Round-up: Anticipating Oscar voters' passion play
Also: Defending 'The Artist' and delaying 'Wettest County'
Will Michael Fassbender's work in "Shame" attract enough passion votes for an Oscar nod?
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The words "passion vote" get repeated with numbing frequency in the Oscar prediction racket, as pundits try to separate the niche contenders who inspire fierce devotion from the broadly agreeable ones who appear to be nobody's favorite. Year after year, we convince ourselves the former are in a more advantageous position; year after year, films like "Frost/Nixon" somehow get nominated. Mark Harris addresses this dichotomy in his column this week, acknowledging the films and actors that seem primed for passion votes (Fassbender, Swinton, "Margaret"), while wondering if they have enough support to overcome the Academy's dutiful tendency to reward dull familiarity and hard work ("an A-for-effort nomination for Leonardo DiCaprio" about sums it up). [Grantland]
Anne Thompson talks to WGA nominee John Logan, whose diverse 2011 accomplishments include "Hugo," "Rango" and "Coriolanus." [Thompson on Hollywood]
The venerable David Thomson closes his long-running Biographical Dictionary series at The Guardian with an entry on Michael Fassbender. [The Guardian]
Stephanie Zacharek tells the detractors why she loves "The Artist," despite it being "allegedly the Philistine's choice for movie of the year." [Slate]
Richard Brody bemoans the flawed foreign-language Oscar selection process, suggests the same sensible alternative many of us have called for. [New Yorker]
The release of "The Wettest County in the World," one of our most anticipated of 2012, has been pushed back to August. No worse than April, surely. [LA Times]
Steven Soderbergh on "Haywire," and why he likes killing movie stars. [The Independent]
R. Kurt Osenlund weighs up the Oscar potential of "The Tree of Life." [Slant]
Marc Lee on the sort-of-campaign that just won't die: an Oscar for Uggie! I'm still entirely on board. [The Telegraph]
Elton John, the man who stands to make "Gnomeo and Juliet" an Academy Award nominee, talks to Steve Pond about his film work. [The Odds]
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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January 6, 2012 at 12:32PM EST Reply to CommentMaybe I'm being naïve, but surely Swinton is in considering she has GG, SAG, BFCA nods and is likely for a Bafta nod too? I wouldn't consider her a "passion vote" as such.
Frank Lee
January 6, 2012 at 12:40PM EST Reply to CommentI like Michael Fassbender a lot. I particularly liked him in "Inglorious Basterds," and I thought he played Carl Jung just right in "A Dangerous Method." But I wasn't that impressed with him in "Shame," largely because the movie wasn't very impressive, and that may be what kills his chances for a nomination. He has two emotional scenes in the film: the one with the single tear rolling down his face when his sister sings "New York, New York" (of all the terrible songs to choose!), and his breakdown scene at the end. But those scenes don't really connect with the audience. His tear has something to do with the fact that he and his sister "come from bad people," we are later told. And the breakdown at the end is just odd since he hasn't learned anything during the course of the film that he wouldn't have already known about himself at the beginning of the film. We've learned a bit about him, but his self-knowledge is the same. (His character is a bit like Charlize Theron's in "Young Adult" in that sense.) The script has lots of other problems: I mean, I don't want "Ordinary People," where the analyst has all the answers, but wouldn't this guy have sought professional help before now? I would have enjoyed seeing Fassbender's impatience with his shrink's glib observations. Maybe it's true that there is passionate support for Fassbender's nomination out there, but he didn't get a SAG nomination, and it's not like support for "Shame" in general is going to carry him.
Paul Outlaw "But those scenes don't really connect with the audience."
January 6, 2012 at 1:35PM ESTIs "the audience" your nickname, or am I missing something?
Pod This guy has basically been shortlisted for most possible critic's awards for which he was eligible, hit the GG+BFCA (and probably BAFTA) precursor, most likely to win NSFC, but simply because he misses out on SAG, his Oscar nomination's on life support?
January 6, 2012 at 2:58PM ESTI've always thought a nomination for his work in Shame was an uphill battle for various reasons, but I think as of now, his Oscar chances are looking good. Great campaign job by Fox Searchlight and himself, great performance, he'd surely deserve if it indeed happens.
John A. I am also torned about his performance, mostly because I found the film very hamfisted. A lot of the film's problem you have already mentioned. I had a hard time connecting to him and the film in general.
January 6, 2012 at 4:32PM ESTHe is a talented actor, and I am still very interested in seeing him reteaming with Steve McQueen. Huger was a very powerful film.
Jonnybon
January 6, 2012 at 1:17PM EST Reply to Comment"Year after year, films like "Frost/Nixon" somehow get nominated."
What?!
Parrill Ummm...You know Frost/Nixon isn't very good right?
