Let the countdown to the Grammys begin! The 52nd Grammy Awards take place Jan. 31 in Los Angeles. Seldom have the leading Grammy nominees dovetailed so perfectly with commercial popularity. The top nominees this year are Beyonce, Taylor Swift, Lady GaGa and Kanye West.

Each week day between now and Jan. 29, we’ll take a Grammy category and swirl it around, dissect it and decipher whom we believe will win. We take a look at the ladies first because we have a feeling that the night is going to be all about a showdown between Beyonce and Taylor Swift (Someone better go ahead and sedate West now).

Nominees for Best Female Pop Vocal Performance:

Adele, “Hometown Glory”
Beyonce, “Halo”
Katy Perry, “Hot N Cold”
Pink, “Sober”
Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”

Before we start, a little clarification here. A song cannot be nominated in more than one field. For example, Swift’s “You Belong With Me” cannot be nominated here and for best female country vocal performance. (That’s why her tune, “White Horse,” is slotted in that spot). The exception is that a tune can be nominated for song and/or record of the year in the general categories and still be eligible in a genre field. Are you confused yet? Welcome to the Grammys.

Guess who’s missing in this category? Lady GaGa. “Poker Face” is up for best dance recording, so it couldn’t get a nod, but why not “Love Game” or “Paparazzi?” As far as who is actually nominated, Adele is handsdown the best vocalist in this category, but “Hometown Glory” is from “19,” and that project got its due last year. The Grammy voters didn’t see fit to even give Perry a best new artist nod last year, so they aren’t going to go for her here. This is a race between Beyonce and Swift. Swift is not a particularly strong singer, but that doesn’t seem to matter anymore. “Halo” is nice, but doesn’t feel like a particularly inspired performance by Beyonce.

Predicted Winner: Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me."