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2012 Grammy Awards Predictions: Does Adele sweep the nominations?

Also look for Lady Gaga, Kanye West, Taylor Swift and Tony Bennett to land nods

2012 Grammy Awards Predictions: Does Adele sweep the nominations?
Credit: AP Photo/Matt Sayles

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The Grammy nominations will be announced on Wednesday, Nov. 30, during the Grammy Nominations Concert Live special, airing at 10 p.m. ET.

The hour-long program will shoe-horn a few nomination announcements with a jam-packed evening of performances. Among those slated to play are Lady Gaga, Jason Aldean, Rihanna, Ludacris, Sugarland, the Band Perry and Lupe Fiasco. Among the presenters will be Nicki Minaj and Katy Perry.

Hitfix will offer full coverage of the evening, including an analysis of the nominations, a backstage glimpse at what you don’t see on TV, a full list of nominees, and much more. In the meantime, here are my predictions on who’s likely to hear their names announced in one of the big four categories on Wednesday night.

 

The 54th annual Grammy Awards will be presented Feb. 12 from Staples Center, Los Angeles. The ceremony will air on CBS. The eligibility period is Oct. 1, 2010-Sept. 30, 2011.   Here are some thoughts on some key categories.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Sure Bets
The Band Perry
The Civil Wars
Foster the People
Nicki Minaj

Possibilities
Bon Iver
Hot Chelle Rae

Long shots
LMFAO
Scotty McCreery

Lowdown: It was a strong year for new artists. Although Nicki Minaj had great success in 2010, she didn’t release “Pink Friday” until the current eligibility period, so look for her to triumph here when it comes to a nomination.  There’s no Esperanza Spalding-equivalent here, but some artist may come out of the blue.  Bon Iver, The Band Perry and The Civil Wars have been commercial and critical faves.  Despite LMFAO’s success, like Ke$ha last year, they are likely seen as too cartoonish to warrant a nomination.

RECORD OF THE YEAR

 Sure Bets
“Rolling in the Deep,” Adele
“Firework,”  Katy Perry
“Grenade,” Bruno Mars

Possibilities

“Pumped Up Kicks,” Foster the People
“Moves Like Jagger,” Maroon 5 featuring Christina Aguilera
“All of the Lights,” Kanye West
“You and I,” Lady Gaga

Long shots

“Super Bass,” Nicki Minaj
“Walk,” Foo Fighters
“Body and Soul,” Tony Bennett featuring Amy Winehouse

Lowdown: This award goes to the artist and producer. “Rolling in the Deep” is going to be hard to beat: it was the biggest cross-over hit in 25 years. You may be wondering where obvious contender “If I Die Young” is : it was nominated for best country song last year, so is not eligible this year.  Lady Gaga could have placed a number of songs into contention here, but I’m going with “You and I,”  which is a meatier song that “Born This Way.” Though we put it as a long shot, don’t be surprised if the Grammy voters decide to figure out a way to honor Winehouse, whose “Back To Black” swept to Grammys, by nominating “Body and Soul.”

SONG OF THE YEAR

 Sure Bets
“Rolling in the Deep,” Adele and Paul Epworth
“Grenade,” Bruno Mars, Philip Lawrence, Ari Levine, Brody Brown, Claude Kelly, Andrew Wyatt
“Firework,” Katy Perry, Mikkel S. Eriksen, Tor Erik Hermansen, Sandy Wilhelm, Ester Dean

Possibilities

“You and I,” Lady Gaga
“Pumped Up Kicks,” Mark Foster (recorded by Foster The People)
“Back To December,” Taylor Swift and Nathan Chapman

Long shots
“The Cave,” Marcus Mumford (Mumford & Sons)
“Paradise,” Will Champion, Chris Martin, Jonny Buckland, Brian Eno, Guy Berryman (Coldplay)
“I Was Here,”  Diane Warren (Beyonce)

Lowdown: This award goes to the songwriter. There was a time when Grammy voters really made a distinction between song and record of the year, but lately there has been a lot of overlap in the nominations, and the winners have been the same four times in the last 10 years. Look for it to happen again when Adele's "Rolling in the Deep" snares song and record.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Sure Bets
“21,” Adele
“My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy,”  Kanye West
“Speak Now,” Taylor Swift

Possibilities
“Duets ll,” Tony Bennett
“So Beautiful or So What,” Paul Simon
“Born This Way,” “Lady Gaga
“4,” Beyonce

Long shots

“Bon Iver,” Bon Iver
“Wasting Light,” Foo Fighters
“My Kinda Party,” Jason Aldean

Lowdown:
We did a longer piece on album possibilities
here. To summarize, the award is Adele’s to lose, but she has some tough competition from past winners Swift and Bennett, who will likely edge out Simon for the “veteran” spot.  Arcade Fire’s win this February was a shock and a bid to show that the Grammys can be hip,  so that slot this year could go to Bon Iver, if the voters are really feeling adventurous, or the Foo Fighters if they want to show they rock.

Who do you think is going to be nominated this year?  Who do you think will be snubbed? Share your thoughts below.

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  • Default-avatar

    briguyx

    Wonder if Adele could get nominated for "Someone Like You" as well. That's a pretty strong song!

    November 28, 2011 at 4:52AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      melinda She could, but generally, a label doesn't want an artist competing against him/herself and splitting votes, so Columbia probably only put "Rolling In the Deep" forward for best song/record.

      November 28, 2011 at 4:20PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Tracy If so, they should have submitted "Someone like you" for song of the year - I think that was better song writing.

      November 28, 2011 at 9:50PM EST
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    EvenStephen33

    I'm confused why Bon Iver would be considered a new artist. His album "For Emma, Forever Ago" came out in 2008, didn't it?

