Emmy predictions: Will comedy voters crown 'Glee' or 'Modern Family'?
And which past winner will be named best comedy actress?
Larry David deserves some Emmy love for the "Seinfeld" reunion season on "Curb Your Enthusiasm."
Yesterday, I offered my predictions for the Emmy drama categories. Today, it's the comedies' turn. (And in between, Fienberg offered up his own picks. Later today, we'll be posting a podcast where we discuss all of this.)
As I explained yesterday, I'm not good at predicting this stuff, and you need to factor in that all the awards are voted on based on a single episode (for the acting/writing/directing categories) or on a handful of episodes (for the series categories), which only complicates things more. When predicting who will win, you can't just ask who was the best over the whole season. You have to look at who picked the right episode and who didn't. (You can see the full list of actor submissions here.)
After the jump, my comedy picks for who should and who will win:
Outstanding Comedy Series: "Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO), "Glee" (FOX), "Modern Family" (ABC), "Nurse Jackie" (SHO), "The Office" (NBC), "30 Rock" (NBC)
Should win: Of these six (since I was disappointed but not surprised to see a lack of nominations for "Parks and Recreation" and "Community"), "Curb" had by far the funniest season, as Larry David got to do a "Seinfeld" reunion his own terms, bringing that great comedy better closure than he provided in its own finale a decade earlier. Some of the "Seinfeld"-lite episodes were sketchy, but that group also included the hilarious "Vehicular Fellatio" and "The Bare Midriff."
Will win: You should never underestimate the inertia of Emmy voters leading to "30 Rock" winning again for a very weak season, but odds are this is going to be a coronation of one of the two hot rookies: "Modern Family" or "Glee." "Glee" got more hype, but Emmy voters on the whole tend to be conservative, and "Modern Family" is essentially a traditional family sitcom minus the laughtrack and plus a quasi-documentary format. Everyone in town - particularly everyone with a lot of comedies on their resume - seemed happy that that show's success finally put a stop to all the "Is the sitcom dead?" stories, and it may win for that alone. (And also for being awfully funny.)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock" (NBC), Steve Carell, "The Office" (NBC), Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO), Matthew Morrison, "Glee" (FOX), Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory" (CBS), Tony Shalhoub, "Monk" (USA)
Should win: It's ridiculous that Carell has yet to win one of these, but he wasn't particularly well-served by this very bad season for "The Office." Parsons deserved to win last year, but "Big Bang" this season pushed a little too far into becoming The Sheldon Show, and Parsons' work seemed stale at times as a result. But I go with David, whose work this season opposite the stiff-as-always Jerry Seinfeld was a reminder of just what a good comic actor he's become. Forget about making the choice based on a single episode; I'd argue David deserves it just for the scene where he tries to play George Costanza in the "Seinfeld" reunion special.
Will win: Baldwin seems to have a lock on the award until either "30 Rock" is canceled or he follows through on his various public promises to retire when his contract is up. But don't count out Shalhoub, who already has three Emmys for this part, and who submitted the very emotional two-part "Monk" series finale. (Voters tend to be suckers both for extra-long submissions and comedy submissions where the actors get to be dramatic, or vice versa).
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: Toni Collette, "United States of Tara" (SHO), Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie" (SHO), Tina Fey, "30 Rock" (NBC), Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine" (CBS), Lea Michele, "Glee" (FOX), Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation" (NBC)
Should win: "Parks and Recreation" went through an amazing creative transformation between its first and second seasons, going from a shaky "Office" clone to a distinct, warm and hilarious comedy that's much better than most of the Outstanding Comedy Series nominees. Much of the credit for that transformation goes to Poehler, who dialed back her character's enthusiasm from cartoonish to simply exaggerated and endearing, and who was more than happy to play point guard and set up her wonderful (and un-nominated) supporting cast. The lack of other major nominations for "Parks and Rec" suggests she doesn't have a shot at winning, but she was great.
