UPDATE: Fox responds officially after 'Wolverine' workprint leaks online
What does the biggest pirate break in recent memory mean to the industry?
Wanna guess what Wolverine's going to do to the guys who leaked his new film online?
UPDATE:
The following statement was sent to us by 20th Century Fox in response to yesterday's story:
"Last night, a stolen, incomplete and early version of X-Men Origins: Wolverine was posted illegally on a website. It was without many effects, had missing and unedited scenes and temporary sound and music. We immediately contacted the appropriate legal authorities and had it removed. We forensically mark our content so we can identify sources that make it available or download it. The source of the initial leak and any subsequent postings will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law – the courts have handed down significant criminal sentences for such acts in the past. The FBI and the MPAA also are actively investigating this crime. We are encouraged by the support of fansites condemning this illegal posting and pointing out that such theft undermines the enormous efforts of the filmmakers and actors, and above all, hurts the fans of the film."
We appreciate their comment on the situation, and you can read the original story below.
* * *
Right now, everything you read about the financial situation in Hollywood is doom and gloom. Studios are laying staff off. Production companies are losing long-standing development deals. Hedge funds are running for the hills. DVDs are dying. No one wants BluRay. If you were to believe every negative thing written, the industry is seemingly days away from shutting down altogether.
Of course, that's not really the case. But it's certainly what you'd think if you only listened to the worst of what's being reported. One of the questions being asked over and over is "What is the real financial impact of piracy?" And since piracy means different things on different films, that's a hard question to answer.
20th Century Fox is about to have an interesting practical test on one of their biggest summer films. "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" leaked online today in what appears to be a near-finished DVD quality rip, marred only by a few unfinished FX shots. As soon as files go up, they're coming right back down as Fox legal chases pirates around the web, but that toothpaste is out of the tube, gentlemen. And that sucks.
[more after the jump]
If there's any big-budget movie that's been a whipping boy so far this year, it's "Wolverine." There have been reports, both published and also off-the-record, about problems almost since the start of production. I really like director Gavin Hood and his earlier film "Tsotsi," so I've been waiting, fingers crossed, hoping the bad buzz is just bad buzz, ignoring as much of it as possible. For the film to be so close to release and then get kneecapped by a leak like this is insane. It had to be someone inside the production. I looked at a random three minute segment from the middle of the film this afternoon when first told it was online, and there's no timecode, no watermark... nothing. It's a clean, perfect copy. Someone did that on purpose.
So the question is this... will it hurt the film? I imagine the file will be traded endlessly between now and opening weekend, and no doubt you'll start seeing reader reviews pop up at geek sites from people who "just happened to see the film." And unless word of mouth is orgasmic, I'm guessing this takes a big bite out of that opening weekend. The exact demographic who would open this movie is savvy enough to have the film on their hard-drives right now if they want it. And if they hate what they see, I can't imagine they're going to pay to see it again when it opens.
I hate seeing this happen to anyone, and I take no joy seeing it happen to 20th Century Fox. I think it's bad for the business overall. I think it's obviously a personally-motivated leak, and Fox will no doubt come down like the wrath of Galactus on whoever did it. But in the meantime, I put the question to you guys... what happens to "Wolverine"? Will piracy be the one thing his healing factor can't handle?
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Next 36 Commentswashington
April 1, 2009 at 12:16AM EST Reply to CommentDefinitely going to hurt a little. Especially from the curious fanboys that are disgusted with Fox. How much is going to be hard to tell, because even without the leak I was going to predict that this movie would pull in less than all 3 X-Men movies. We may even see Watchmen-like numbers on this now.
Centipede Damascus
April 1, 2009 at 1:03AM EST Reply to CommentI am also really hoping this movie is as fun as Hugh Jackman's been hyping it up to be, and hopefully this leak will actually spread some good word of mouth (if it's any good).
Taino71
April 1, 2009 at 1:32AM EST Reply to CommentCould this be a April fools joke?
iwasakabukiman
April 1, 2009 at 2:01AM EST Reply to CommentThis movie's target demographic are the people who are going to download this film like mad. Someone's head is going to roll.