    November 28, 2011 at 11:42AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      melinda Yes, but the rules are that an artist may have released no more than three albums and that this is the album that brought the act to prominence. You could definitely argue that "For Emma" did that for Bon Iver, but since this album debuted at No. 2, you could also argue that this album did that. It's deliberately vague.

      November 28, 2011 at 4:24PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      EvenStephen33 Ah gotcha, thanks! Silly Grammy rules

      November 28, 2011 at 4:38PM EST
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    JJ

    “Rolling in the Deep,” Adele and Paul Epworth was not submitted in the "Record of the Year" category, instead only in the "Song of the Year" slot. A sly move on Adele's part.

    November 28, 2011 at 5:07PM EST Reply to Comment
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      Tracy I don't get it. Why would that be a sly move? Shouldn't she want to be nominated for record of the year?

      November 28, 2011 at 9:53PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      melinda JJ: I didn't see a final ballot, but if they did that, I'm not sure why they would. A song can compete for both song and record of the year (and often win both, as Lady A did last year).

      November 28, 2011 at 9:57PM EST
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    barkergk

    You are leaving out 26 time Grammy winner Alison Krauss?.......REALLY?
    The only reason she didn't win last year is because she didn't have a new album.
    This year she does, "Paper Airplane".

    Do I hear 30 Grammy's for Alison?

    November 28, 2011 at 8:01PM EST Reply to Comment
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      melinda She's remarkable. I don't think this will get an album of the year nod, though (the two times she's won that award before--or been nominated-- was for collaborations, not with Union Station). It will probably get a country album of the year nod, however, or in the Americana Roots field.

      November 28, 2011 at 10:03PM EST
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    Robert in Oregon

    11-year-old crossover artist Jackie Evancho should be nominated for best new artist. Her voice and talent is extraordinary, and her "Dream With Me" CD-Album sold several hundred thousand copies.

    November 29, 2011 at 3:08AM EST Reply to Comment
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      Jim in CT I strongly agree!! She's already gone platinum ("Oh Holy Night"), has reached gold (500K) and still counting with "Dream With Me," and is selling out places like Lincoln Center in NYC and Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. And David Foster is her producer.

      November 29, 2011 at 12:23PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      melinda She's a dark horse, but she could surprise us with a best new artist nod and there's usually a left-field candidate, whether it was Esperanza Spalding last year or someone like Ledesi a few years ago...

      November 30, 2011 at 2:29AM EST
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      J jones Jackie was snub by Grammys, And a lot of people was expecting Jackie to be nominated. I most like will not even watch the grammys this year because of Jackie being snubbed and quite a few other artist that wasn't even concidered. Most not all but most of the nomination should never have been picked

      January 15, 2012 at 11:10PM EST
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    Fan

    The best song of the year: "Somebody that I used to know" by GOTYE and KIMBRA.
    There isn't better song in this year. Why none is not considering this song?!?!

    Beacause of Gotye comes form Australia? So what?
    Song is first!!! Just listen to this record.

    November 29, 2011 at 11:22AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Fan

    Write a comment...The best song of the year: "Somebody that I used to know" by GOTYE and KIMBRA.
    There isn't better song in this year. Why none is not considering this song?!?!

    Beacause of Gotye comes form Australia? So what?
    Song is first!!! Just listen to this record.

    November 29, 2011 at 11:22AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Wytfan

    The best song of the year: "Somebody that I used to know" by GOTYE and KIMBRA.
    There isn't better song in this year. Why none is not considering this song?!?!

    Beacause of Gotye comes form Australia? So what?
    Song is first!!! Just listen to this record.

    November 29, 2011 at 11:23AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Jeremy Baril

    Childish Gambino for best new artist?

    November 30, 2011 at 1:57AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      melinda The album came out too late for consideration this year

      November 30, 2011 at 2:28AM EST
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    Dave Whitaker

    Here's my Grammy pics: http://davesmusicdatabase.blogspot.com/2011/11/predictions-for-2012-grammy-nominations.html

    November 30, 2011 at 3:24AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Dave Whitaker

    Here's my Grammy pics: http://davesmusicdatabase.blogspot.com/2011/11/predictions-for-2012-grammy-nominations.html

    November 30, 2011 at 3:25AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Denvil

    What about Elton John and Leon Russell The Union. A very great album. Perhaps one of the best from Elton John, and he has lots of great albums.

    November 30, 2011 at 7:50PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      melinda Wonderful album and EJ/LR may see some love in some other categories (although the dropping from 109 to 78 categories makes it rougher for everyone), but it's highly unlikely for a best album nod.

      November 30, 2011 at 8:22PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Dave Whitaker

    Here's how I fared in my picks for the big four awards: http://davesmusicdatabase.blogspot.com/2011/12/2012-grammy-nominations.html

    December 1, 2011 at 3:29AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      Charlieism Adele rocks!!!!Check out my predictions here. http://charlieism.blogspot.com/2011/12/grammys-2012-charlies-predictions.html

      December 16, 2011 at 2:30AM EST
  • Default-avatar

    charlieism

    Very well done- I enjoyed reading your article. And most of your picks made it to the nomination list! Please check out mine. http://charlieism.blogspot.com/2011/12/grammys-2012-charlies-predictions.html

    December 16, 2011 at 2:33AM EST Reply to Comment
Melinda Newman

About This Blog

Melinda Newman is the former West Coast Bureau Chief for Billboard Magazine with more than 15 years of experience in the music industry. She covers music and entertainment for the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, Associated Press, MSN, AOL and other outlets. Recent interviews include Taylor Swift, Pink, Brad Paisley, Foo Fighters, Jonas Bros. and Snow Patrol.

 

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