Reflections on predicting the 2010 Emmy winners
Which category was easiest? Which was hardest? And why bother?
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As you may have heard, the Emmy Awards will be presented on Sunday (Aug. 29) night, putting a blissful end to the last couple months of nomination previewing and prognosticating.
HitFix's Greg Ellwood does a tremendous job of handicapping the Oscar sweepstakes, but the lead-up to Oscar is weeks upon weeks of critics awards and guild awards. It's a busy season and the races are constantly evolving and, by the end, a full award-season narrative has developed and not only can you predict all the winners, but you can tell the story of how they got there.
That's not the case with Emmy season. Between the end of the TV year and the nominations in July? There's nothing. Then, between the nomination announcement in July and the actual ceremony? More nothing, unless you count the Television Critics Association Awards, which I do in principle. But it's not like we in the TCA think we have any connection to the Emmys. Quite the opposite.
So it comes time to predict winners and nothing at all has changed. The folks at The Envelope can pretend that some shows or actors have momentum, but it's the exact same momentum they had back in March.
But we try to predict anyway and often we predict upsets just so that we can say something slightly different from the folks around us. I may get lucky on a couple, but don't think I'd wager my own money on my picks.
Sepinwall already did his Drama picks and his Comedy choices will be up tomorrow morning. We'll also have an Emmy podcast that'll go up some time tomorrow, all saying the same things.
A couple quick awards of my own:
Easiest category to predict: Either Outstanding Miniseries, with its two nominees (including "The Pacific") or Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series, where it's a pretty safe bet that Jane Lynch is going to win in a walk.
Hardest category to predict: Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series is just flipping a coin. I think I can say that Archie Panjabi probably won't win, but I could make an argument of some sort in favor of anybody else. I picked Christine Baranski, but I'd be hard pressed to tell you why.
Category most likely to yield a deserving winner: Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series. Laurie? Cranston? Chandler? Hall? Hamm? Fox? OK. OK. OK. OK. OK. And OK. I figure Hall wins, but if he doesn't? That's fine, too.
Category least likely to yield a deserving winner: Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series. Julianna Margulies is good in "The Good Wife." Heck, she's very good. I'd just love to sit every Emmy voter down with the "Balm" episode of "Sons of Anarchy." Then I'd ask for a revote on the nominations in this category.
Unlikely winner who would make me happiest: Aaron Paul's in a category with three or four heavyweights who are relatively deserving in their own right. But if he won on Emmy night, that'd be pretty sweet.
Unlikely winner who would make me most unhappy: Matthew Morrison doesn't stand a chance of winning, but how he came to even be in this field is beyond me.
But anyway... once again... My Predictions for the 62nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards.
2013 | Drama | RSummary: Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill have boundless energy in the story of a real-life commodities crook who earned millions through scummy small-time stock trades.Director: Martin Scorsese
Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Margot Robbie
1997 | Crime | RSummary: Quentin Tarantino adaptats an Elmore Leonard novel into this story of a few increasingly desperate people scraping to get by.Director: Quentin Tarantino
Cast: Pam Grier, Samuel L. Jackson, Robert Forster
1995 | Mystery | NRSummary: Denzel Washington plays an out of work WWII vet who takes the wrong job and is soon neck-deep in a mess of politics, murder, and jazz in '40s Los Angeles.Director: Carl Franklin
Cast: Denzel Washington, Tom Sizemore, Jennifer Beals
2008 | Science Fiction | PGSummary: Animated series continues the story of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Anakin Skywalker as they battle the Emperor Palpatine, Count Dooku and General Grievous, but also takes time to explore other smaller characters in the Star Wars universe.Director: George Lucas (creator)
Cast: Tom Kane, Dee Bradley Baker, Matt Lanter
2013 | Comedy | NRSummary: Insanely funny comedy show created by Amy Schumer, who stars in brilliantly funny sketches about sex, city living, dating, and friendship.Director: Daniel Powell, Amy Schumer (creators)
Cast: Amy Schumer, Kevin Kane, Mike Houston
1993 | Sports | PGSummary: Emotionally powerful sports classic featuring Sean Astin as a skinny high school kid with big football dreams and the determination to make his way towards his dream team at Notre Dame.Director: David Anspaugh
Cast: Sean Astin, Jon Favreau, Ned Beatty
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