January 6, 2012 at 1:54PM ESTJonnybon Frost/Nixon is awesome. Easily Top 3 of 2008.
January 6, 2012 at 2:19PM ESTJLPatt I wouldn't have nominated it personally, but the Academy could have done much, MUCH worse. Seems silly to complain about that film in particular.
January 6, 2012 at 4:44PM ESTJonnybon In that year alone, who can honestly claim that other Best Picture nominees "Milk" and "The Reader" are better? "The Dark Knight's" spot was lost to those two -- not "Frost/Nixon."
January 6, 2012 at 5:28PM ESTPaul Outlaw Milk is better than Frost/Nixon. The Reader? Blech.
January 6, 2012 at 6:09PM ESTJonnybon Frost/Nixon is better than Milk.
January 6, 2012 at 7:49PM ESTDylanS No, Milk is fantastic, Frost/Nixon is a few tiers below. The Reader blows.
January 6, 2012 at 11:52PM ESTPrettok 2008 sucked. Frost/Nixon, Milk, Benjamin Button, and the Reader weren't awful movies, but they got their nominations automatically because they 'seemed' like good movies. They had that odor of 'oscar' quality about them. Made to win awards and then be forgotten 6 months later. This is why they needed to increase the number of nominations.
January 7, 2012 at 1:19AM ESTJLPatt No, 2008 was one of the best years of the last decade, and "Milk" one of its absolute best films. Few films come even close to the sheer power of what Van Sant and crew did there.
January 7, 2012 at 1:50AM ESTJonnybon Nah. Frost/Nixon triumphs.
January 7, 2012 at 6:37AM ESTAndre I don't really get the hate for Frost/Nixon.. it was my favorite among the BP nominees that year, along with Milk.
January 8, 2012 at 12:26AM ESTI've watched it a few more times and still enjoy it quite a bit! still think it was better than most of the nominated films that year in most oscar categories...
(PS.: Kris, been having trouble posting comments when I try to log in with facebook. has anyone else reported similar problems or is it my dinky computer acting up again?)
Ivon
January 6, 2012 at 2:10PM EST Reply to CommentDiCaprio wasn't spectacular in J. Edgar, it's true, but the Academy tends to underreward DiCaprio. I thought his performance in Revolutionary Road one of the most astonishingly accomplished of the aughties (in my opinion easily better than Penn and Rourke that year), yet he couldn't even get a nomination acting against a nearly as good Winslet and the superb Michael Shannon in a film helmed by a very highly-respected director. I also wouldn't have grudged him a nom for Catch Me If You Can and The Basketball Diaries.
chutneylix Underreward is a great way to describe his problem. Catch Me If You Can was a huge miss for me. Thought he was fantastic
January 6, 2012 at 2:44PM ESTPaul Outlaw "Underrewarded" sounds like "overdue" to me, and as a fan of Gary Oldman, Christopher Plummer, Peter O'Toole, Robert Downey, Jr., Don Cheadle, Cary Grant and Richard Burton, I have to disagree.
January 6, 2012 at 3:35PM ESTLaura Stewart Disagree, I don't think DiCaprio is overdue... he's only 36 but I think Ivon and Chutney are inferring that the Academy looks over DiCaprio's worthy performances and nominates him for stuff like Blood Diamond and most likely J. Edgar. Or at least those are my thoughts. Catch Me If You Can and Shutter Island remain two of his best performances to date.
January 6, 2012 at 5:24PM ESTLaura Stewart Don friggin' Cheadle! Loved him in Boogie Nights.
January 6, 2012 at 5:25PM ESTLaura Stewart And I don't know why I said disagree because I'm not really disagreeing with Paul... and now I've posted 3 comments... teehee.
January 6, 2012 at 5:27PM ESTPaul Outlaw Hey, Laura.;-) The fact that DiCap. has been nominated for three Oscars to Oldman's none makes him way "overrewarded" in my opinion. Doesn't matter what he was "rewarded" for so far.
January 6, 2012 at 6:08PM ESTJonnybon Where's the logic in that?
January 6, 2012 at 7:52PM ESTPaul Outlaw Jonnybon, is your question directed to Ivon, me, Chutneylix or Laura?
January 6, 2012 at 8:39PM ESTJonnybon When you don't mention a name, the question goes to the last person to speak, of course. I believe you know I was addressing you, as yours was both the last comment and the illogical comment :)
January 6, 2012 at 9:17PM ESTDylanS Why do I get the feeling that people are using DiCaprio's oscar potential to makes digs at "J. Edgar". Say what you will about the film, (I kinda liked it, but I understand peoples qualms with it), DiCaprio isn't what's wrong with that film. He's giving a very strong performance in a film that doesn't entirely support it. I think it's one of his best.
