Taking questions for 1/20 Oscar Talk
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Sorry to get this up later than usual, but you know the drill. Fire off your need-to-knows and we'll try to address a few in the podcast. Get them in fast, though. We're recording in a few hours.
Kristopher Tapley has covered the film awards landscape for over a decade. He founded In Contention in 2005. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Times of London and Variety. He begs you not to take any of this too seriously.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
UPDATED: FEB 25, 2013
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login Signupkyled13
January 19, 2012 at 5:58PM EST Reply to CommentOscar nomination predictions?
Kristopher Tapley Nah, that would take forever. We'll do that for winners, though.
January 19, 2012 at 6:06PM ESTSergiu37 You should do at least your predictions for the Best Picture and see who gets the right number of movies nominated.
January 19, 2012 at 7:07PM ESTJoe7827
January 19, 2012 at 6:01PM EST Reply to CommentTwo questions.
1) What is your favorite aspect of the whole awards season?
2) It seems that every year there is one sure bet that still ends up missing the cut. What is one "locked in" favorite that you think could be snubbed this year? And what is one percieved also-ran (very little or no precursor recognition) that can get a surprise nomination?
JJ1
January 19, 2012 at 6:13PM EST Reply to CommentMany people are figuring that TTSS and Drive have new life for Best Pic noms with their big BAFTA noms. But since the crossover from BAFTA to AMPAS is less than 1,000 people, and because The Artist got 12 noms with BAFTA ... is it too out there to suggest that TTSS/Drive are still facing an uphill battle for a BP nom because many of those BAFTA members might be putting The Artist at #1 anyway?
Laura Stewart
January 19, 2012 at 6:13PM EST Reply to CommentWill this year go down as one of the more embarrassing years for Oscar?
JLPatt I see absolutely no reason why it would.
January 19, 2012 at 11:13PM ESTDylanS "The Artist" winning BP would be embarrassing. It would (and probably will) go down in Oscar history as a regrettable drunken hook-up, the drink being "nostalgia".
January 20, 2012 at 1:20AM ESTJLPatt Right. Give me a break.
January 20, 2012 at 2:12AM ESTloyal_mehnert
January 19, 2012 at 6:15PM EST Reply to CommentFrom the outside looking in, The Artist is having a great award season as London now marks it's 15th critics win. But I feel things are a bit more up in the air in terms of the guilds. What are the chances of the three major guild awards going to different films, PGA - The Artist, DGA - Hugo, and SAG - The Help?
Is there precedent for such a guild split or are we manufacturing drama in the Best Picture race to make up for a predictable award season?
Kristopher Tapley 2004. PGA: The Aviator; DGA: Million Dollar Baby; SAG: Sideways.
January 19, 2012 at 6:18PM ESTI think The Artist wins PGA/DGA, The Help wins SAG and The Descendants and Midnight in Paris win WGA.
Drew
January 19, 2012 at 6:17PM EST Reply to CommentDo either of you think the British support for Drive, indicated in the recent BAFTA nominations, will translate to any (surprise) Oscar nominations for the film come Tuesday?
Dean
January 19, 2012 at 6:22PM EST Reply to CommentQuick suggestion: How about a little effort to make it more exciting than it has been the last couple of weeks? A little humor could go a long way for those of us who have a strange awards season compulsion to listen to these.
Kristopher Tapley The effort is there. Week after week. I'm not a monkey.
January 19, 2012 at 6:30PM ESTDerek 8-Track I listen weekly for the steady objective commentary. When looking for passionate subjective commentary I go to Oscar Poker. When looking for an uninformed laugh fest I go to, I don't know, Slashfilmcast? I'm glad to have a variety of options.
January 19, 2012 at 7:44PM ESTcabspaintedyellow
January 19, 2012 at 6:25PM EST Reply to CommentWhat are the odds that "A Separation" pulls a "City of God" and sneaks into Best Director, or other categories like Screenplay?
rentrobuff
January 19, 2012 at 6:27PM EST Reply to CommentGuy and other prominent Oscar bloggers (like Nick Davis) are now predicting a nomination for Michael Shannon. Have you heard enough chatter among your Academy contacts to warrant this prediction, or is it simply a wish-list prediction for one of the very best performances of the year?
