Taking questions for 2/3 Oscar Talk
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Alright, you know the drill. It's been a week and a half since last Anne and I spoke, so it's time to dive back into the post-nominations discussion. Rifle off your need-to-knows and we'll try to address a few in this week's podcast.
Kristopher Tapley has covered the film awards landscape for over a decade. He founded In Contention in 2005. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Times of London and Variety. He begs you not to take any of this too seriously.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
UPDATED: FEB 25, 2013
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupSAG Actor
February 2, 2012 at 4:14PM EST Reply to CommentWhich movie do you think was the #10 on the Oscar voting for Best Picture? Bridesmaids? Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?
HoustonRufus Good question.
February 3, 2012 at 12:17AM ESTAndrej
February 2, 2012 at 4:22PM EST Reply to CommentHow much do you think things will change with the recently announced electronic voting system for next year?
Could these Oscars portray a younger voting party as many of the older Academy members might not be inclined to deal with technology to be part of the voting process? (Not to say that The Dark Knight Rises is now the frontrunner or anything because of this, but you get the point).
February 2, 2012 at 4:23PM EST Reply to CommentClooney or Dujardin?
wisconsinkel
February 2, 2012 at 4:26PM EST Reply to CommentIs Ryan Gosling destined to be a one-nominee wonder?
Prettok Is Gary Oldman destined to be a one-nomination wonder?
February 2, 2012 at 5:57PM ESTwisconsinkel Prettok, that's kind of unfair...Ryan Gosling was nominated rather early in his career and has since failed to return despite some major precursors since. Oldman earned this nomination 30 years into his career. His hey day is already over, but he may turn in one more Oscar worthy performance later on...
February 2, 2012 at 8:14PM ESTDylanS Gosling's far too young to even consider for a question like that. Oldman, despite his name, isn't so old as to rule out the possibility of a second nomination. In fact, I think he'll be back next year.
February 2, 2012 at 11:30PM ESTHoustonRufus I agree with Dylans. AS much as I love Gosling and want more nominations for him, in the big scheme of things, he's still young for serious male actors. His first nomination came when he was pretty young. Most male actors don't hit their stride until late thirties and forties, as far as awards recognition and all. If he keeps acting, he'll be in the game again.
February 3, 2012 at 12:21AM ESTGuy Lodge Though Gosling has obviously been doing great work for a few years now, last year effectively marked his arrival as a full-blown star. Things are really only getting started for him.
February 3, 2012 at 6:56AM ESTeurocheese
February 2, 2012 at 4:28PM EST Reply to CommentMidnight in Paris seems like a solid bet for Original Screenplay, though The Artist is likely to take more awards than it misses. With these two as the most likely candidates, any chance an unlikely candidate slips in? All of the other three films have strong pockets of support, and I feel like love for A Separation is on the rise. Plus, there will be plenty who respect Wiig/Mumalo for their film and Chandor (sp?) for his story.
ignoramous
February 2, 2012 at 4:28PM EST Reply to CommentTom O'Neill has this "slap the stud" theory that seems to want to prevent Brad Pitt from winning. But what about Dujardin? The only thing going for him in that performance is that his charm adds to his stud factor. George Valentin was not much of a real (dense) performance if you ask me.
Tinker Tailor Soldier Oscar-prognosticator
February 2, 2012 at 4:31PM EST Reply to CommentWhat are your thoughts on The Artist Oscar wins? It could go one of two ways as far as I can tell: The King's Speech (actor, director, screenplay, picture) or something like Gladiator...winning actor, picture and a few technical trophies
John G.
February 2, 2012 at 4:37PM EST Reply to CommentWhich category this year is the thinnest/most disappointing?
DylanS I'd personally like to suggest Best Actress.
February 3, 2012 at 2:19AM ESTPaul Outlaw
February 2, 2012 at 4:44PM EST Reply to CommentThree-part question: How does the fiercely competitive Weinstein Company decide which of their Best Actress nominees to back "for real"; how do they explain that to the one who is second choice; and are they doomed to split the votes they campaign for either way?