MAL
April 1, 2009 at 2:44AM EST Reply to CommentI heard this is a virus...I mean, April Fool's and all. Smells of poo. What better way to spread one then to get a bunch of geeked out fanboys all kookoo off the promise of seeing Wolverine 1 month early.
That Werewolf Guy
April 1, 2009 at 3:25AM EST Reply to CommentWhile I don't want to encourage or glorify piracy, I doubt that it will seriously hurt anybody (except the guy who put it online, if they find him.). There is no proof that any illegal download ever did! I mean, every year they tell us about the damage and financial loss that these things cause, just to tell us afterwards that ANOTHER Box Office Record has been broken! How much made "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" again? Or TDK?! And you can't tell me that there weren't thousands or even millions people who thought "Why should I pay money for that if I can get a crappy copy of it via BitTorrent?" (And later a better rip when the DVD comes out)
Again, I'm not trying to glorify piracy. I haven't downloaded anything for years and won't start it again, just because "Wolverine" popped online, but I seriously believe that it's not the big, bad Torrent that hurts the Box Office. What it is? I don't know (My bet goes on the whole theatrical experience these days, with cell phones and talking teenies and shit like that), but I know that the movies with the most downloads are also the ones that make the most money at the B.O. - doesn't matter how far in advance they are available.
TallBoy66
April 1, 2009 at 4:19AM EST Reply to CommentY'know, if this was an in-depth character study of two people sitting in a blank room, it'd be more tempting to download. But a huge part of the X-movies are that it's FX porn, and if half the FX aren't finished, then I don't see the point of watching it. I wanna see the SNKIT, not see Jackman waving his hands around with blue-screen gloves on or whatever
bb6640
April 1, 2009 at 4:33AM EST Reply to CommentYes, it will hurt the box office. By how much is the 60 million dollar opening weekend question. I don't think it will hurt the box office severely - although it depends on your definition of severe. What I mean by that is that I think it will do over 100 mil. domestic. It's a tentpole and there plenty of people, plenty of X-Men fans, who don't know or care about the leaked workprint. And there are a sizable amount of people out there who want to see it in the theaters rather than watch a incomplete workprint. People downloading the movie are doing so illegally, they know it. And there are many people out there who do play by the rules. That said, I think it will knock off maybe 10-15 million or more from the openning gross. (And of course media cites reporting the story aren't really helping letting people know there is a print out there and that it is downloadable... but that is probably unavoidable). Make no mistake, heads will roll at Fox this week. And it is a shame that there are many people out there in geekdom who have a hate-on for Fox (myself included) who will see this as some divine justice for putting crap out like Streetfighter or whatever. But no studio deserves this. Forget the studio even: I am thinking of Gavin Hood, Hugh Jackman, and the many people who put there time, money, and hard work into this, and to have it basically leaked, unfinished, well, that is just crap. When something like this happens on such a large scale everyone looses.
Shenanigans
April 1, 2009 at 4:49AM EST Reply to CommentShenanigans
April 1, 2009 at 4:58AM EST Reply to CommentI tried one of those links and froze up my computer. I'd rather wait anyways it's only a month away. I mean sayin "Hey, I just saw a 53min unfunished rough version of Wolverine" is netheir good pick-up line nor a casual conversation starter for that matter. I'm just sayin..
king coma
April 1, 2009 at 7:32AM EST Reply to CommentThis could also be pretty good move by Fox, depending on their objective. Sure, if the movie sucks the leak will hurt the Box Office, but on the other hand, the second successive disappointment in a franchise would likely perform badly either way. This way they can use this as a prime example of how piracy really hurt a bona-fide cash-cow franchise. That will surely give them the opportunity to sue some more fans and cry for some more laws, which seems to be what being a production company is all about these days. On the other hand, if the movie is decent, the leak will boost the box office, making everybody happy.
WarrenMoney
April 1, 2009 at 9:10AM EST Reply to CommentHey guys, I hate to tell you this but as a Manager of a Cinema, I can tell you first hand that piracy has directly affected admissions. Not even yesterday I heard a person in line say, (and not in a too quiet voice -douche), that they'll download Paul Blart rather than pay the $10 AUS (about $6.90US) ticket admission price. I understand that the GEC has affected everyone, but to use it as to justify downloading or complaining that a film is 'not worthy' of seeing at the cinema is just an excuse.
