewards. Don't allow your audience three or four different ways to watch your product if that isn't a viable business model.

      Essentially, out of loyalty to a network I should pick the most profitable revenue stream for that particular network since they were unable to strike a good deal in the other revenue streams. Right? I want to watch good content. I don't care who's getting paid for the online residuals. TV seems to be the only industry that can't make the digital migration work for them.

      May 11, 2011 at 6:53PM EST
    • Netflix is not as profitable as you think it is. It currently has margins at about 14 percent and that is with extremely favorable rights fees that where signed a few years back. As these fees come up for renewal they are going to eat into the margins dramatically. They had to take the chance on House of Cards because they know they are not going to be able to keep all the content they currently have and have to have a hook to keep subscribers happy.

      The above still does not change that netlix and hulu viewers are a extremely tiny percentage of the overall viewership of any episode and an even smaller percentage of revenue going to the network or studio.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:21PM EST
    • @Jim Meyers,

      Broadcast networks and their conglomerates are at best operating at 18-19% (with profitability growth rates trending downward) You're not the only person with google.

      May 12, 2011 at 2:43PM EST
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      webdiva Clay, it's like I said above: the networks, both broadcast and cable, *aren't* in control of the medium anymore, nor can they control the viewers. They may hate it, but they can't afford to ignore online viewing and services like Netflix because VIEWERS ARE NEVER GOING BACK TO THE OLD WAY OF WATCHING. Period. Yes indeedy, the rules *have* changed. Fox may make it impossible for me to scroll past the ads with On Demand programs, but I can always mute the volume on my TV or laptop -- they can't stop *that.* So the networks will have to figure out how to get that revenue another way, find a new business model, or simply make do with less money -- like the rest of us have to in this lousy economy. Which is probably the New Normal from now on. Welcome to rude reality. (I didn't mean as in reality shows, either, but perhaps we should have network and programming execs exiled out to the island on Survivor and just leave them there to figure things outs. Or not ...)

      May 16, 2011 at 7:59PM EST
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    Jesse

    This is somewhat off-topic, but I'd love to see Alan (or someone in the industry) explain why television still uses the antiquated concept of Nielsen ratings.

    It's hard to believe that the system has stayed pretty much the same since 1950 when everything else in the world (let alone television) has changed so much.

    Is the Nielsen system really the best thing networks (and companies who buy advertising) have to measure success?

    May 11, 2011 at 10:57AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Commish

    Alan I think you hit the nail on the head with your second to last paragraph...we are seeing the end of the "network effect" as viewership is becoming fragmented and increasingly watched on a delay. With each passing year what comes on before or after a show has a smaller effect. Sure there are still exceptions to the rule, but the American Idols of the world don't keep viewers hanging around like they used to.

    May 11, 2011 at 11:05AM EST Reply to Comment
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    the old proofreader

    Your description of Fox as a supporter of unlikely shows seems heartfelt, but why then you do keep SHOUTING its NAME?

    May 11, 2011 at 11:07AM EST Reply to Comment
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      sepinwall It's house style. The other networks go in all-caps, and so does FOX. (Also an easy way to differentiate the network from the studio, which we refer to as Fox.)

      May 11, 2011 at 11:08AM EST
    • Easy there, cowboy. It's just a name.

      May 11, 2011 at 8:23PM EST
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    Jobin

    Why wouldn't Fox try to launch more shows mid-season, using Idol as a lead-in?

    The fall schedule is packed with new shows, and Fox is handicapped with the flux in its schedule caused by the playoff baseball coverage.

    By the time mid-season rolls around, most of the new-shows have either failed and been pulled, have dwindling ratings, or in the extreme case are an actual hit.

    Hence, when mid-season rolls around people are looking for new shows to give a chance to, and its odd that Fox isn't using that and Idol to launch more new shows (and not just crappy half-hour fill in comedies to finish off the Idol results nights).