MJS
February 2, 2012 at 4:55PM EST Reply to CommentAnonymous or Jane Eyre for best Costume design?
ignoramous We all know what Anne Thompson will say....and in this case, she'll be absolutely right. However, I have a feeling that many people may predict Hugo...it is Sandy Powell, after all.
February 2, 2012 at 4:57PM ESTSan FranCinema
February 2, 2012 at 4:57PM EST Reply to CommentHow much do festival events like Palm Springs and Santa Barbara influence who wins the Oscar? Are Academy voters showing up to a Viola Davis tribute or Scorcese tribute (and thus being influenced by the conversation/biography/facts)?
Kris, I loved your live-tweeing of the Scorcese tribute but I have to ask: did the people sitting next to you get really made that you were texting? ;)
Kristopher Tapley The lights are up somewhat and people have their phones out to take pictures and whatnot, so it's never really an issue. I always turn it off when a clip runs. That said, I tend to sit in the back next to the guys with the sound equipment and monitors and whatnot, so I'm out of the way.
February 2, 2012 at 6:08PM EST4N
February 2, 2012 at 5:03PM EST Reply to CommentWhich of the foreign language nominees has Anne seen (or you, but I know FL is Guy's thing, not yours, Kris)? Are there any that she thinks could upset A Separation?
I've seen In Darkness and while I know FL voters regularly go for plain films, I just don't see how anybody could be in love with it enough to win the Oscar. It's unoriginal, but also long and much less stylish than you'd think for a film set mostly underground.
Bill_the_Bear Good question!
February 2, 2012 at 5:13PM ESTI'd also add that, several times recently, some little-known FL film came up from virtually out of nowhere to take the Oscar, e.g. "Departures" and "The Secret in Their Eyes." Is there any chance of that happening this year? Related...is there a chance that conservative American AMPAS voters might not want to vote for an Iranian film, no matter how good it might be?
Rashad
February 2, 2012 at 5:40PM EST Reply to CommentHow FANTASTIC was THE GREY!?!?
Kristopher Tapley Word.
February 2, 2012 at 6:09PM ESTKel Doucette Better than 1/2 the best picture nominees...by far! And surprising that the duo (Neeson/Carnahan) behind the uber-dull A-Team movie could jump to such a sensational piece of film!
February 2, 2012 at 8:12PM ESTRashad I think it's way better than 8 of the 9
February 3, 2012 at 12:17AM ESTHoustonRufus Man, I need to see this.
February 3, 2012 at 12:23AM ESTJacob B
February 2, 2012 at 6:03PM EST Reply to CommentDo you think the Academy will keep the Best Picture voting system from this year?
kyled13
February 2, 2012 at 6:13PM EST Reply to CommentNot really a question, but a talking point maybe on how important SAG is in predicting nominees, I think they were 17/20 this year
loyal_mehnert
February 2, 2012 at 6:19PM EST Reply to CommentOne of your fellow Oscar prognosticators recently said they would rather influence the race than try to be 100% accurate with their predictions. My question is do you think you have any influence at all on the Oscar race? Is it more important to you to predict what you want to be nominated/win, or are you only concerned with being right?
sammarz
February 2, 2012 at 6:45PM EST Reply to CommentI'm going to repeat a question I posted back on November 17th, because I feel like a psychic right now...
With Billy Crystal as host and The Artist as a very possible Best Picture champion, do you think next year’s Oscars has a chance to be one of the most “out of touch” (as in, with mainstream audiences) Oscars in years? What do you think the Academy’s reaction will be with the hypothetical situation that the winners are The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius, Jean Dujardin, Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer (who may be somewhat well-known to mainstream audiences but starring in a movie nobody saw) and Octavia Spencer? Elle Fanning and Chloe Grace Moretz hosting in 2013?
Guy Lodge Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer are stars of a film that grossed $170 million -- they may not be major star names, but they're certainly recognisable to the public now. I imagine the Academy's pretty happy with that.