If piracy and the global downturn get any worse, then expect less product, more dross (like Paul Blart..wtf $137mil US are you guys retarded or something?)
JoeK
April 1, 2009 at 9:35AM EST Reply to CommentNot really sure how to feel about how many more people know about the leak because of the widespread reporting of it. Countless more people know about the online availability than otherwise would outside of the normal pirate circles. Like it or not people are trading on the situation in this fashion as well.
As for the doom and gloom for the industry it really is getting sickening. The studios are making excellent money like they almost always do. The problem is that they are owned by conglomerates made up of other divisions that are in tailspins. It's a shell game and people are losing their jobs in this business the same way as in others.
The installed base of very nice home entertainment equipment keeps growing - so many people have and want flat panels/HDTV that BluRay should be a slam dunk but they are still holding prices far too high for any traction on adoption. There is no reason that people buying an HDTV shouldn't have an EASY decision to make in upgrading their DVD player to BluRay too. It still plays the standard discs and the BluRay discs look better than most cinemas. Get the price points, promotion and line on consumer education pinned down. If they louse up BluRay it will be a tragedy for movie lovers.
Get the price on the software and the players down and make it EASY to sell them and buy them with HDTV's.
chutneylix
April 1, 2009 at 12:10PM EST Reply to CommentI'd only feel sorry for Jackman's and the director's sakes. Jackman seems like a decent guy and most of us want to see the guy who made Tsotsi succeed yeah? Or maybe since the word of mouth has already been negative during the making of this movie, this will actually help the guy? Bad box office can be blamed on this leak now rather than the quality of the film.
lazygarfield
April 1, 2009 at 12:37PM EST Reply to CommentThis sucks. Not only is it bad for all the people involved with the film.... but it is also damaging to US, the people who wanna avoid spoilers at any cost, and wanna enjoy the movie in its complete form only. Damn.
billyclub
April 1, 2009 at 1:06PM EST Reply to CommentPcenginefx
April 1, 2009 at 1:16PM EST Reply to CommentI wasn't too crazy on Wolverine anyway but very surprising to see this happen so early. If anything good comes out of this is that this could give Star Trek an even better opening weekend!
billyclub
April 1, 2009 at 1:39PM EST Reply to CommentDrew should come out and say what every film writer wants to say but can't because they work in the industry and it's their bread and butter: the movie industry cannot fight the future. You can't fight piracy, piracy is simply the blackmarket word and method for a new channel of information that has been embraced by the world at large but not by the corporate world which is too slow, lazy, bloated, and confident to admit to and quickly adapt to technological change.
Everyone with an IQ above 100 saw this coming: leaks of major films. Instead of deciding that all films should be available day and date with theatrical release online (the only solution), the movie industry has the oversight and idiocy to think it can dictate bit torrents, the internet, and the evolution of people and information in general. The music industry had this option and this excuse. It failed miserably.
But instead of doing the only thing that can save the medium and secure the careers of all of the hardworking creative people working in it for a generation, Hollywood decides that 3-D is the future. 3-D is not only a gimmick, it will be remembered as a hail mary that is the equivalent to glitzy, impressive sandbags during a Hurricane Katrina-like business disaster. Not only that, but Hollywood is forcing its consumer to decide to spend more money for an experience most do not want and are being forced to adopt (no, not BluRay which was also an idiot move), or make their voices heard by downloading the latest films in regular presentation and watching them at home as millions do every day, including those in the industry. This was the first Academy Awards where the average viewer could download every art house release on the torrents and watch them at home because many of the films were not and would not play near them. The kid who does this is not a criminal he is the next Wes Anderson. Torrents will make the art stronger because more people, especially the disadvantaged, will view more films and become more literate in the art. But we're not talking about the art, we're talking about dollars.
It is absurd for Hollywood to think that it can burn a major motion picture to hundreds of DVDs like with Wolverine, circulate them in the town a month ahead of tome, and it will not turn up online. It's like a star making a homemade xxx tape. The leak will take a bite out of the box office, unless the film is really great, which it is not. And Hollywood can waste its time consulting Washington D.C. and cracking down on The Pirate Bay which is begging for it. Unlike with terrorism, there is a clear albeit time consuming solution: get it together, stream films online day and date. Or die. Stopping the flow of information is no longer viable. Toothpaste out of a tube and our smiles are guilty of nothing except being human. Putting on a pair of 3-D denial shades will not make Hollywood's future any brighter.