Will win: Two-time winner Fey wisely submitted her one funny episode this season (the attempt to film a pilot episode for her talk show), but this looks like it's going to come down to last year's winner Collette versus her Emmy-approved Showtime partner Falco. Emmy voters love actors playing multiple roles, and Collette wisely submitted an episode where Tara rapidly shifts between her different personalities, but I have a feeling Falco is going to add a fourth Emmy to her mantle. Her role on "Nurse Jackie" is only sometimes comic, but as I said about Shalhoub, that can actually work to her advantage, and she's so commanding - and so unlike Carmela Soprano - that she hides a whole lot of sins on that show.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: Ty Burrell, "Modern Family" (ABC), Chris Colfer, "Glee" (FOX), Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" (CBS), Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family" (ABC), Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother" (CBS), Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family" (ABC)
Should win: I don't particularly love "Glee," but even I can recognize just how good Colfer was this year as the vulnerable heart of that series. Still, I have to go with Stonestreet, whose unapologetically hammy Cam was far and away the funniest part of "Modern Family," whether in or out of the clown makeup he wore as Fizbo.
Will win: The three "Modern Family" actors stand a very good chance of splitting the vote among fans of that show, so don't be surprised if Cryer's a repeat winner, or if the voters (who already handed him two trophies at last week's Creative Arts Emmys) finally recognize that Harris has been great for years on "HIMYM."
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: Julie Bowen, "Modern Family" (ABC), Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock" (NBC), Jane Lynch, "Glee" (FOX), Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men" (CBS), Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family" (ABC), Kristen Wiig, "Saturday Night Live" (NBC)
Should and will win: Even if the "Modern Family" actresses weren't competing with each other, they'd still likely have a hard time beating Lynch, whose ferocious and unapologetic performance made Sue Sylvester into the breakout character on the season's breakout series. The only way Lynch doesn't win is if voters aren't impressed by her submitted episode ("The Power of Madonna"), which (like most of the "Glee" actor submissions) gives her a big musical number (the recreation of the "Vogue" video) but isn't as strong a comic or dramatic showcase as some others she could have chosen. If she somehow falters, voters have demonstrated ample love for Taylor in the past.
Alan Sepinwall may be reached at sepinwall@hitfix.com
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupCol Bat Guano
August 27, 2010 at 8:43AM EST Reply to CommentWho should really win Best Series? Community.
Who of the nominees should win? Modern Family.
Who will win and annoy the bejesus out of me? Glee.
Also, if Jon Cryer wins another Emmy, then Neil Harris should just retire.
gsmith140
August 27, 2010 at 9:35AM EST Reply to CommentIf you see Jon Cryer on a nominees list and not Nick Offerman, then you know these awards are a joke.
Sandra
August 27, 2010 at 9:48AM EST Reply to CommentIt’s hard for me to even care about the comedy side without Community and Parks & Rec. All of these categories should have one or more actors from these two shows.
Yeah, Amy Poehler is nominated, but I’m willing to bet that the voters thought they were voting for her for Saturday Nigh Live. –Not that she doesn’t deserve it, I just think it was a happy accident.
But without those shows, I’ll pick Modern Family to win best comedy.
KickerofKicker Uncool, @Kicker. We need a red flag here, Alan.
August 27, 2010 at 11:44AM ESTsepinwall Already taken care of. Again, folks, Rule #1 around here: Be Nice. If you can't disagree with someone without insulting them, your comment goes away.
August 27, 2010 at 12:31PM ESTPaul C
August 27, 2010 at 9:51AM EST Reply to CommentQuestion: Why was Tony Shalhoub allowed to submit both parts of the finale? From my understanding it was split into Part 1 & Part 2 and was shown in different weeks, so shouldn't he have been forced to choose between one or the other?
(Okay, I know Matthew Fox was allowed to select the extra-long "Lost" finale, and even though it is billed as 2 different episodes (at least on Wiki) there wasn't a clear part where one ended and the other began, plus they were shown on the same night)
That's even before the ludicrousness that "Monk" is in the Comedy side of the awards and that Shalhoub is nominated over somebody like Joel McHale.
Ah anyway, I agree with pretty much all your guesses particularly the Larry David & "Curb" love. I'd have a bet on Edie Falco winning.
