Sony Classics aims for lead with Keira Knightley in 'A Dangerous Method,' supporting for 'Carnage' cast
Will it pay off?
Keira Knightley in a scene from "A Dangerous Method"
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When I spoke to Sony Classics honcho Michael Barker at this year's Telluride Film Festival, he told me, "Watch out for Jodie Foster." We were talking about the lead actress category at the time, and Roman Polanski's "Carnage" had just played the Venice fest. He was high on her chances and feeling invigorated by reactions to her showy turn in the film.
Well, things change in an Oscar season. According to screening literature recently placed at the studio's official site, not only will Foster actually be campaigned in the supporting actress category, but so will co-star Kate Winslet. Additionally, the other actors in the film's quartet -- Christoph Waltz and John C. Reilly -- will be campaigned for supporting actor, taking the entire cast out of lead contention.
This, I think, is a smart way to go. The Best Actress race is already filling up and seems to have little room for movement between seven or eight serious possibilities. Meanwhile, the film's best shot at a nomination is probably for Christoph Waltz's smarmy lawyer (the character portrayed by Jeff Daniels on Broadway). And in a category that has a lot of wiggle room, I think he becomes a real possibility now.
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I wasn't a big fan of Polanski's film or Foster's performance, which I found to be way too broad. She will fare better in supporting actress than in lead, but I don't know how far she'll get. Nevertheless, again, I see the logic and think it's a smart play.
Not as smart, in my opinion, is gunning for a Best Actress nomination for Keira Knightley's histrionic performance in David Cronenberg's "A Dangerous Method." For reasons mentioned above, Knightley is likely to face a tougher road to a nod than she would have in supporting. I imagine the move has something to do with the fact that the studio has performances from Marion Cotillard, Jessica Chastain and now Jodie Foster, among others, to promote for supporting, with nothing to work with in lead.
Well, that's not entirely true. There is Vera Farmiga in "Higher Ground." And I suppose either Leila Hatami or Sareh Bayat could be campaigned for their wonderful work in "A Separation" (which is set for release within the year as opposed to the usual tactic of holding foreign films for the following year). But as far as viable options, there isn't anything beyond Knightley or Foster, and so they've made their call as to which goes where.
These decisions aren't up to the studios exclusively, mind you. Personal publicity for the talent has to sign off on any such move, and sometimes, they'll even end up working against the best interests of a contender in order to get the spotlight of a higher profile campaign. I'm not at all insinuating that's what's going on here, I'm just saying if you have beef with the decision, it's not just the studio who is implicated.
So, with that in mind, what do you say to this? These films haven't been released yet but maybe some of you have caught them at this or that festival. Any thoughts?
(These changes will be reflected in Monday's chart update.)
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupBryan
October 29, 2011 at 9:20PM EST Reply to CommentI think Waltz has the best chance of the Carnage quartet, but I would suggest that Winslet has a better shot than Foster. Winslet is hot off of her Emmy win, and Foster's seems to have been the most divisive performance. Just a guess.
And what a poor draw for Knightley. She had a great shot in supporting, but in lead? That virtually takes her out of the race.
Al Sorry but Knightley is lead and for once I am glad that Sony is not confusing the voters trying to put her in supporting when she is not. Only Ruding and the Weinsteins love to do category fraud so that they can get a nod.
October 31, 2011 at 3:50PM ESTjoy
October 29, 2011 at 9:41PM EST Reply to CommentDamn as much as i loved Waltz's performance, I really hope he doesn't take away a slot from a real supporting actor.
Ivan
October 29, 2011 at 9:51PM EST Reply to CommentThere is always a comparison between the actors from the movie and the Broadway play. You haven't watched Jodie in a Broadway play, or seen Hope Davis or Marcia Gay Harden in a movie. Maybe they would blew it on screen, maybe not, we don't know. Maybe they would be much much better. I am very satisfied with Jodie in this role, but that is only my opinion. Academy loves showy roles, I think that is one of the reasons some people doubt Glenn Close will be in top five with her quiet performance. So, smart move for SPC, they will get at least two of the "Carnage" actors in top 5.
Guy Lodge "There is always a comparison between the actors from the movie and the Broadway play."
October 30, 2011 at 3:27AM ESTFor a tiny, tiny percentage of the film's audience, maybe. For everyone else, the movie is all they have to measure the performances by.