January 6, 2012 at 11:55PM ESTJJ1 I think people are antsy because Leo is a talented actor who always gives his all and if J. Edgar were a better film, he'd likely be a strong frontrunner for the Oscar. Now, people will have to wait for 2 big roles next year as potential win-worthy performances. I do think he's better than the 3 noms he's received. So yeah, there's an ansty factor there, I think.
January 7, 2012 at 8:52AM ESTAll that said, can't disagree that someone like Gary Oldman not receiving anything so far is quantifiably ridiculous. But I'm not talking about him, I'm talking about Leo.
Laura Stewart DylanS- You can't entirely separate DiCaprio from the ultimate failure of the film. DiCaprio IS good, I'll agree, but he isn't spectacular. This isn't one of his greatest performances in my opinion. Look, a film like My Week with Marilyn (which I like a hell of a lot more than the head honcho's here at In Contention) isn't amazing but Michelle Williams IS and she carries the whole thing. DiCaprio did not give a performance worthy of an Oscar nomination, in my opinion. I'm disappointed in both the film and his performance (to a certain extent, like I said I don't think he was horrible but he wasn't revelatory). As I mentioned above and JJ1 reiterated- he tends to get passed over for performances or at least A performance that is flat out outstanding (again- Shutter Island, Catch Me If You Can, and The Departed rank up there). At least with Blood Diamond he had the simultaneous raves from The Departed to keep him afloat. I didn't even hate J. Edgar, it's just not a film that I would consider a best effort by anyone involved. Oh well... on to the next. Gatsby Oscar 2013 here we gooooo!
January 7, 2012 at 4:14PM EST@Paul- FINE. You win this round :)
sheila kind I would argue that DiCaprio's performance in J. Edgar is every bit as challenging as anyone's performance this year. Yeah, it's not spectacular in the sense that you feel totally engaged with the character, but that's the character of Hoover, not DiCaprio. It's still a meaty and finely realized piece of work -- likeable or not. It's also an underrated one, just as J. Edgar is underrated as a film (not a perfect film but it does have it's rewards for the patient and inquisitive viewer -- not an easy sit though). Personally think this will be looked back on as much more worthy than it's being viewed now. Just because a performance isn't spectacular (whatever the hell that means) doesn't make it unworthy in my opinion. Spectacular can mean all sorts of things to different viewers and I'm sure it means something altogether different to Ms. Stewart than it does to me and some others here.
January 8, 2012 at 12:08PM ESTAnita
January 6, 2012 at 5:29PM EST Reply to CommentLove Zacharek's defence of The Artist. It won't slow down the rate of people presenting their own negative and dismissive opinion of it as fact, but it's more than welcome in my eyes. But that's probably because I'm a Philistine.
Liz
January 6, 2012 at 8:21PM EST Reply to CommentThe last weekend is August seems like a much worse slot for The Wettest County than April (and not only because it's farther away). It's a notorious dumping ground for movies that studios are trying to bury (Apollo 18, Machete, All About Steve, etc.)
This was never going to be a blockbuster, of course. But I'm very disappointed to see such a lack of faith in it. John Hillcoat really needs to escape from the clutches of the Weinsteins.
DylanS I think this is actually clever counter-programming on Harvey's part, end of august always features critical duds, so if this is a strong film as some have suggested (and with it's pedigree, it should be) than it will get a lot of people talking about it, cause lord knows they wont want to talk about anything else.
January 6, 2012 at 11:59PM ESTGuy Lodge "and with its pedigree, it should be"
January 7, 2012 at 9:29AM ESTAren't these so often famous last words? That said, I'm rooting for the film as much as you are.
DylanS You are so right, Guy. But I'd have a hard time not being excited seeing Hardy, Oldman and Hillcoat all work together. Fuck, even Shia Lebitch can't ruin the excitement on this one for me.
January 8, 2012 at 10:53PM ESTDylanS
January 7, 2012 at 12:09AM EST Reply to CommentI get what Zacharek is getting at with the more effective simplicity through a more pictorial style of storytelling, but was Malick really the person to pick on? Sure, there's voiceover, but it's not expository voice-over, it's people's thoughts, and his sensibility is to state the obvious, very pictorial. What Hazanavicius did is pure fetishism, there's a way to make a modern silent film without directly lifting the style of older silent films. Look at the beginning of "There Will Be Blood", for example.
Brock Landers
January 7, 2012 at 11:35PM EST Reply to CommentKris or Guy, what do you think has the best shot at best documentary? I'm starting to think that Paradise Lost might win. It premieres on HBO right before nominations, these guys were just released, and there is a ton of support for them in Hollywood. On top of it being a good documentary (I'm assuming it is, as I've heard good things), a win for it would only raise awareness of this tragic case even more.
Guy Lodge Project Nim is the on-paper favourite, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see something else sneak in there. Paradise Lost is possible. So is Hell and Back Again. So is Pina, even.
January 8, 2012 at 6:50AM EST