January 19, 2012 at 6:27PM ESTAlessandro
January 19, 2012 at 6:47PM EST Reply to CommentAny chance snubbed movies like ELIC or Margaret suddenly show up in Oscar?
Andrej
January 19, 2012 at 6:49PM EST Reply to CommentI asked this last year, and I'll ask it again:
When they announce the Oscar nominees, which particular snubbing would make you the happiest?
(Melissa McCarthy, to me).
HoustonRufus
January 19, 2012 at 6:53PM EST Reply to CommentYou guys rub elbows with Academy members or people who know Academy members. Not to put either of you in a position that sullies your professional credibility, but what are you hearing or what can you divulge? Any trends or momentum or consensus building about anything?
Andrew
January 19, 2012 at 6:56PM EST Reply to CommentWhat do you think of Malick's chances in Director (for the nomination)?
Coffeysr
January 19, 2012 at 6:59PM EST Reply to CommentWhat particular below-the-line nominations are you secretly hoping to see (or not see) come Tuesday? For me it's Moneyball in Film Editing and not seeing War Horse in Film Editing.
Sergiu37
January 19, 2012 at 7:03PM EST Reply to CommentDo you think that the prospect of an Iranian war could damage the chances of the Iranian movie(A Separation) and miss the nomination?
Joe Moe The Homo
January 19, 2012 at 7:10PM EST Reply to CommentAny chance that Rooney Mara could get into the Actress race because of Fincher? Would Swinton or Close fall out?
Lisa
January 19, 2012 at 7:13PM EST Reply to CommentLots of people are looking out for potential acting nomination SHOCKERS - and of the level of Gyllenhaal or Linney, not Bardem (who may have been a "surprise" but plenty expected it). If we get a real shocker this year who do you think it'll be?
Yibbet
January 19, 2012 at 7:19PM EST Reply to CommentOkay, so I know the Academy says we won't know the number of nominees for Best Picture until they're announced. My question is this, does anyone know if right before the Best Pic announcement they'll say "and the Academy has selected the following (X number of nominees)films as Best Picture," or will we not know the number until the last one is called (and will they be alphabetical)?
Michael W.
January 19, 2012 at 7:35PM EST Reply to CommentWhat went wrong with War Horse with the guilds? And do you think it really is out in picture and director, having to settle for just a few tech nods.
Derek 8-Track
January 19, 2012 at 7:47PM EST Reply to CommentKris, did you get your chance to chat about 'Margaret' with Scorsese at the Globes? If yes, what were his thoughts?
James
January 19, 2012 at 8:55PM EST Reply to CommentAny chance Brooks will miss out?
Bryce I'll second this since my first question disappeared. The only precedent like a Brooks snubbing that I can think of is Bill Murray in Rushmore.
January 19, 2012 at 9:16PM ESTCoffeysr Agreed with this. He got a Globe not, but missed out on SAG and BAFTA. Sure the critics adored him, but as you guys have said before, they don't vote on the Oscars. He's missed out with the 2 acting precursor bodies that overlap with the Oscars.
January 19, 2012 at 10:33PM EST4N
January 19, 2012 at 10:30PM EST Reply to CommentForeign Language shortlist reactions? Do you think the Executive Committee saved A Separation or did it make it in on its own?
Also, why does it feel like there are never huge nomination surprises anymore? It's been forever since we got one in the major categories (was Laura Linney for The Savages the last one?)
Graysmith
January 19, 2012 at 10:47PM EST Reply to CommentWhat happened with Coriolanus?
It got nowhere, even Redgrave (who two-three months ago seemed like the frontrunner to win).
Franco
January 20, 2012 at 3:23AM EST Reply to CommentWhy hasn't Pariah hit that chord with the awards folk that Precious hit a couple of years ago? It seems to be in the mold of griefsploitation and white guilt (and now straight guilt) that the academy seems to love.
Franco
January 20, 2012 at 3:24AM EST Reply to CommentWrite a comment...Why hasn't Pariah hit that chord with the awards folk that Precious hit a couple of years ago? It seems to be in the mold of griefsploitation and white guilt (and now straight guilt) that the academy seems to love.
forg
January 20, 2012 at 12:19PM EST Reply to CommentChances of Berenice Bejo getting a nod for Best Actress instead?