    May 11, 2011 at 11:13AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Jason Potapoff

    I think the problem is the downward spiral that the networks are in. The people who enjoy quality drama or SF shows no longer look for that on network TV, they turn to cable and DVD's for that. The typical network TV audience likes sitcoms, reality shows and other bubblegum fare. So a lot of the people who would actually want to watch the quality shows are no longer watching network tv and are not seeing the ads for shows they would watch. Another large portion are like me, they don't believe that quality tv will ever be on network again so doubt that the new shows will be as good as the trailers/hype make it sound or don't want to get into a show only to have the network yank it off the air before it shows the whole season (or increasingly after a few episodes). For those people they wait to see if it lasts a season (and buy or rent it on DVD) or like what i did with Chicago Code, record it and wait a couple of weeks to make sure that show will last longer than 2 episodes before taking the chance on it. That's probably killing these shows' premier episode's ratings (why watch a show's first episode when there is a good chance the network will pull the show off the air in a week or two? Better wait to see how well it's received before committing to it).
    The only reason why I took the chance this season and watched network TV was either due to the premise (The Cape and No Ordinary Family even though I knew that neither would last past the season) or with Chicago Code the reviews were strong and there was a lull in my regular TV viewing at the time so I recorded it, waited to see if it would stay on the air after 3 episodes then watched it. Had the HBO shows been running at that time or Dr. Who I bet I wouldn't have bothered.

    May 11, 2011 at 11:14AM EST Reply to Comment
    • I have to agree with the majority of your argument, Jason. I think that to a great extent cable dramas and shows like Lost (regardless of any person's individual regard for its end) spoiled viewers for stable serialized high quality programming. Unfortunately, the very nature of network television is chaotic.

      I've heard too many complaints from too many friends and family that the show they loved was canceled 2, 5, or 13 episodes in - often without any real closure. Many of these people simply refuse to just leap into a new show (especially a non-procedural or joke-of-the-week-sitcom) out of some sort of once-bit paranoia.

      On the flip side, HBO is renewing even relatively low-rated shows like Treme only one to two weeks after the premiere, and AMC and FX are debuting risky new innovative show after risky new innovative show. And even when these shows aren't renewed (see: Terriers, Lights Out, Rubicon), they're still allowed to play out their full string. I think the primary problem then goes beyond quality or censorship or even necessarily premise... it's trust. The average viewer with cable or satellite feels they can trust cable programming but not network television, and that's a problem that I don't think is fixable given the very immutable nature of the network TV business.

      On a side note, thanks for the perspective on FOX, Alan. It's a point I often initially gloss over in my frustration at their reputation. Well written article.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:32AM EST
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      JanieJones Josh-completely agree with your comments.

      I think Nielsen ratings are archaic. I utilize my dvr for most programming sans premium cable shows. I do not understand why the ratings system hasn't evolved like many other mediums.

      I think Alan's perspective is good one.

      May 11, 2011 at 12:08PM EST
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      JanieJones Josh-completely agree with your comments.

      I think Nielsen ratings are archaic. I utilize my dvr for most programming sans premium cable shows. I do not understand why the ratings system hasn't evolved like many other mediums.

      I think Alan's perspective is good one.

      May 11, 2011 at 12:08PM EST
    • HBO runs a different business model. Basically they only care that you pay the 15 bucks a month to subscribe to the channel. Ratings only matter to them in that its a guide to see what shows are popular enough to gain new subscribers and keep their current subscribers. A HBO show can have 5 million viewers but have no real effect on subscribers while another show can have half the audience but that is a new audience that subscribed to HBO just for that show making it a much bigger hit for them.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:26PM EST
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    sangs

    Amen Alan.

    And I still get perplexed by people that rip FOX for canceling "AD." They gave it three years, it won an Emmy and still nobody watched. What exactly was FOX to do?

    None of these "bubbles shows" were that good quite frankly. They ruined "Human Target" this past season with all the women (not being sexist, just factual); "Lie to Me" was good in the beginning, but really, how many times to the same well; and the plusses and many minuses of "The Chicago Code" are being debated in the other thread.

    Oh and poor Christian Slater. Nothing that guy does works anymore.

    May 11, 2011 at 11:17AM EST Reply to Comment
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      ileasa I like that FOX takes risks but they dont allow the shows time to gain viewers. I liked Breaking In it was kind of a rip off of Leverage which I like even better than Breaking In.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:53AM EST
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      Teebore Yeah, my frustration and anger at the cancellation of AD has little to do with FOX and much to do with the idiotic viewing public who refused to watch it. FOX gave it more of a chance than many shows get.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:54AM EST
    • What more could FOX do for these shows that are canceled? HT, Lie and Chicago Code all had great time slots with great lead ins, massive ad campaigns at some point in their run.

