Oscar Talk: Ep. 80 -- The runaway 'Artist' train and Santa Barbara tributes
Also: Is 'The Grey' the first Oscar contender of 2012?
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Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you're new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar's stage and we're here to address it all as it unfolds.
It's been about a week and a half since we assessed the season immediately post-nominations. Today Anne and I are both back in LA after trips to Sundance and Santa Barbara and there have been some awards announcements in the interim. So let's see what's on the docket today…
First up this week is discussion of the two big guilds of the last two weekends: the PGA and DGA, which both went to "The Artist." It's obviously a runaway train at this point, and I try not to beat up on it too much. I do.
The SAG Awards also happened recently, including a big surprise win for Jean Dujardin. We springboard off of that to discuss the Best Actor category, which seems to be more fluid now than it was a week ago, surely.
The Santa Barbara Film Festival is still on-going, though Anne and I have wrapped up what coverage we'll do from there. Tributes were held for Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer and Martin Scorsese. We discuss.
"The Grey" opened this week, and with it, talk of both what its Oscar chances might have been in 2011 and whether it might hold on until the end of this year as a hopeful.
And finally, reader questions. We address queries regarding that phantom #10 film on the Best Picture list, the impact of Oscar season festivals and tributes and what to make of the electronic voting system the Academy is planning.
Have a listen to the new podcast below with the lovely Jennifer Lawrence leading the way. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. And as always, remember to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here.
"The Beginning of the End [Ladytron Remix]" courtesy of Nine Inch Nails and Interscope
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupStinny
February 3, 2012 at 1:52PM EST Reply to CommentPerhaps The Artist will fade a year from now, but the same could be said for Hugo. Maybe people will realise (more than before) that the Sascha Baron Cohen bits are awkwardly unfunny and that the pacing on the movie is really weird and uneven.
Kristopher Tapley I found the pacing weird and uneven from the start, though the Cohen stuff never bothered me. It's never been close to my top 10 but I'm POSITIVE it will stick with me longer than "The Artist."
February 3, 2012 at 1:56PM ESTLaura Stewart Kris, you were being too generous with The Artist's lifeline. 3 months tops!
February 3, 2012 at 5:57PM ESTJLPatt Funny, I don't remember you saying the same thing about the meager lasting value of "The King's Speech" last year. "The Artist" is a much better film, and it will last much longer.
February 3, 2012 at 7:10PM ESTKristopher Tapley The King's Speech is the better film. That's probably why I didn't say much about it.
February 3, 2012 at 8:17PM ESTJLPatt Well then this whole thing is silly because it's all so subjective. So maybe you (and all of us, probably) should abstain from big statements like "it won't have a lasting impression."
February 3, 2012 at 8:38PM ESTKristopher Tapley I'll make whatever statements I please, thanks. You feel free to do the same.
February 3, 2012 at 9:00PM ESTJan Fair enough, but why do you even bother saying that you try not to beat up on The Artist too much? But since you already said it, please try a bit harder next week.
February 4, 2012 at 4:35PM ESTKristopher Tapley Because I did. I tried.
February 4, 2012 at 9:52PM ESTJJ1
February 3, 2012 at 2:24PM EST Reply to CommentMy only issue with HUGO was that after the fantastic opening sequence, some of the "I want my notebook back" scenes and some of the early Isabelle-Hugo bonding scenes dragged, a bit. Otherwise, I was completely sold. And that last Act of 'Hugo' (what, the final 30 minutes or more) is the most magical section of any film I've experienced in a long time. I get smiley/goosebumply just thinking about how it made me feel.
As for The ARTIST, I highly enjoyed it. I've seen it several times now with different people who enjoyed it, as well. As a consensus film, I'm fine with it winning; mostly because one of the direct competitors (other than Hugo) is 'The Descendants', which I found very ineffective.
Laura Stewart "... mostly because one of the direct competitors (other than Hugo) is 'The Descendants', which I found very ineffective"
February 3, 2012 at 5:59PM ESTThis is so true. In my opinion, the only 2 films worthy of a win (other than Hugo) are Moneyball and Tree of Life and those are such long shots. I can't believe this is how the season has turned out.
