Taking questions for 10/7 Oscar Talk
Offer up your burning queries
Alright, you know the drill. Rifle off your need-to-knows and Anne and I will address as many as possible. Make 'em good!
Kristopher Tapley has covered the film awards landscape for over a decade. He founded In Contention in 2005. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Times of London and Variety. He begs you not to take any of this too seriously.
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
UPDATED: FEB 25, 2013
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Next 50 CommentsCoffeysr
October 5, 2011 at 4:54PM EST Reply to CommentGiven that it seems many Oscar-less veteran actors could be up for Oscars this year (Gary Oldman, Albert Brooks, Nick Nolte, Christopher Plummer, Max Von Sydow, etc), whose narrative do you think is most likely to carry them to a win? And fOr fun, who's the most deserving Oscar-less actor or actress working today?
bubbatwo420
October 5, 2011 at 4:59PM EST Reply to CommentWith most Oscar buzzyworthy films having premiered at festivals already, what are the chances that the remainder of unseen films will be able to cruise until their late 2011 release dates? Is there a rule that if a movie will be released in theatres within 30 days that it can be brought to a festival and not considered a world premere? We have our Starz Denver Film Festival coming up the first 2 weeks of November and I have a bet going that we might see Young Adult. Any thoughts?
Kidman
October 5, 2011 at 5:00PM EST Reply to CommentNow that the trailer for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has got out, can we seriously talk of Stephen Daldry's chance for a 4th best director nod (in 4 films)?
What would this record mean?
THE Diego Ortiz
October 5, 2011 at 5:10PM EST Reply to CommentI'll try this question again:
After watching "Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy" "Warrior" and "50/50", will "The Dark Knight Rises" feature 5, 6, 7 or 8 Academy Award winners/nominees?
Mark Deigo.
October 5, 2011 at 5:28PM ESTI don't get your question. Are you asking if the Dark Night Rises will be a Best Picture nominee? What does The Dark Night have in common with 50/50 and Warrior?
October 5, 2011 at 5:54PM ESTJames
October 5, 2011 at 5:26PM EST Reply to CommentOne think Anonymous could pull off a few nominations?
James My bad. You think Anonymous could pull off a few nominations?
October 5, 2011 at 5:26PM ESTbsquared318
October 5, 2011 at 5:30PM EST Reply to CommentBoth "The Help" and "Midnight in Paris" succeeded expectations and brought in both a healthy box office intake and high praise from critics (the Help not so much) and viewers. What do both these films have to do to stay in the running for Best Picture seeing as though they came out earlier in the year. Is it more likely that they will be forgotten about in light of films like War Horse and the Artist coming out at the end of the year?
Evan
October 5, 2011 at 5:47PM EST Reply to CommentGiven that the deadline to submit films was Monday, why haven't we seen the final line-up of submissions for the Foreign Language Oscar? And what happened to Chad's A Screaming Man?
Evan Ha- and now Guy has put up a relevant post! Nevermind!
October 5, 2011 at 6:43PM ESTGuy Lodge We have seen the lineup -- I was just late in posting it. It's up now.
October 5, 2011 at 6:47PM ESTAs for 'A Screaming Man', smaller African countries often don't both submitting films for one reason or another -- though in this case, I think the film might have been domestically released too early to qualify.
Guy Lodge "often don't bother", I mean.
October 5, 2011 at 6:48PM ESTAndrej
October 5, 2011 at 6:09PM EST Reply to CommentWhat do you think of the odds of Faust at the London Film Festival after winning at Venice, and if it happened, would its victory propel it into Oscar talk despite that Russia didn't submit it for Best Foreign Language Film?
Andrej "and if it happened"... I meant 'winning', duh. I'll rephrase my query:
October 5, 2011 at 6:11PM ESTWhat do you think of the odds of Faust at the London Film Festival after winning at Venice, and if it actually wins, would its victory propel it into Oscar talk despite that Russia didn't submit it for Best Foreign Language Film?
There we go. :)
Guy Lodge Since I don't think Kris or Anne have seen 'Faust', I'll chip in with a three-part answer:
October 5, 2011 at 6:59PM EST1. The film has as good a chance of winning at London as any of the other eight films on the shortlist. There's no way of guessing which way that jury will swing.
2. 'Faust' has neither a US distributor nor a 2011 release date, so it's obviously not in this year's Oscar conversation. Even for next year, however, any Oscar talk would be in the realm of fantasy -- it'd be a hard enough sell to the Academy if it were in English.
