Emmys '11 Predictions: Outstanding Drama Series
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The 2011 Primetime Emmy Awards are on Sunday, and it's the final time for Fienberg and I to discuss whom we think should and will win(*) some of the major categories. For our last entry, it's time to look at the nominees for Outstanding Comedy Series.
(*) As always, we remind you we do not have impressive track records at prognostication. Place your wagers (or, preferably not) accordingly.
"Boardwalk Empire"
"Dexter"
"Friday Night Lights"
"Game of Thrones"
"The Good Wife"
"Mad Men"
Should win
Alan's pick: No "Breaking Bad" this year, but it's a very deep field nonetheless. "Friday Night Lights" went out very strong, "Game of Thrones" and "Boardwalk Empire" had terrific debut seasons and "The Good Wife" continued to prove you can do cable-style moral complexity on a broadcast network. (On the other hand, "Dexter" keeps being nominated out of inertia, as opposed to a show genuinely at the top of its game like "Justified.") Still, even though it's predictable to say it, the most deserving show in the field is "Mad Men," which blew Don Draper's life to pieces and presented some of its most memorable episodes dealing with the wreckage and then rebirth.
Dan's pick: "Mad Men" was No. 1 on my Best of 2010 list, so it's gonna be my personal preference for Emmy glory. I don't especially care that it's "boring" for "Mad Men" to win every year, because if "Mad Men" deserves to win, "Mad Men" deserves to win. In this case, though, it's not like there isn't competition. "Friday Night Lights" had a splendid fifth and final season. "Boardwalk Empire" made my Top 10 list for last year and "Game of Thrones" is going to make my Top 10 list this year. Would I prefer to see "Justified" in this group over "Dexter" and "The Good Wife"? Sure. But no matter what permutation of field you put in there, I'm gonna favor "Mad Men."
Will win
Alan's pick: Until presented overwhelming evidence otherwise, I'm going to assume "Mad Men" will win this every year it's on the air. It's too much the perfect Emmy storm: nostalgia for the older voters, cutting-edge drama for the younger ones, excellence for everyone.
Dan's pick: The overwhelming evidence Alan seeks is all in the corner of "Boardwalk Empire" and it includes the Golden Globe win, the Screen Actors Guild ensemble win, the seven Creative Arts Emmys, the inevitable win for Martin Scorsese and the collective might of the HBO Emmy team, which hasn't had a drama this strong to push in years. "Boardwalk Empire" wins.
What do you think?
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All through his childhood, Alan Sepinwall's relatives told his parents, "All that boy does is watch television! How's he going to make a living doing that?" His career as a TV critic has been 15 years and counting of his attempt to answer their concerns. "What's Alan Watching" is a blog whose title is self-explanatory: Alan watches TV shows, then writes about what he watched. He can be reached at sepinwall@hitfix.com
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September 15, 2011 at 9:22AM EST Reply to CommentWould be a shame if Boardwalk Empire beat Mad Men. I have no doubt that Boardwalk will get better... but considering it was the first seasons and took some bumps, and Mad Men was hitting on all cylindars, I can't see Mad Men not taking it. With that being said - Out of Boardwalk and Thrones, I personally think Thrones had a better first season, and could see it potentially winning, if voters were to step out of the box a little. (which we all know is impossible)
loretta Agreed. I really enjoy Boardwalk, but I don't think it had the stellar first season that people have been saying. In my personal ranking,(1) is Mad Men, (2) is FNL, and (3) is Boardwalk (with Game of Thrones a close fourth). Coming in third among this kind of competition is nothing to be ashamed of, but I'm still expecting to be kind of peeved when Boardwalk (inevitably IMO) wins.
September 15, 2011 at 10:13AM ESTLJA I'm with Champskins. Mad Men wins. And between Boardwalk and Thrones, Thrones was the better show.
September 15, 2011 at 11:16AM ESTCol Bat Guano I gave up on Boardwalk about 2/3's of the way in while I loved Thrones. I just didn't care about any of the characters on Boardwalk to keep watching.
September 15, 2011 at 2:11PM ESTJoe Agreed on both Mad Men deserving the win, & Thrones>Boardwalk. I watched both HBO shows on demand & while I enjoyed it I'd go weeks between episodes of Boardwalk, as opposed to Thrones which I finished in less than two days.
September 15, 2011 at 4:18PM EST
September 15, 2011 at 4:23PM EST
September 15, 2011 at 4:23PM ESTPopCandy I think Boardwalk also had very serious pacing problems, and surely was not a tame show. I won't deny that the sexposition was a bit much, but at least on Thrones you could say that the nudity had a purpose, even if the purpose was giving something for the viewers to look at, but on Boardwalk I had to look at Paz de la Huerta's boobs almost every episode just for the sake of it.
September 15, 2011 at 4:36PM EST
September 15, 2011 at 4:51PM ESTI think my problem with the 'sexposition' in GoT is that, really, I suspect HBO has a boobage quota to fill but Martin's treatment of sex and sexuality is a lot more sophisticated and thoughtful. And while 'Games' was always going to be a tough piece to adapt to television, in the first half of the season I think they were (ironically enough) trying too hard to be faithful to the book without really grasping that works on the page doesn't always cross over to a visual medium.
Eric @ popcandy - You said, "at least on Thrones you could say that the nudity had a purpose, even if the purpose was giving something for the viewers to look at, but on Boardwalk I had to look at Paz de la Huerta's boobs almost every episode just for the sake of it."
September 15, 2011 at 5:56PM ESTI have no idea what that means. Is the nudity on BE not also "giving something for the viewers to look at"?