Deena Jones' wig
February 3, 2012 at 3:29PM EST Reply to CommentReally? Harvey told Dujardin not to learn English? are you people serious? do you think learning a language is something you can do over night? I mean it is not like Dujardin is lounging around with all the time in the world. The guy is jet setting from place to place and doing non-stop press. What time does he have to learn flawless English ins less than 3 or 4 months? are you people serious? if learning a language was so easy Mr. Tapley, why don't you learn French in 3 months huh? maybe Spanish since it is so prevalent int he USA. Do it or eat your ridiculous words.
FYI, Dujardin's English has dramatically improved. Last year, the guy spoke almost zero English. Even go back to as close as Toronto Film Festival. Dujardin spoke very little English. I mean the guy could barely articulate independent clauses. Now, the guy is delivering full speeches at award shows and doing Q&A sessions during interviews.
It is unfortunate that you guys want to discredit Dujardin and skew his charming personality into a Harvey-crafted ploy. Shame on you!
Kristopher Tapley Dude, it was a joke. (Obviously.)
February 3, 2012 at 5:02PM ESTthekingbulletin
February 3, 2012 at 5:05PM EST Reply to Comment"The Grey" is amazing.
John-Paul
February 3, 2012 at 5:16PM EST Reply to CommentWhile "The Grey" was certainly better received than expected, I just don't think it will get any Oscar traction at all next season. The release date above all is what hurts it, and despite the kind of mild acclaim it's getting, it doesn't have enough truly passionate supporters to keep it in the discussion for another 10 months (when the awards start piling in).
Now, on this year's race, I recently upped my predicted "Artist" tally from 4 to 6. I definitely think it will be a close race up through Oscar night, but I'm going with Dujardin for Best Actor. If Clooney wins the BAFTA, I'll definitely go back to picking him, but I really doubt that will happen. I also decided to predict it for Original Screenplay, not just because of how rare it is for a Best Picture winner to not win for its screenplay, but also because I just have a feeling that Woody Allen's refusal to show up will hurt his chances of voters wanting to give him a THIRD screenwriting Oscar. So I think "The Artist" will get Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Original Score. I think "Hugo" will have a pretty good showing too, though, with 5 wins: Cinematography (sorry, Emmanuel), Art Direction, Costume Design (they'll take the lazy route again by making Art Direction and Costume Design go hand-in-hand), and both sound categories.
Kristopher Tapley As I mentioned, it would need a re-release if it were to have a prayer.
February 3, 2012 at 8:17PM ESTdaveylo I think that The Artist will win at most 4 awards and that is all it deserves. 3 would be more than enough. Spread the wealth , Academy.
February 4, 2012 at 12:37AM ESTLaura Stewart
February 3, 2012 at 5:51PM EST Reply to CommentAt this point, I don't really care who wins in the acting categories but I just hope The Tree of Life gets SOMETHING. Maybe Madonna's vote is just one of many for the film? ;) Brb dreaming.
Conor
February 3, 2012 at 6:25PM EST Reply to CommentHaha it sure doesn't sound like you're not trying to beat up on The Artist. It's dominating critically, and I've read from people who liked the movie even more a second time around. And I don't think "Consensus title" is a fair one for it. According to Metacritic, it's number one on more critics lists than any other movie but Tree of Life.
Also, totally agree on the Spencer thing. I feel guilty for not wanting her to win, but ughhh. What's the fuss all about..
JJ1 Yeah, Spencer seems even more like a sure thing than Viola. And yet, I think Viola nailed Aibileen. And while Spencer was fun - and added some nice heft to the dramatic sections - she's not my win; even preferring Chastain within the same category. Lovely woman, though.
February 3, 2012 at 9:12PM ESTJake G.!
February 3, 2012 at 6:54PM EST Reply to CommentThe Grey? Are you kidding me? Don't even waist your time talking about it having Oscar chances! We probably won't find one BP nominee till summer!
Kristopher Tapley Guessing you just read the subhead and didn't even bother listening.
February 3, 2012 at 8:19PM ESTJack
February 3, 2012 at 7:50PM EST Reply to CommentHaving rewatched The Artist and having liked it so much better than I had the first time last year, I'm pretty sure it won't fade in the public memory. Since The Tree of Life has no chance to win, there's really no other alternative that could be anything less embarrassing.