October 30, 2011 at 1:17PM ESTIvan Yes, Guy, that's true, but the critics are the ones who are saying it out loud. It was Polanski's decision, he opted for new actors (more profitable ones, that's a fact)... if he chose the actors from the play, I bet many would argue that the movie is nothing more than a "televised" play. So, you can't win them all. I liked "Carnage", not on my top 10 this year, but close. Jodie and Waltz are in top 5, i think.
October 30, 2011 at 1:36PM ESTLaura Stewart
October 29, 2011 at 9:56PM EST Reply to CommentI thought Winslet fared better than Foster in Carnage. They were both stiff, but Winslet had more to work with IMO. Waltz was great as usual and I agree he certainly has a real shot at grabbing a nom but I really liked Reilly. I reacted with lots of laughter to Reilly's performance, which I found to be quite the hoot.
Knightley in supporting, absolutely. I haven't seen the film but even the trailer makes it seem like she's much more of a supporting character. Plus, as pleasant as Cotillard was in Midnight in Paris, I don't see a nomination for that performance at all.
David Glassman "I haven't seen the film but even the trailer makes it seem like she's much more of a supporting character. "
October 30, 2011 at 11:27AM ESTCome on! This is one of the world's greatest stars, playing THE unsung heroine of psychoanalysis. If anything, the men support her character's arc. How in the world are people so completely missing the mark on this? Sony did the right thing by the actor and the performance here.
Laura Stewart World's greatest star? Are we talking about Kiera Knightley here? She's a good actress but not quite one of the world's greatest stars. And I suppose I'm making a huge assumption with saying she belongs in supporting having not seen the film- I can admit that- but I maintain she probably has a better chance of battling it out for a spot in supporting than leading. Leading is pretty much set, give or take one spot and if the reviews for ADM are any indication, Knightley isn't earning enough raves to make an argument for that spot.
October 30, 2011 at 8:47PM ESTHoustonRufus
October 29, 2011 at 10:32PM EST Reply to CommentHowever sensible their strategy, I'm not seeing Knightly or the Carnage cast getting traction.
Danny
October 29, 2011 at 11:20PM EST Reply to CommentIt's too bad that Vera Farmiga's fine work as actor and director in "Higher Ground" has gotten so little attention. Nice to see her at least mentioned here. Do you think it might be remembered by the Independent Spirit Awards (it is eligible, right?)?
Rashad Her work in Henry's Crime is overlooked too.
October 30, 2011 at 1:27AM ESTBenjamin
October 29, 2011 at 11:23PM EST Reply to CommentHow come Woody Allen isn't mentioned anywhere in the screening literature for Midnight in Paris?
Will
October 29, 2011 at 11:58PM EST Reply to CommentSeems like a mistake to me. Say hello to Leslie Mansville, I guess.
jake
October 30, 2011 at 1:11AM EST Reply to CommentKris : I beleive winslet has the bezst shot... she had a great year... its something like 2008 (the reader /revolutionary road).... But this year she did mildred pierce(some say her career best).. contagion(her most muted performance) and carnage.. But my question is.. dont u think she can get a nom for contagion(people have loved the movie and she stands out in that role as a scientist who eventually dies finding a cure)... and wid the carnage performance (many critics thuink she is good).She could have been a lock for best supporting actress nomination if the studios promote her well for both the movies... what do u think kris.. u think she has any shot at all????
Kristopher Tapley I think Winslet is best in show but she's also the most understated performer of the piece. I think the Oscar chances go Waltz > Foster > Reilly > Winslet
October 30, 2011 at 2:47AM ESTJJ1 To expand a little bit on 'Contagion'. That film is doing quite well, don't we think? It's charging for 75 mill domestic if not 80. It's a cool film to literally talk about. The reviews were solid. The pedigree is great. It's Soderbergh. And I read the public response as pretty positive, as well. Any chance that film will make a comeback and get a few surprise noms (editing, acting, or more)?
October 30, 2011 at 7:43AM ESTjake what about her contagion chances kris???
October 30, 2011 at 9:28AM ESTKristopher Tapley None, I think, but they will be gunning for screenplay. And I think the editing is worthy.
October 30, 2011 at 3:23PM ESTLaura Stewart She's just warming up for next year... 'Labor Day', people!!