Echos Myron
August 27, 2010 at 11:05AM EST Reply to CommentThe only show I care about at all in the comedy bracket is Curb, and it had a very uneven season (I'd say almost half the season was unremarkable). But an uneven season of Curb still towers over all these edgeless network TV comedies.
Scheer_Power
August 27, 2010 at 11:40AM EST Reply to CommentNurse Jackie is a comedy? Makes sense with those classic comedy bits about Jackie's infedelity tearing her family apart. Or her daughter ripping her hair out of her head? Comedy is defined by this show.
7s Tim
August 27, 2010 at 12:47PM EST Reply to CommentWhy is it that neither Stonestreet nor Lynch is willing to make an expression of regret? And how does this make them good actors?
JanieJones
August 27, 2010 at 5:44PM EST Reply to CommentI would love for "Curb" and David to take the wins. It was an excellent season.
I like Shaloub but Monk had completely run out of gas. I understand that the Academy has their fondness for sentimentality and (laziness on their part). I just think it's undeserving even for his performance in it's final season.
Carrell should have gotten one several seasons ago. I know if he doesn't win, they will probably acknowledge him in his final season.
I love Stonestreet as Cam. He's a riot to the nth degree on MF but I also love Ferguson as the uptight Mitchell.
If NPH wins, I would very happy too.
I think Poehler is more than deserving but I would be shocked. I'm tied between Falco and Collette. Whether people regard them as comedies is a non-issue for me. Both actresses are very strong in their roles.
wisco
August 27, 2010 at 10:12PM EST Reply to Commenti really really do not like modern family. it's not funny, and the characters are not believable which would be fine if it was funny. i find the dad of the main family unbearable to watch. i only have watched cause it's on in my house. glee on the other hand is captivating and hysterical and matthew morrison is beyond hot.
Evan If a show has a character that actually believes he can climax in a hot tub and that will get a girl in the hot tub pregnant, that show can not be called "captivating".
August 27, 2010 at 10:52PM ESTSavvy Veteran
August 28, 2010 at 5:04AM EST Reply to Comment"...Fey wisely submitted her one funny episode this season..."
I know you didn't really care for 30 ROCK this season, but that's just a silly thing to say. Out of 22 episodes of a great sitcom, you actually only found its main character funny in ONE EPISODE—because, I guess, in your opinion it was an off year?
I've noticed that I don't always see eye-to-eye with you regarding comedies, but I think you're entirely off-base in your continuing dismissal of 30 ROCK. I feel like a new reality has been manufactured in which PARKS & RECREATION is far, FAR and away the funniest show on television, 30 ROCK (or any one of a few other choice shows) is an unfunny shell of its former self, and anyone whose opinion differs is obviously an uninitiated philistine. P&R is hilarious and absolutely great, but I feel like the denigration of the shows it was snubbed in favor of has really taken over and clouded the argument—leading to some generalizations that are just flat-out not representative of the previous TV season. Trying to express how good a particular show is does not require one to diminish the quality of all other shows.
klg19
August 28, 2010 at 1:49PM EST Reply to CommentThis list is just depressing. I either don't watch, don't like, or found this season disappointing for every series listed here. While the laugh-out-loud performances and writing on shows like Community and Cougar Town are completely ignored! It's really a sin.
Alberto
August 28, 2010 at 6:00PM EST Reply to CommentModern Family, Shalhoub, Falco, Stonestreet, Lynch, that's my choice.
Here's my full list of predictionc from my blog:
http://imitationlife.wordpress.com/2010/08/28/2010-emmy-predictions/
guffus
August 29, 2010 at 5:11PM EST Reply to CommentI find it interesting that modern family is described as a traditional family sitcom when I always thought its premise was that it was a more modern non-traditional family sitcom. 2 gay guys raising an adopted aisan baby. a divorced retired father marries a hot second wife that closer to his daughter's age than his own plus he has a step-son that is the same age as his grandchildren. etc. etc. this aint exactly growing pains or family ties, ya know.
sepinwall The nature of the families on the show may not all be traditional. The nature of the writing on the show is very traditional - extremely funny and well-executed, but it would require very little change to put the same dialogue onto a stage in front of a live studio audience.
August 29, 2010 at 7:05PM EST