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Predicting the 2011 WGA nominees

Which scripts benefit in the wake of ineligibilities?

Predicting the 2011 WGA nominees

Yes, "Bridesmaids" is likely to keep the hope alive with a WGA nomination tomorrow.

Credit: Universal Pictures

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Tomorrow the Writers Guild of America (WGA) announces its narrative feature and documentary nominees. Something to remember is that a number of this year's Oscar-contending screenplays are ineligible for the award due to membership or signatory issues, meaning this is just an opportunity for other films that wouldn't normally have much room to get into the awards conversation.

The list of ineligibilities seems longer than normal this year. Or maybe it just seemed like there were more Oscar possibilities on that list than normal. In any case, you can count films like "The Artist," "Drive," "Martha Marcy May Marlene," "Shame," "My Week with Marilyn," "Rango," "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" and more out.

So what does that leave? Well, there are some options. But the ultimate list of nominees here won't do a whole lot to clear up the Oscar race, both as a result of the above and the fact that the Academy's writers branch can often stray from the expected path a bit.

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Speaking of which, oh how I would love for the Academy to jump on Team "Margaret" (which was finally sent to the membership and surely speaks to writers). A guy can dream. We've seen some go-their-own-way picks in the past, such as with "In the Loop," "In Bruges" and "The Barbarian Invasions."

On the latter, foreign films rarely qualify for WGA but can show up with the Academy. That's why the year's best reviewed film, "A Separation," shouldn't be counted out of the Oscar race.

Getting back to the WGA, this could mark four out of four guild citations for "The Descendants," "The Help," and "Bridesmaids." That will change course on Monday when the DGA speaks up, of course.

Alright, enough talk. Here's what I'm predicting:

Best Adapted Screenplay:

"The Descendants"

"The Help"

"Hugo"

"The Ides of March"

"Moneyball"

Best Original Screenplay:

"Bridesmaids"

"Contagion"

"50/50"

"Midnight in Paris"

"Win Win"

Other possibilities for each include "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," "Super 8" and "Warrior."

What are your picks?

For year-round entertainment news and awards season commentary follow @kristapley on Twitter.

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  • Default-avatar

    JLPatt

    Am I missing something? "Moneyball" wasn't nominated at the ADG?

    January 4, 2012 at 2:52PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley You're right. Oops.

      January 4, 2012 at 2:55PM EST
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley (And obviously you WEREN'T missing something.)

      January 4, 2012 at 2:55PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Alessandro

    Unfortunatly "Drive" it's ineligible.

    January 4, 2012 at 3:01PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley Indeed it is.

      January 4, 2012 at 3:19PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    JCS

    I'm so happy that Contagion is going to at least get a shot here, as I fear it's unfortunately not going to connect with AMPAS. Scott Z Burns should have won the Adapted Screenplay Oscar for The Informant! and I'm a big admirer of his work to date; he and Sodebergh make a great team.

    January 4, 2012 at 3:32PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Rg Serna

    ctiesw

    January 4, 2012 at 3:40PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Rg Serna

    Is Potter no chance for the adapted screenplay?? just asking what do you think about it..no biggie...

    January 4, 2012 at 3:41PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley Probably not.

      January 4, 2012 at 3:42PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Frank Lee

    Even with the ineligibilities clearing the field, I don't think "Hugo" has a chance. The script is clearly the weakest aspect of that film. I agree completely with Kris that "The Help" is a likely nominee. I would say the same for its chances with the Academy.

    January 4, 2012 at 3:49PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      JLPatt My oh my do you despise that film, huh? Anyway, kind of ridiculous for you to say the script is *clearly* the weakest aspect of that film. Not that I disagree, but obviously others don't think so.

      January 4, 2012 at 3:58PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      JJ1 After watching The Help for a 3rd time last week and seeing that it was nommed for the ADG, I'm starting to think it could be a strong contender in the mix with The Artist, Descendants, War Horse, and Hugo. I think it's a stellar film (overall, there are flaws), and it's a film that people love (most notably, actors).

      January 4, 2012 at 4:12PM EST
  • Images_talkback_profile

    Laura Stewart

    No Beginners or Young Adult for original? Le sigh.

    January 4, 2012 at 5:32PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley Beginners isn't eligible.

      January 4, 2012 at 6:16PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Ali E.

    What about We Need to Talk About Kevin? Is it eligible? Nothing's mentioned anywhere about it.

    January 4, 2012 at 8:15PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley If you click the link leading to the list of ineligibilities, you'll see it's not there. Ergo, it's eligible.

      January 4, 2012 at 9:02PM EST
  • Pic_talkback_profile

    forg

    Original Screenplay exciting should have some out of the nowhere picks, excited!

    January 4, 2012 at 9:09PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    RichardA

    My favs for originals are Midnight in Paris, Win/Win, and Young Adult. For just being completely original Midnight In Paris tops it, Win/Win is all about getting the right tone and oh, so real. Young Adult gets tons of credit for degree of difficulty.

    January 4, 2012 at 9:37PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    daveylo

    Win Win had one of the most predictable screenplays of the year. McCarthy's weakest script.

    January 5, 2012 at 1:47AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Hal_9000_talkback_profile

    DylanS

    Adapted:
    "The Descendants"
    "War Horse"
    "The Ides of March"
    "Moneyball"
    "Hugo"

    Original:
    "Bridesmaids"
    "Young Adult"
    "50/50"
    "Midnight in Paris"
    "Win, Win"

    January 5, 2012 at 2:27AM EST Reply to Comment

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Spearheaded by editor Kristopher Tapley, In Contention represents a collective of awards obsessives who comment and reflect upon, muse about and attempt to decipher the Oscar season on a daily basis throughout the year, and especially during the Oscar crunch of the fall. Regular contributors include Guy Lodge, Roth Cornet and Gerard Kennedy.

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2011-2012 OSCAR NOMINATIONS

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Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay

Best Art Direction

Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

Best Film Editing

Best Makeup

Best Original Score

Best Original Song

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Best Sound Mixing

Best Visual Effects

Best Animated Feature Film

Best Documentary Feature

Best Foreign Language Film

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