      May 11, 2011 at 2:32PM EST
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    Dwayne Mendoza

    As someone said in the other post, I don't understand the logic at work here. If I have a show that's really unique and unusual-- not like anything else-- I'm going to figure that it will need some time to build a following. This was true when there were only three channels on content for people to investigate, so you'd figure it would be even more necessary with eleventy-jillion channels out there.

    Plus Fox works under the handicap that a lot of people who like edgy shows really don't like Rupert Murdoch and Fox Mews, so they won't pop over there without a strong reason.

    But Fox seems to think it can give a show a huge promotional blast (or stick it behind one of their hits) and wait a few weeks. And if that doesn't work, start the process over again with another show.

    It's not like ABC or NBC are that brilliant (CBS does seem to have a good strategy, even if I don't like most of their content), but Fox seems to assume that people are avidly following every programming change.

    May 11, 2011 at 11:28AM EST Reply to Comment
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      Jason Potapoff Exactly. That's another reason why the cable shows do well. They are usually given time for the audience to find them. Look at how often HBO reruns episodes, then re-shows the entire season again, IN ORDER, after the first run to catch of those people who didn't get on board from the start but want to tune in after hearing the buzz.
      Networks expect the audience to instantly bond to a show and everyone that might be interested in the show to pay attention to the schedules and follow along as the shows are moved around constantly. Even when a network is pushing a show by premiering it on after a hit then moves it to it's regular slot are assuming that the audience is paying enough attention to scheduling to see the change. The ones that are immune to that (PVR and TiVO users) aren't being counted in the ratings. Somehow, when it's clear that these types of people are no longer regularly watching network tv, these people are supposed to be aware of the existence of these shows and know when they are on simply by the ads placed on network tv which the target audience are probably never going to see.

      May 11, 2011 at 11:40AM EST
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    adolfo

    Great article. It put Fox in a different light for me. 75% of the shows I currently watch are on Fox. If only they did something about Fox Neews. Sigh.

    May 11, 2011 at 11:31AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Matt W

    "..."Human Target" came back for a second season (after being an iffy renewal to begin with) with a creative makeover none of its small cadre of fans liked."

    ----------------------------------------------------

    As a regular watcher of 'Human Target, the first season was fantastic. Season 2 was abysmal after they added the two women in and added some romance between Chance/Ilsa into the storylines. If I wanted to see romance, I would go back to watching old 'Friends' episodes. Heck, Ilsa even "got off the plane" in the final episode. Sound familiar?

    Much better when it was only the three guys kicking ass. I'm not shedding any tears over 'Human Target.'

    May 11, 2011 at 11:32AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Fraggle Rock Me Amadeus

    Well said, Alan.

    This article should be required reading for each and every reactionary Twitter or comment section person freaking out right now.

    Sepinwall NAILED IT. The only reason you notice Fox cancel shows that you like more than other networks is that the other networks are not taking chances on the types of genre and niche shows that you guys like!

    Internet people (the minority amongst actual tv viewers) don't get upset about CBS canceling shows they like because CBS doesn't do shows for people under 60 for the most part. They don't complain about NBC, because NBC is in such a terrible state that it has to keep small niche fan favorites like Community and Parks and Rec simply because it has no other options.

    Fox takes chances. Which you all should be thankful for. As Sep pointed out, you'd never have gotten any of the Arrested Development or Firefly, that you all complain about not getting more of, in the first place. Nor would you have had a show like Fringe.

    Fox should be commended for trying shows outside of the extremely narrow forumlas that the other networks are so terrified to sneak out of. But at the same time, it could be argued that Fox doing so is in fact a poor business decision. They are making shows that appeal to us in these little corners of the internet. That's great. But they are also making shows that most of the country clearly doesn't care for. Fox is almost going about it's business as if it were a cable network and programming for USA/FX like niche audiences. When it is sadly supposed to be going for the more middle america/older/more average and casual tv viewer. I don't like it. But with the type of money behind Fox, and the kind of ratings their advertisers and department heads demand. It's the reality of the situation.

    Lesson learned to people up in arms? In today's fickle age of network tv, do not get attached to any show on the big 4. Unless it's killing in the ratings. Stick with cable. Even then you are not guaranteed to be safe (Terriers). But at least your odds are a good deal better.