PopCandy Sorry Eric, it wasn't very clear. What I meant is that on Got, boobs were there to distract the viewers from exposition, so even though we where getting a lot of boobs, we were also getting a lot of information. But on Boardwalk it was mostly just boobs.
September 16, 2011 at 5:44PM ESTZacharyTF
September 15, 2011 at 9:25AM EST Reply to CommentToo bad the Academy doesn't release vote totals because I suspect Mad Men's margin of victory to be the smallest of its four wins thanks to Boardwalk Empire.
Will win and Should win for me is Mad Men, which has been the best show on television since I watched the pilot. However, I would be over the moon if Friday Night Lights pulled off an all time upset.
Susan Why on earth would you be "over the moon" if FNL won, when you stated in the sentence prior that Mad Men is the best show on tv????
September 15, 2011 at 9:37AM ESTbrian
September 15, 2011 at 10:48AM EST Reply to CommentMad Men is/was the overall better show, but if we are just comparing the previous season, I actually think FNL was ever so slightly better. It would get my nod.
CB
September 15, 2011 at 11:51AM EST Reply to CommentI wish someone would explain what makes Boardwalk Empire such a great show. It was middling at best- I didn't feel a single emotional bond with any of the characters, and even the biggest shock of the season (Van Alden's moment in the penultimate episode) didn't end up going anywhere. I think a lot of people have a reflexive response to the show because of its pedigree, but it doesn't even hold a candle to Mad Men, Friday Night Lights, Game of Thrones, or even Good Wife.
September 15, 2011 at 12:41PM ESTElevation
September 15, 2011 at 12:53PM EST Reply to CommentBoardwalk will win because the perception of being on HBO makes a show seem better than it actually is.
Teklanika
September 15, 2011 at 1:42PM EST Reply to CommentAs great as FNL is, Mad Men had the better season. Still, I wouldn't mind if FNL won for being overlooked in the past.
PotatoSolution
September 15, 2011 at 2:23PM EST Reply to CommentGame of Thrones was fantastic and satisfied both the newbies and the fans, which seemed like an impossible task.
Boardwalk Empire started shaky, but by the end of its freshman season, it was firing on all cylinders. And it's probably the most beautifully shot TV show ever (with the possible exception of Deadwood).
But really, the only answer here is Mad Men. The fourth season brought the ruckus, and absolutely deserves another win.
John
September 15, 2011 at 2:54PM EST Reply to CommentI agree that whether or not it's "boring" for something to win year after year is a bad justification for not voting for it. This is the same logic that led to Charles Barkley and Karl Malone winning NBA MVP's over an Michael Jordan and getting eviscerated by the real MVP in the Finals. With that said, I don't think Mad Men is the best show on television. In fact, I've never thought that. It beating Breaking Bad last year was particularly egregious, as Breaking Bad turned in one of the best seasons of any drama. For this year, I think Game of Thrones was the best show (since Breaking Bad is ineligible), but I'm sure it won't win. I'm just hoping that Peter Dinklage takes home the best supporting actor Emmy.
stepat201
September 15, 2011 at 4:01PM EST Reply to CommentI'm completely shocked by the critical reception Boardwalk has received. I've watched all the best dramas of the last decade (The Wire, Sopranos, Mad Men, Breaking Bad) and I can say with no doubts that Boardwalk is no where near being in the same league as them. The show is dreary as hell (unintentionally I'm assuming). The way a show is shot is so important, and Boardwalk is one of the worst looking shows I've seen. Every frame is dark, no matter where they are, it looks like it's always storming and on top of that someone held a black veil over the camera.
But as far as the main points go, such as character, plot, etc... Boardwalk fails to truly engage in any of those departments. The characters are dull, and everything they do is completely inconsequential. Kelly Macdonald's character especially is just torturous to watch. The moment they showed her face in the crowd at the beginning of the pilot, I had a sinking feeling her expression wasn't going to change throughout the entire season, and damned if I wasn't right. She's worthless, and the fact that two of the male leads on the show are so uncontrollably drawn to her just makes me respect those characters, and the show, far less.
Anyway that was long winded but I had to get it off my chest. Boardwalk will not go down as a great show. The first season was dreary and uninteresting, and there's no way it's going to suddenly become a high caliber drama next season. Game of Thrones is the new HBO champ, but Mad Men still owns this category. I swear it's like two completely different calibers of show. With Mad Men, you have a show that's been rising higher and higher for four seasons straight, and has produced one of the most engrossing, deep, and transformative protagonists in the history of the medium. And on Boardwalk, you have a show that costs 3 times as much, yet has a tenth of the impact. Mad Men wins.
September 15, 2011 at 4:27PM ESTDifferent strokes etc. :)
Kid
September 16, 2011 at 5:03AM EST Reply to CommentI guess Boardwalk wins. It's perfect, even if not the best series I saw. It just don't look like TV show, more like great historical-gangster movie. Game Of Thrones is my best, but Empire really perfect.
justjoan123
September 16, 2011 at 12:27PM EST Reply to CommentSigh. Dan and me, Dan and me. The Grammar Police from Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago are gonna get you.
WeebeysPlasticFish
September 17, 2011 at 5:50PM EST Reply to CommentI think that Mad Men should win, but I really wouldn't be surprised if Boardwalk Empire took it because it's new, it's won other things already and it has Martin Scorsese, Steve Buscemi and gangsters.
But I think I will be more upset if Steve Buscemi takes the lead actor Emmy away from Jon Hamm than if Boardwalk Empire takes outstanding drama.