D.Vader
April 1, 2009 at 1:54PM EST Reply to CommentIf this is an April Fool's Day joke, it stretches across multiple websites with a cooperation between journalists the likes of which I've never seen.
Personally, I think this is a horrible thing to happen, and I hope most self-respecting geeks will refrain from downloading it.
D.Vader
April 1, 2009 at 1:55PM EST Reply to CommentIf this is an April Fool's Day joke, it stretches across multiple websites with a cooperation between journalists the likes of which I've never seen.
Personally, I think this is a horrible thing to happen, and I hope most self-respecting geeks will refrain from downloading it.
russbarnes
April 1, 2009 at 1:59PM EST Reply to CommentIf this isn't some April Fool's joke, then it's a wake up call for Hollywood. If it is an April Fool's joke, then it's a learning moment. Whichever, Hollywood needs to find the price for their wares that the market will bear that negates the need for piracy.
JoeK
April 1, 2009 at 2:00PM EST Reply to CommentI agree that the technology is moving faster than can seemingly be adapted to but internet movie watching (while growing and most likely a big part of the future) is still only a smallish part of the pie. Torrents don't mean much to unsophisticated computer users. Most people over 40 can barely keep their printers working properly. Current internet standards are mostly archaic from a quality standpoint as well. Until it works nearly as easily as simply selecting a channel on your TV it's going to be a very demographically specific way to watch movies. I also think the argument that "torrents enable independent artists and their followers/students" is a completely specious argument. It would hold water if it wasn't always the latest fx-driven tentpoles among the most downloaded/pirated movies. The rigamarole it takes to have any internet fed movie watching approximate something like BluRay is an issue for anyone that cares about quality too. The pirates driving this train mostly don't care about studios embracing any new delivery system, they simply want to and are enjoying exercising their self granted and anonymously protected power to take what they want without consequence. There will never be a shortage of such people in the world. There is a lot of work to do but chasing these folks need not be a point to focus effort on.
billyclub
April 1, 2009 at 4:19PM EST Reply to CommentReply JoeK: The "unsophisticated computer user" no longer exists in the marketplace and the "over 40 luddite" excuse is not worth its weight. See the newspaper industry's downfall by putting so much faith in and grossly underestimating an older base of consumers. It's a new day. As for quality, let's not nitpick. The work print of Wolverine looks spiffy, and everything from Slumdog Millionaire to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button could be downloaded at DVD quality in under two hours near release. The technology is great if not without kinks. More and more people are streaming downloaded content to their televisions, this is the way people want to watch films. Netflix Live is a great example of moving fast, perfecting the presentation, and pleasing everyone. The industry should not try to fight it. It's absurd to hold onto arguments like "the picture isn't as clear as we'd like" and "no one wants to watch a summer tentpole on a television" when reality is tugging otherwise. Moreover, the audience for Wolverine is completely Internet-savvy and they are growing up in an age of choice. It's not a matter of if more and more theatrical films will leak, it's a matter of when. And Hollywood has a lot of pull being that it's a multi-billion dollar industry, but it's a waste of resources and time to set the world ablaze due to Wolverine. All offense and way less defense or end up like the music industry. It's sad that Wolverine had to leak to quicken this process but it almost needed to happen. It's what no one will admit to.
crazymccrazypants
April 1, 2009 at 4:28PM EST Reply to CommentI watched it, I'll admit it. Honestly I'm still gonna go see it opening day. It was good enough that I can only hope a completed version will be a lot better. I don't think this is going to be the Death Keel for it's opening box office. Honestly with all the bad hype leading up to today, a poor opening almost seemed like a forgone conclusion. I will say that if the opening weekend sucks Fox is gonna scream bloody murder that it was all the pirates fault.
JoeK
April 1, 2009 at 4:56PM EST Reply to CommentI'm not fighting the notion that this is where things are headed but the people engaged in downloading torrents don't represent some kind of critical mass yet.