February 3, 2012 at 7:00AM ESTAlvin
February 2, 2012 at 7:00PM EST Reply to CommentWhat are the oscar chances for "The Grey"? Will the October re-release have any effect? At this point in this oscar season does the constant talking of certain films benefit critically out of nowhere movies like "The Grey"?
wisconsinkel Personally, I think he has a great narrative that in and of itself should attract the actors branch. Here we have a well respected dramatic actor who earned a nomination for Best Picture winner Schindler's List (1993), whose career took a turn for the worst when his wife died, and now here is reinventing himself as a bonafide, successful action star at age 60!
February 2, 2012 at 8:21PM ESTJJ1
February 2, 2012 at 8:01PM EST Reply to CommentIF Oldman wins at BAFTA, can you guys see a scenario where Oldman could possibly win? The Academy went more for Tinker Tailor than expected. And there may be some splintered support for Clooney and Dujardin (and Pitt to a lesser degree, but they loved Moneyball, too). What you guys think about Oldman in this last phase? :)
Guy Lodge Good on you for keeping hope alive, but that's not going to happen. Sure, Oldman might well win the BAFTA -- though my chips are on Dujardin there -- but it'd mean as much to the Oscar race as Colin Firth's win for "A Single Man" did.
February 3, 2012 at 7:03AM ESTJohn-Paul
February 2, 2012 at 8:15PM EST Reply to CommentDo you think the inevitable absence of Woody Allen and Terrence Malick at the ceremony will influence voters' ballots, and could that cost Woody the Original Screenplay Oscar? Or do you think they respect them enough to vote for them regardless of whether they'll show up to accept?
Guy Lodge It was firmly established by 1986 that Woody doesn't do the Oscars, and that didn't stop him winning for "Hannah and Her Sisters."
February 3, 2012 at 7:05AM ESTSJG
February 2, 2012 at 8:22PM EST Reply to CommentI know you and all the other Oscar bloggers I follow, Kris, seem down on the 5-10 BP nominees... but don't you think that the increased field allows for films to have increased visibility over the course of the awards season?
For example, I find myself wondering if the directors' branch would have sprung for Terrence Malick if they had already written off The Tree of Life as a potential best picture nominee, or if Rooney Mara would have cracked the acting field if people hadn't been considering The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo as a potential BP pick. The fact that the BP field doesn't narrow down to such an automatically small number might mean that people in other fields stay afloat for a while longer, I would think.
Guy Lodge It's an interesting question, but I doubt the directors' branch thinks that way -- they surely didn't think "Three Colours Red" or "Vera Drake" were potential Best Picture nominees when they voted for their directors.
February 3, 2012 at 7:07AM ESTJeffR
February 2, 2012 at 9:30PM EST Reply to CommentHow significant was Jean Dujardin's SAG win for Best Actor? George Clooney seemed like the frontrunner, but the SAG is arguably the best Oscar predictor. Is the unknown and sincere outsider Jean Dujardin winning over voters from the overly confident insider George Clooney? Will he be able to win over the Oscar voters like he did the SAG voters?
paco
February 2, 2012 at 10:19PM EST Reply to CommentAny chance to have a winning write-in candidate in the disastrous original song category. I am hoping any of the snubbed songs makes some kind of campaign in order to protest against the mistakes of the category this year
JJ1 what's the deal with write-ins anyway? I thought that was something that only happened many decades ago.
February 2, 2012 at 10:27PM ESTCoffeysr
February 2, 2012 at 11:58PM EST Reply to CommentDoes The Help's lack of overall support hurt either Viola or Octavia's chances at winning? Of all the films in Oscar history to win more than 1 acting award, only 1 has done so without a writing or directing nomination.
Alex
February 3, 2012 at 4:08AM EST Reply to CommentDoes it surprise each year to look back on the predictions you were making in March and how different they line up to what ends up being nominated?
Alex *Does it surprise you each year
February 3, 2012 at 4:10AM EST*differently
February 3, 2012 at 9:59AM ESTA Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Girl with a Dragon Tattoo
J Edgar
The Ides of March
Tree of Life
War Horse
We Brought a Zoo
Young Adult
and "other"