October 30, 2011 at 8:49PM ESTjake
October 30, 2011 at 1:15AM EST Reply to CommentI beleive winslet has the best shot... she had a great year... its something like 2008 (the reader /revolutionary road).... But this year she did mildred pierce(some say her career best).. contagion(her most muted performance) and carnage.. But my question is.. dont u think she can get a nom for contagion(her most muted performance and people loved the movie.)... and wid the carnage performance (critical reviews for her are good)She could have been a lock for best supporting actress nomination if the studios promote her well for both movies... with two good roles it would be hard to ignore an oscar champ like her. Also the reason i am saying contagion is that people may have sympathies with a scientist who ends up dying after searching a cure for the desease rather than a mother role.. what do you think
?????
Wozzaseds Err. Was there really any need for the spoiler. Contagion was only released here this weekend and haven't caught it yet!
October 30, 2011 at 6:16AM ESTJoe7827 Really... and to post the spoiler twice? Come on.
October 30, 2011 at 8:55AM ESTBesides, I thought that Jennifer Ehle was best in show.
jake i didnt mean 2 post it 2wice.. server problem... I thot it didn't get posted.. but it did...
October 30, 2011 at 9:29AM ESTMark I agree with Joe 7827...Jennifer Ehle was the most valuable player in "Contagion." I thought her performance was lovely (the scene with her father) and understated.
October 30, 2011 at 12:38PM ESTDrood
October 30, 2011 at 8:38AM EST Reply to CommentDefinitely the right placement for Knightley (which I've commented upon here in the past). She stands a good shot at a nod...
LaHaine
October 30, 2011 at 9:15AM EST Reply to CommentHey kris or Guy, why am I not seeing Best O. Screenplay and Director for Midnight in Paris in those screening documents? And do you have any examples where a campaign for lead resulted in a nomination in supporting (or vice-versa) none the less?
Danny One vice versa example would be Winslet nominated and winning as Best Actress when she was campaigned as supporting for "The Reader".
October 30, 2011 at 11:23AM ESTLaHaine Oh that's very true Danny! Do you know whats up with the screenplay and director absence, are they going to bother campaigning for woody?
October 30, 2011 at 12:05PM ESTKristopher Tapley No idea.
October 30, 2011 at 3:24PM ESTDuke
October 30, 2011 at 11:19AM EST Reply to CommentI think this decision for the actors of Carnage is good in terms of Oscar chances, but it´s terrible if you consider the Golden Globes chances. I had them all in my predictions for GG nominations in Lead Comedy. The GG could really give this team more buzz. Now I don´t think they will get a nomination from GG, which makes it tougher to get an Oscar nomination. Don´t you guys agree?? Foster/Winslet/Waltz/Reilly will have to struggle without a GG nom, IMO.
John-Paul The Globes don't always have the same category placement as the Oscars, so they may very well still be nominated in the lead categories there. Off the top of my head, Catherine Zeta-Jones was nominated in the comedy/musical lead category at the Globes and was then nominated (and won) Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars.
October 30, 2011 at 6:06PM ESTDuke But if the studio will campaign they as supporting, the tendency is that they get nominated in that category. SAG Awards, for an example, is obligated to nominated the actor in the category the studio submit, they cannot change category.
October 30, 2011 at 9:38PM ESTBefore, I predicted 3 nominations for the cast of Carnage in the GG, now I predict none. I think it will be something not very good for the marketing of the film. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
forfoljare
October 30, 2011 at 11:50AM EST Reply to CommentI'd love for A Separation to get attention outside of the Foreign category.
thekingbulletin
October 30, 2011 at 11:53PM EST Reply to CommentDid either Kris or Guy see "Higher Ground"?
Guy Lodge I have not -- no UK screenings yet.
October 31, 2011 at 5:06AM ESTj
October 31, 2011 at 3:13PM EST Reply to CommentI analyzed category confusion thoroughly recently because of my crazy. Looking at Oscar/Bafta/Globe when a performance was nommed for all 3 or else won at least 1 out of 2:
By far the most common category difference is Bafta pushing things lead when elsewhere they were supporting (18), with a handful of Comedy Globe nominees otherwise in supporting; Globe pushes sup twice (both ending in Actress wins), Bafta pushes sup once (Page), and Oscar disagreeing with Bafta/Globe once (Smith).
JJ1 interesting. thanks for that :)
October 31, 2011 at 6:21PM EST