Netflix is successful and loved because it is very nearly comprehensive and is very very easy to use. I'm glad that their streaming model is working and apparently growing and it should definitely be something that the studios should embrace and not fight but it's a bit unfair to dismiss movie fans that don't hook up computers, XBOX's, etc. to their televisions. Though I said as much I didn't really state it as such to disparage such people. This really isn't about people wanting to get their hands on this movie or others in the way they prefer (streams, torrents, rentals) though is it? This is pretty clearly a malicious act and the fact that so many of the pro-internet arguments are propped up by people of ill intent really makes some of the resistance easy to understand. I think the studios could come up with a day and date internet release model and still see the same problems. Some people, if empowered an anonymous, will always help themselves and try to cloak it in some kind of forward thinking nobility. One hopes their livelihoods are never treated with such contempt.
maceodkat
April 1, 2009 at 5:17PM EST Reply to Commenti'm gonnna have to disagree on this one. the title workprint, really helps put expectations in check. and if Taken can grab over 100 million after being leaked online here 6 months or more before it hit our shores is proof positive that the move going audience will turn out to GOOD films. with so much buzz on wolverine being bad, i dont know why fox would be hurt by a partial completed version of thier movie being seen. just look at it as the worlds largest test screening. what they should've done was leak it earlier so they can see the response and fix what flaws where in the film. i really liked it (jk, i didnt download it, dont sue me FOX) and was very impressed with how they worked wolverine through the annals of his mysterious past. shame remmy didn't speak any french (or did he? idk i didnt see it) or what they did to deadpool (or didnt do, i'm not sure, like i said, pirate = bad mmmkay). over all, i'll be there at a midnight show to see it with the whole family. all four of us, and maybe grandma too. Fox should untwist the panties and exhale, this looks great, with the extra minutes being included it should be the biggest movie this May. nuff said
maceodkat
April 1, 2009 at 5:26PM EST Reply to Comment/// WarrenMoney /// why the copy/pasta from aintitcool? you suck.
Theater Hater
April 1, 2009 at 10:47PM EST Reply to CommentJust wanna say that at this moment?? Hollywood's the only place NOT in a recession! I can't take my wife and kids 2 movies. 2 Expensive! I'm pretty sure the source of da leak made money! I DL! Lots of ppl do for different reasons. I know Policemen, Lawyers, Teachers, ETC. Who go online and DL. This is da cyberage and unless they devise a way to lock down the internet, it's going 2 happen. Piracy?? LMAO!! Hollywood's the BIGGEST pirates there are! Copying movies from other countries and deoing them over. Stealing our money at the Box Office with movies that are 1hr. 15 mins long. Long Live the internet. So I guess I'm Johnny Depp and this is MY Caribbean.
bud032
April 1, 2009 at 11:15PM EST Reply to CommentI have to agree with most of the recent comments.If the studios would stop churning out such crap,downloads would not hurt them.I DID download the new X-MEN movie and watched it (sue me Fox and all the other millions of people on the web).The version I watched was 95% complete and i have no reason to think it will be any better on opening day.I am glad i did so I don't have to waste $12 to see it!I also saw Taken and Watchmen online and was happy to pay to see them on the bigsrceen again
bud032
April 1, 2009 at 11:50PM EST Reply to CommentI have just read most of the other comments and enjoyed them.Alot of people enjoy Hugh Jackman (myself included) and worry that this will hurt him.Why would this hurt him,I'm sure he got a fat paycheck and if he wants to make $ on the backend he will on the movie's merits.If the movie sucks it sucks, (I thought it sucked)and people watching it prerelease are not going to change that.as far as being an april fools joke,i'm sure Fox would like it to be.The movie is out there,not in some rough,hard to watch,subtitled version.It's a DVD quality,95% finished copy.To me, it comes down to this.there is nothing like watching a GOOD movie on the big screen.If i can preview a movie online before i plunk down the $$ to see it at the theater,good for me,especially in these economic times.Fuck Hollywood.Its a big corporate, bloated mess,akin to recent Wall Street fiasco.A bunch of out of touch with reality,obscenely paid,greedy pigs(including the actors)(from a GOOD movie)I'm as mad as hell and i'm not going to take anymore
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