3. The London Film Festival award is a new and relatively minor one, with no impact across the pond.
4. I can't find a Russian release date for the film, but I'm not sure if it was released in time to qualify as their Oscar submission.
Hope that helps.
Andrej I see. I thought there could be some chances to get nominated regardless (like Il Divo, or Y Tu Mamá También) if it got a bunch of festival awards, but the seemingly distant release date might put it on hold.
October 5, 2011 at 9:24PM ESTI don't know how eclectic or out-there it is, but if in recent years they've warmed up somewhat to Dogtooth, Black Swan and The Milk of Sorrow, to name a few, I guess accolades and word of mouth could push it far enough, at least to get it through next year's foreign language executive committee.
Thanks for the reply, Guy! :)
DylanS
October 5, 2011 at 6:13PM EST Reply to CommentLooking at it's UK box office so far, as well as the sense of anticipation for it's release stateside, do you think "Tinker, Tailor" could be a "Black Swan" like surprise hit in the US?
loyal_mehnert
October 5, 2011 at 6:14PM EST Reply to CommentAbout the often discussed British voting block -
Is there a noticeable difference between a largely British film made by an American director like War Horse and a film like Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy?
War Horse was filmed in England with a British cast, written by British screenwriters, based on a famous novel written by a Brit. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy with a Swede at the helm isn't really any more of a British production than War Horse, and yet everyone expects the Brits to support Tinker Tailor.
Does having Spielberg behind the camera mean regardless of subject matter, his film is American and not eligible for the British voting block?
JJ1 LOVE this question. So interesting. Would love to hear Kris & Anne's takes.
October 5, 2011 at 6:39PM EST8 1/2
October 5, 2011 at 6:17PM EST Reply to CommentWhy is The Help considered such a lock when the only thing it has as an asset is the great box office run.Sure,there are several good performances but it has received extremely mediocre reviews (62 on Metacritic,which is less than Captain America and Fright Night of all movies) and considering the movies/directors that are in competition isn't it a little premature to be certain of such a film?
Isn't it ironic that The Help's great box office is deemed as a sign it's going to be nominated and yet Harry Potter and Bridesmaids made more,in the case of the first,more than double what The Help did and both have vastly superior reviews and critical acclaim?
Kristopher Tapley The box office only puts frosting on it. The Academy loved the movie.
October 6, 2011 at 6:50PM ESTjohn Stark
October 5, 2011 at 6:25PM EST Reply to CommentHow many films will do you think will make the final cut for Best Picture?
This question is for Anne: Regarding "The Help", who's story is it?
john Stark Oops...I meant, How many films do you think will make the final cut for Best Picture?
October 6, 2011 at 1:48AM ESTThis question is for Anne: Regarding "The Help", who's story is it? Also, Fargo, who's story is it?
Sam
October 5, 2011 at 6:42PM EST Reply to CommentWhat do you make of the mediocre critical reception to The Ides of March so far? Are you still predicting a Best Picture nomination (before seeing what the box office will be like)?
Sam
October 5, 2011 at 6:42PM EST Reply to CommentWrite a comment...What do you make of the mediocre critical reception to The Ides of March so far? Are you still predicting a Best Picture nomination (before seeing what the box office will be like)?
Sam
October 5, 2011 at 6:43PM EST Reply to CommentDo you still think The Ides of March will get a Best Picture nomination despite the mediocre critical reception so far?
Sam whoops. didn't realize my question was going through.
October 5, 2011 at 6:46PM ESTJulian Stark
October 5, 2011 at 6:44PM EST Reply to CommentWhich of the following four is most likely to receive an "afterglow" nomination this year: Christian Bale, Colin Firth, Melissa Leo, or Natalie Portman?
Evan Well, Bale is in a Chinese film that is barely going to make the Dec 31 deadline, Leo isn't in any films, and Portman was only in B-level RomComs this year. Meanwhile, Firth is in a best picture contender...
October 5, 2011 at 7:54PM ESTActually, just my opinion- the most likely to get a follow-up nomination is John Hawkes (or Sandra Bullock if you take into account that it's her first film since The Blind Side).
JTC
October 5, 2011 at 6:56PM EST Reply to CommentWhen thinking of the films not yet released, which film do you think will fall flat with the academy and at the box office ala Hilary Swank in Amelia?