JJ1 My mom can be quite the harsh critic; calling a spade a spade with no problem. And she was completely charmed by The Artist.
February 3, 2012 at 9:13PM ESTdaveylo I was charmed by The Artist too. That doesn't mean it should be given a Best Picture Award.
February 4, 2012 at 12:39AM ESTRob
February 3, 2012 at 8:55PM EST Reply to CommentAre you a Narc fan, Kris?
Kristopher Tapley Big time.
February 3, 2012 at 9:03PM ESTRashad
February 3, 2012 at 10:31PM EST Reply to CommentThe Grey definitely shouldn't be forgotten, especially Neeson's performance. Better than anyone last year for sure. It's a powerful film; I was blown away.
And yeah, Carnahan did say they're planning a re-release for Neeson in the fall October or so.
Kristopher Tapley He spoke out of turn, actually. Nothing is officially planned.
February 4, 2012 at 3:16PM ESTHoustonRufus
February 3, 2012 at 10:37PM EST Reply to CommentI understand what Kris is saying, but I'm not as pessimistic about The Artist's legacy. I don't think it's going to be one of those wins like Hurt Locker or No Country where everybody pats themselves on the back and says, "We got that right!" But I don't think it's going to be one where people say, "What happened there?" I think it will be remembered fondly, but I don't think it's going to be a feather in the cap or an embarrassment. Part of that will be the absence of a nominee that is a default choice. It's on odd year. It's not like people will say, Oh, that movie definitely got robbed!
But like I said, I do understand where Kris is coming from. The movie does evaporate from memory somewhat after a while.
Rashad The Hurt Locker isn't as beloved as Oscar bloggers online think.
February 4, 2012 at 2:42AM ESTJJ1 Speaking in terms of BP (not quality, because I think The Hurt Locker is great), but THAT is a BP winner that no one outside of Oscar fans and onliners give a care about or even know that it won, or who was in it, or who directed it, etc.. If The Artist wins, it will be much more memorable. Maybe not in an enthusiastic way, but not in a bad way, either. People just don't know The Hurt Locker; it doesn't appeal/register.
February 4, 2012 at 10:00AM ESTKristopher Tapley I love The Hurt Locker. But I still think Avatar should have won Best Picture.
February 4, 2012 at 3:16PM ESTJLPatt Exactly (Rashad and JJ1). I pretty much put no value in IMDb ratings whatsoever, but it's very, very telling that "The Hurt Locker" has the lowest rating of all 10 Best Picture winners from the 00s. It's just not a particularly great movie, and more and more people are seeing that.
February 4, 2012 at 3:19PM ESTJLPatt Oh, it's shifted a bit since I last looked. The only one rated lower is "Chicago," certainly a bias against musicals.
February 4, 2012 at 3:22PM ESTKristopher Tapley "It's just not a particularly great movie, and more and more people are seeing that."
February 4, 2012 at 9:55PM ESTOh Jesus. You said yourself you don't take IMDb ratings seriously so why say something so unbelievably nonsensical as that? YOU think it's "not a particularly great movie." Don't project that onto others just because some mouth-breathers didn't get the bang-bang shoot 'em up they were expecting when they put it in their Netflix queue and then decided to take their impotent wrath out in the form of -- gasp! -- a low IMDb score.
At least JJ was measured. "It doesn't appeal/register" is such a more grown-up way of putting it, rather than "it's just not a great movie and people are finally catching up TO HOW RIGHT I TOTALLY AM."
Ugh.
JLPatt You know we all try to justify our dislike for certain movies by believing other people share our views. I'm sure you would/will say the same thing when "The Artist" wins.
February 4, 2012 at 10:51PM ESTKristopher Tapley How will I justify it by believing others share my views when "The Artist" will win because, um, they DON'T share my views? (Not that we were talking about me and "The Artist" at all here.)
February 4, 2012 at 11:42PM ESTJLPatt I mean when/if later down the road there's some sort of great backlash against the film you'll say "see, people are finally getting it." That kind of thing, which of course we all do when people react disappointedly to films we also don't care for.