    May 11, 2011 at 11:44AM EST Reply to Comment
    • I agree. Even some of FOX's biggest hits like The X-Files, 24, House, and Glee probably would've been lucky to make it to the pilot stage on the other networks. They're the one network that will consistently take chances. Some of those chances pan out, like the four I just mentioned, and some don't.

      May 11, 2011 at 12:19PM EST
    • I agree. Even some of FOX's biggest hits like The X-Files, 24, House, and Glee probably would've been lucky to make it to the pilot stage on the other networks. They're the one network that will consistently take chances. Some of those chances pan out, like the four I just mentioned, and some don't.

      May 11, 2011 at 12:19PM EST
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    Hot Pocket Samurai

    First off, Sepinwell is right. It isn't that Fox is worse than other networks. It's that it takes bigger risks and programs shows that would actually appeal to small groups of passionate fans as opposed to vaguely appeal to much larger ones. Look at the other networks. CBS is king of network tv. And most of it's shows are boring and bland. People on the internet don't champion them, because they aren't in the targeted demo of 75 and older. The other networks are beyond safe in terms of the tv shows they are programming. And it's only getting worse. Fox, for all it's faults, has at least taken shots at shows that don't fit into the standard formulas that the other networks are too rigid or scared to go away from.

    Secondarily, I get that networks have to axe poorly drawing shows. But doesn't it seem that we have entered a new age of tv ratings? Ratings across the board have been dropping for years. Are we to believe that tv has just taken a nose dive in quality (which it hasn't)? Or is it that, as with everything in today's internet, high paced, social networked, ADD culture, that audiences are segmented way beyond what they were back in the days of great network ratings? It's no different with the movie box office. Hollywood movies across the board bring in less and less. THE AUDIENCES HAVE TOO MANY CHOICES NOW DAYS!!! There is so much out there, be it on the 500 tv channels we have, multiple ways to take in media and entertainment, or you know, this internet thing! This isn't the old days where the big networks were able to corner their market and produce hits by accident. Today's entertainment climate is so different. The standards for what a "hit" or "success" is needs to change. There's a reason the failure rate on tv shows is as high as it is right now. These networks have unrealistic expectations given how segmented the viewership is. And don't get me started on Nielsen ratings. The way television operates needs a serious overhaul.

    As the deseased WWF wrestler Owen Hart used to say, "Enough is Enough. And it's time for a change."

    May 11, 2011 at 12:00PM EST Reply to Comment
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      Tyler I think the last bit of your post is a bit wrong. I don't believe the failure rate for tv shows is any higher than it was in the past. I looked at the 1983-84 network schedule (random choice) and that year ABC canceled 15 shows, CBS canceled 13 shows, and NBC canceled 16 shows. Plenty of shows were canceled in the past and the measure for a hit or a success has certainly changed. The fact is that television shows have always been a means for delivering commercials and, as of right now, the Nielsen system is the best we have for measuring commercial viewing rates.

      May 11, 2011 at 1:01PM EST
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    verver

    I think that Fringe is the only show that will be left for me on Fox.

    May 11, 2011 at 12:05PM EST Reply to Comment
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    George P

    Alan.. I didn’t love The Chicago Code, but I did like it, I was in the camp that the show great people involved in front and behind the camera, a lot of potential and good premise.. but was failing in execution, and underachieving.. having said that is there absolutely no chance we could see a second season on another network or even in cable ?

    May 11, 2011 at 12:17PM EST Reply to Comment
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    LesIsMore

    "Shows get canceled. All the time. But if you decide en masse you're turning your back on the biggest risk-taker left in broadcast TV, then that decreases the chances that the risks will continue, and then we'll only get even more reality, more straight-forward, generic procedurals, etc." Well said Alan. Thanks for being a voice of reason in the aftermath of last night.

    Personally, I wasn't particularly invested in any of these five shows to any degree, and I can see why FOX would decide to clear house in favor of starting something new. "The Chicago Code" probably had the most potential out of the five, but even it wasn't really taking off the way it needed to. "Lie to Me" and "Human Target" just didn't have the buzz they needed and never had any traction (I'm amazed "Human Target" didn't go to die on Fridays at the start of the season), no one really wanted to watch another Christian Slater show, and "Traffic Light" was just in the category of "white people in relationships hanging out" that grew like a fungus in the back of the refridgerator this year. (Speaking of, this makes two down in that category - anyone want to take odds on "Happy Endings" and "Mad Love?")

