Who will have the No. 1 album over the holiday on the Billboard 200? Michael Buble or Adele?
As seems only fitting, Michael Buble217;s “Christmas” album looks like a sure shot to continue to be No. 1 over the holidays as the No. 1 stocking stuffer is projected to sell up to 450,000 to top next week’s Billboard 200.
That means that his album of seasonal standards now pushes past Lady Gaga’s “Born This Way” to be the second best-selling album of all of 2011 after Adele’s “21.” That’s some handsome feat, considering the album didn’t come out until Oct. 15 (compared with Adele’s February release and Lady Gaga’s May street date).
Speaking of “21,” it just keeps on storming ahead and will sell up to 400,000 copies this week, as everyone buys it for their moms. Young Jeezy’s “TM: 103: Hustlerz Ambition” will top 200,000 in sales, which on almost any other week would have been enough to debut at No. 1 handily, but instead, he’ll have to settle for No. 3.
There are no other debuts in the Top 10, as holiday sales of top pop names dominate. Justin Bieber’s “Under the Mistletoe” will sell up between 175,000-200,000, according to Hits Daily Double for No. 4, while Lady Antebellum’s “Own the Night” looks good for No. 5 with sales of 125,000 units. Both Drake’s “Take Care” and “Nickelback’s “Here & Now” are on target to sell between 100,000-110,000, so they are in a dead heat for No. 6 and 7.
Andrea Bocelli’s “Concerto: One Night in Central Park” could also top the 100,000 mark for No. 8. Scotty McCreery’s “Clear As Day,” Rihanna’s “Talk That Talk,” The Black Keys’ “El Camino” and “Now That’s What I Call Music 40” are all too close to call for the No. 9 and 10 spots and are all looking at moving between 90,000-95,000 units.
Hits Daily Double also reports that the small sales growth the record industry had seen this year, its first since 2004, has eroded to 1%. That means if you’re going to buy for Christmas, hurry up! The digital retailers will count any sales after Dec. 25 toward 2012, so gift card usage, etc. those first few days after Christmas won’t count for 2011.