Matthew
October 5, 2011 at 6:59PM EST Reply to CommentWhat's your take on the A.O. Scott/Manohla Dargis NYT column decrying Oscar as the "unfortunate guest" of film festivals? One of my favorite parts of Oscar Talk is the frank criticism of the films in contention, regardless of their Oscar dreams. Why shouldn't film criticism and awards talk co-exist?
Laura Stewart
October 5, 2011 at 7:14PM EST Reply to CommentCan you guys maybe shed some light on the animated film category? Also, any thoughts on Jessica Chastain being pushed for a supporting nom in TOL versus the 23409324 other films that she will be pushed for in the same category? Good/bad?
don Do you think Keira Knightley has any chance? She definitly is buzz worhty and several publications which praised her performance, which include the hollywood reporter and the wall street journal?
October 5, 2011 at 7:30PM ESTscott
October 5, 2011 at 8:26PM EST Reply to CommentWhat is the possibility that the girl with the dragon tattoo does at the oscar's? after watching the 3 minute clip, I truly believe that Rooney Mara really does have a shot, do you agree and why? My reasoning- Noomi Rapace 2010
LousyPancakeEater
October 5, 2011 at 8:31PM EST Reply to CommentMany seem to be dismissing The Ides of March's potential as a contender due to its lukewarm critical reception, but I generally find BFCA scores (it currently sits at 92) to have stronger correlation with Academy taste than RT or Metacritic scores. Also, I know you and Anne are both BFCA members (with obviously more astute taste than the Dorothy Luceys and Ben Lyons' of the organization) and spoke very highly of the film. My question is, of the individuals you've spoken to who belong to AMPAS or share similar taste, is there the kind of PASSIONATE support for The Ides of March to get it nods for Best Picture/Directing/Screenplay/etc.?
Laura Stewart Harvey Weinstein was foaming at the mouth for it... and it's not even his film!
October 5, 2011 at 8:45PM ESTLaura Stewart
October 5, 2011 at 8:44PM EST Reply to CommentOooh, I have one more. Since the trailer for My Week with Marilyn came out- how do you guys feel about Michelle Williams in the lead category? I know you both had some reservations about the role.
Drew C
October 5, 2011 at 9:21PM EST Reply to CommentWhere do you feel the documentary feature field is heading so far right now? With the added eligibility time do other films have a chance that we haven't seen yet.
I just caught "Buck" earlier this week, and was blown away by the emotion and the portrait. Oscar chances?
Drew C
October 5, 2011 at 9:28PM EST Reply to CommentI asked the question about younger actors (particularly in Extremely Loud, and Incredibly Close) always being supporting actors in Anne's opinion. (BTW, the young boy Oskar is absolutely the lead of the novel Extremely Loud...)
I understand she's answering from a "what they think" opinion, but what does she think. Does she insist that all young actors have to prove themselves before being considered leads, then what about people like Audrey Hepburn and even more recently Carey Mulligan?
P.S. Anne, I promise, I'm not trying to be a pest. I'm just genuinely interested.
JJ1 Right. She couldn't spit out last time what her opinion was. DOES she believe in the AMPAS idoelogy on that or not?
October 6, 2011 at 8:40AM ESTGreg
October 5, 2011 at 10:04PM EST Reply to CommentDo you think Melissa Leo's self-promotion last year will have any effect on how actors' future campaigns will be run? Do you foresee more actors promoting themselves in this way?
Steve G
October 5, 2011 at 11:03PM EST Reply to CommentWhat films/performances do you think might show up in the Golden Globes Comedy/Musical categories this year? Besides Bridesmaids and Kristen Wiig, which seems like a given, and noting the HFPA's tendency for promoting, I mean nominating, December releases.
Bennett
October 5, 2011 at 11:59PM EST Reply to CommentDo you think that the anticipation for year-end movies, such as War Horse and Extremely Loud, stifles the enjoyment and appreciation of the movies that you have already seen?
Chris85
October 6, 2011 at 12:28AM EST Reply to CommentHow does it look for Tilda Swinton in 'We Need To Talk About Kevin' as a Best Actress nominee?
Chris85
October 6, 2011 at 12:32AM EST Reply to CommentIs there any Oscar buzz on Roland Emmerich's Anonymous?
Demetri
October 6, 2011 at 1:29AM EST Reply to Commentwhat are the chances Kevin Smith's Red State gets a nomination for Michael Parks, John Goodman or Melissa Leo? Would you say this is impossible or improbable?
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