    And as you said, there was good news - four seasons of "Fringe" had astronomical odds to ever happen, and "Raising Hope's" a show that has a solid cast and comfort with its storylines. And you forgot to mention that FOX also gave "Bob's Burgers" a second season as well, another show that had a lot of niche appeal and is getting better each week but that doesn't do terribly well in the ratings.

    So for fans of these shows, yeah it sucks, but there's flickers of hope on the fringe (maybe with burgers too). And who knows, maybe this will be the "best development season ever" and we'll not even miss them next year!

    Nah, on reflection I'm still going to miss having Jennifer Beals and Chi McBride on my television. Someone should give those two a show, and make Christian Slater the wacky sidekick.

    May 11, 2011 at 12:20PM EST Reply to Comment


  • I think it's a severe case of formula; your biggest hits in the previous 10 years were cop, investigation, vampire, comedy families, and superheroes that people are getting tired of them. Of course those described above is a small part of formula - the new shows, Walking Dead, Borgias, Game of Thrones, the Big C, and etc were big hits because they deviated from formulas. Formulas is easy to get attached to because they seem to "guarantee" success when it only lasts for so long. And formulas doesn't only describe a genre type of shows but anything else - characters, plots, and so forth. This is why the producers of Ally McBeal/Harry's Law are both so bland because they fave formulas since their very first series were hits.

    May 11, 2011 at 12:24PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Fringe for example: It took the formula of the "X-Files" and ran with it. So, they deviated from formula and suddenly, it's facing a fourth season this fall with success with me grinning from ear to ear when I hear "Previously on Fringe" along with its theme song soon after!

      May 11, 2011 at 12:27PM EST
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      Joacko Your entire premise is wrong. None of the shows you list as new big hits were much of hits at all. they were all smallish cable niche shows that did good for cable. hardly merits being mentioned in a discussion about failing network tv shows.

      May 11, 2011 at 9:26PM EST
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      Benjamin Kabak premise wrong. only 1 thats a big hit is walking dead. plus they r all on cable. HUGE difference

      May 12, 2011 at 11:35AM EST
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    Mark

    "Maybe people just didn't want to watch a cop show starring Jennifer Beals..."

    Bingo. I watched the first two episodes, and just wasn't buying her in that role. The accent she was putting on wasn't doing her any favours either.

    May 11, 2011 at 12:25PM EST Reply to Comment
    • It's weird to think that a biracial woman born and raised on the south side Chicago couldn't believably play a biracial woman born and raised on the south side of Chicago.

      May 11, 2011 at 2:17PM EST
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      Jason Potapoff It reminds me of that episode of the Bionic Woman where the character pretended to be British and people complained about her fake British accent. Forgetting the fact that the actress was British and that accent was her real accent and the American accent she used normally was the "fake accent".

      May 12, 2011 at 10:40PM EST
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    Kelly

    I understand that TV is a business and that lower rated shows get canceled. I would have an easier time accepting it if it were consistent. Instead a show I like gets canceled for having better ratings than one that gets renewed. Sorry to Fringe, but its ratings are just about CW low and if its all about ratings it should be done. Its not just Fox, its tiring to keep getting invested in shows that never make it. I think next season I am going to skip all new network shows. There's DVDs to catch up for shows that sound interesting and are granted a season 2. Its not like anyone without a Neilsen box matters and its less time spent investing in shows that are yanked off the air.

    May 11, 2011 at 12:38PM EST Reply to Comment


  • In the case of Human Target they mucked around with the show way too much. It was working just fine as it was. I used to be a fan but it was unwatchable with the changes.

    I am very disappointed Breaking In is gone. One of the funnier shows of the season. I never failed to laugh out loud

    May 11, 2011 at 12:42PM EST Reply to Comment
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Alan Sepinwall

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All through his childhood, Alan Sepinwall's relatives told his parents, "All that boy does is watch television! How's he going to make a living doing that?" His career as a TV critic has been 15 years and counting of his attempt to answer their concerns. "What's Alan Watching" is a blog whose title is self-explanatory: Alan watches TV shows, then writes about what he watched. He can be reached at sepinwall@hitfix.com

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