Katy Perry in her 'Teenage Dreams' form

Credit: Capitol Records

Are Katy Perry’s strong digital download singles sales cannibalizing sales of her new album, “Teenage Dream?”

The album will come in at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 next week with estimated sales of around 200,000 copies, according to Hits Daily Double.

That figure is certainly respectable, but is certainly less than we were expecting given Perry’s bumper-to-bumper promotion of the album and the success of the first two singles, “California Gurls” and “Teenage Dream.”

Perry has appeared seemingly everywhere for months to promote the album—the cover of Rolling Stone? She’s there. “Today’s” concert series? Done it. Host the Teen Choice Awards? Check. Track after track rolled out on iTunes to tout the Aug. 24 release.

So what happened? Is it oversaturation, cannibalization or simply the new reality?  “California Gurls” is the undisputed song of the summer and it spent several weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100 to prove it.  Fans have also downloaded the song, as well as the title track, so maybe they feel no urgency to buy the album. Plus, we’ve also seen other albums, such as the Black Eyed Peas’ “The End” compete with its own digital single sales for such hits as “Boom Boom Pow”and end up just fine.  We’re not saying there’s any cause for alarm here at all, just noting the continuing trend.  

If Katy Perry is debuting at a slightly lower than expected tally with “Teenage Dream,” Fantasia is beating expectations with “Back to Me,” which will likely come in at No. 2 with sales of up to 130,000. That means Eminem’s “Recovery” slips to No. 3, its lowest point since its debut on the chart.

It’s not all about Perry and Fantasia, however, as four other acts debut in the top 10: Usher’s “Versus,” a nine-track companion to “Raymond Vs. Raymond,” and Little Big Town’s “The Reason Why”  are neck in neck for No. 4 with estimated sales of between 40,000-45,000 each. Similarly, it’s too close to call between Rock band Never Say Never and country’s Randy Rogers Band for the No. 9 spot on the chart. Both are poised to sell upwards of 27,000.

Speaking of, it’s not so long ago that sales of 25,000 would have gotten you nowhere near the top 10. How long before it only takes sales of 10,000 to enter at No. 10? We give it a year.