February 5, 2012 at 12:34AM ESTKristopher Tapley I won't look to IMDb ratings for that backlash, surely.
February 5, 2012 at 1:37PM ESTDylanS I still think it was a bit ridiculous wrapping up the Best Director race of Bigelow v. Cameron so definitely in favor of Bigelow. I have no qualms with her direction and I admire that she didn't play to the usual sensibilities associated with women directors, but it's a standard issue war picture and Avatar was a hugely progressive cinematic achievement that only Cameron could have done. People calling it for Bigelow but playing Avatar v. Hurt Locker BP as a genuine race meant that Hurt Locker was going to run away with it.
February 6, 2012 at 1:43PM ESTcrossie
February 4, 2012 at 12:39AM EST Reply to CommentWhile we're all still talking about 'The Grey,' thank Roth Cornet so much for putting up the original article on the blog; I went to movie because of that post, and really enjoyed it.
HoustonRufus
February 4, 2012 at 1:35AM EST Reply to CommentJust watched Jean Dujardin on Leno. One of the few reasons I'd ever watch Leno. Anyway, he is playing all us Americans like fools. ha! Not in terms of language. He's not faking his English skills or lack thereof. But he clearly knows Americans love to hear how great others think we are. He's a total charmer. He's got more charm than Uggie. And that's saying alot. Honestly, at this rate, I'd be shocked if he didn't win the oscar.
eithan
February 4, 2012 at 8:09AM EST Reply to CommentLet's play a speculation game:
Taking into consideration that The Artist doesn't really have a competition:
Had Midnight in Paris would have been released in October (rather than in May), do you think it could have been a strong contender for Best Film ?
Kristopher Tapley No. I think it's as strong as it could have been.
February 4, 2012 at 3:17PM ESTMartini
February 4, 2012 at 12:56PM EST Reply to CommentAnne...you should definitely see Nothing but the Truth...great film...and great unsung supportng performances by Matt Dillon, Alan Alda, and Vera Farmiga.
Andrej
February 4, 2012 at 3:22PM EST Reply to CommentRegarding my question about the newly proposed electronic voting system, yeah, we gotta see it to believe it, but if it happens, I can see the edgier, darker and/or less conventional films getting a considerable bump because of it. The foreign language category could really show its teeth out of it.
Looking forward to your next podcast! I've barely seen Pina and A Separation, so it'll be interesting to hear your thougths on the rest.
Andrej Oh, and 'If a Tree Falls', too. Surprisingly good.
February 4, 2012 at 3:33PM ESTChris138 If a Tree Falls was really good. I was surprised how much I got into it. Also worthy of mention is Hell and Back Again, which is one of the most unsettling documentaries I've seen.
February 4, 2012 at 4:51PM ESTKristopher Tapley All of the movies -- well, IMO, save Pina -- in that race are compelling docs. It'll be interesting to see what wins. At the moment, I'm leaning toward Wenders.
February 4, 2012 at 9:56PM ESTTom
February 4, 2012 at 4:19PM EST Reply to CommentHugo isn't an amazing film, but at least it is good. That is more than I can say about The Artist or The Descendants. I honestly would prefer most of the BP nominees to The Artist or The Descendants.
It probably won't happen, but maybe the Academy surprise us. There is always next year though.
JuanL
February 4, 2012 at 5:28PM EST Reply to CommentIt seems like the movies to see so far of 2012 include Haywire, Chronicle, The Grey, and maybe The Women in Black. For limited releases the must sees are likely Miss Bala, Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, and Kill List
Stefan
February 4, 2012 at 6:44PM EST Reply to CommentI wasn't sure where else to post this, but you can watch the Annie Awards tonight on their official website, where it will be live-streamed.
Just thought I'd let you know.
Chris138
February 4, 2012 at 11:03PM EST Reply to CommentThe Grey was a great start for what is hopefully a terrific year for movies. It also had one of the most frighteningly realistic plane crashes I've seen in a movie. The only other movie I can think of that depicted that kind of intensity would be United 93. God I hope they don't show that movie on airlines...
TJ Wells
February 5, 2012 at 12:30PM EST Reply to CommentMan. The comments here have made for some very entertaining reading this morning.
JJ1 This is true
February 5, 2012 at 4:47PM EST