Oscar Talk: Ep. 75 -- Critics' picks so far, 'War Horse' box office, PGA/WGA preview, boiling down Best Actress and more
Also: Would Jessica Chastain be riding such a high without a large body of work this year?
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Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you're new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar's stage and we're here to address it all as it unfolds.
We took a week off around Christmas to refocus and leave all this madness behind for a moment, but we're back on the case today ready to chew on the few morsels left in the year to discuss. The clock is ticking on 2011, so let's see what's on the docket today...
The film critics have been dishing out year-end kudos and top 10 lists, making for an interesting up and down and jockeying for position as the most lauded film of the year. Contenders like "The Tree of Life," "The Descendants," "The Artist" and "Drive" are bubbling up to the top.
The PGA and WGA will be the next guilds to speak up next week. We briefly discuss what we might expect there and what it means at this point in the race.
One film that has won the late-breaking award this year is Steven Spielberg's "War Horse," which came on strong at the box office around the holiday and could keep it rolling this weekend. (UPDATE: Looking at the Friday numbers, it actually appears to have leveled out. Interesting.)
Some films seem to have missed the beat, namely "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" and "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close." Though the book is by no means closed on either hopeful, we talk about how they're faring amid the competition as they open at the end of the year.
We do a little bit of category focusing by examining the Best Actress race, which, as far as we're concerned, appears to be locked in.
And finally, reader questions! We address queries ranging from how Jessica Chastain might be perceived if she didn't have a big body of work this year and what contenders could be surprising "out of the blue" nominees next month.
Have a listen to the new podcast below with The Chromatics leading the way. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. And as always, remember to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here.
"Tick of the Clock" courtesy of The Chromatics and Italians Do It Better.
"Auld Lang Syne" courtesy of Prince.
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December 31, 2011 at 1:21PM EST Reply to CommentWelcome back. Like you Chris I am also missing the confident in Fassbender. It is a compelling performance, but missing the SAG is really telling (there has been a lot of SAG screenings). Given the nature of his films (NC-17, off putting, challenging, divisive and essential a small visual art film with a very different type of narrative). Not much of a character arc either and Fassbender himself hasn't been nominate before. In other words, not a performance that would would get nomination traditionally. I think he is someone who could have received SAG, GG and BAFTA and still miss. Not that I don't think it's not a good performance, but I am a little puzzled about the confidence of this particular nomination.
Even though Leo's movie were not well reviewed, I think he is (just a bit) safer than Fassbender.
Kristopher Tapley I think there's a profound character arc, actually.
December 31, 2011 at 1:39PM ESTDylanS That SAG snub for him was very surprising and very telling. It's such an artsy movie, and while he's a rising star, he's no Pitt, Clooney or DiCaprio. I think he's in trouble.
January 1, 2012 at 3:09PM ESTJJ1
December 31, 2011 at 1:52PM EST Reply to CommentI'm not so sure you guys are as hip to what's happening at the box office as you think. Dragon Tattoo has had a bit of a bounce and is not doing as poorly as 8-9 days ago. And War Horse's first 3-day wow has really evend off and is not doing as well as Tattoo and some others. That said, War Horse is still a good 400-500 screen less than it's rivals. And I don't even see War Horse making more than, say, 80 million, unless there's wind in the sails or it gets big noms/wins coming up. I think Tattoo and War Horse will finish with similar domestic totals. I may very well be wrong. But the numbers don't lie right now.
Brock Landers Spot on. War Horse has the benefit that it will be up for more awards, but it will probably finish with the same amount as Dragon Tattoo.
December 31, 2011 at 1:59PM ESTKristopher Tapley I admit I didn't look at the numbers yesterday when we spoke and was probably running off four-day-old considerations.
December 31, 2011 at 2:38PM ESTJJ1 I'm actually a quite a bit surprised at the 'War Horse' drop because I thought I read that it had an A- CinemaScore and it's such a Holiday movie, Spielberg, etc.. There's got to be some reason why it's not catching fire (yet?) other than that it's a very crowded movie season.
December 31, 2011 at 2:42PM ESTJJ1 And like I said, it's in 400-500 less theaters than others, and probably in less screens (like Dragon Tattoo, it's a long movie). But, I don't know ... still seems a little strange to me.
December 31, 2011 at 2:43PM ESTRashad Dragon Tattoo still cost more to make.
December 31, 2011 at 4:06PM EST
December 31, 2011 at 4:30PM ESTThe Help - $168,860,700
Moneyball - $74,391,437
Midnight in Paris - $56,322,946
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - $56,011,000
Hugo- $49,315,000
War Horse - $39,329,043
The Descendants - $39,324,646
Drive - $34,808,529
Tree of Life - $13,303,319
The Artist - $4,137,000
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - $239,000
Toy Story 3 - $415,004,880
Inception - $292,568,851
The Social Network - $93,222,026
True Grit - $86,670,382
Black Swan - $47,807,791
The Fighter - $46,388,853
The King's Speech - $22,932,401
The Kids Are All Right - $20,811,365
127 Hours - $10,434,435
Winter's Bone - $6,245,508
Inception and Toy Story 3 aside, we still had True Grit, Black Swan, and The Fighter breaking out, with The King's Speech lying in wait.
m1 The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, and Winter's Bone only made that much? What a shame. I loved all of those.
December 31, 2011 at 6:41PM ESTLaura Stewart Understandable 127 Hours and especially Winter's Bone only made that much during the holidays. No one wants to see someone chop off their arm or have their teeth kicked in on NYE :)
December 31, 2011 at 8:11PM EST
January 1, 2012 at 7:48AM ESTI agree that 127 Hours deserved more.
The box office story of War Horse continues to evolve. Apparently War Horse INCREASED yesterday which if true is pretty unheard of. Definitely shows that the 60 and over crowd is coming out in support. "What are you doin' New Year's Eve? Watching War Horse!"
Rashad I will be going again this week too!
January 1, 2012 at 11:47PM ESTBrock Landers
December 31, 2011 at 1:56PM EST Reply to CommentWar Horse opened well, but has been slacking ever since. It only made $4.7 million yesterday, which puts it at #6. Not good.
Brock Landers Not terrible either, but it's not doing as well as its initial numbers indicated.
December 31, 2011 at 2:13PM ESTKristopher Tapley I literally just saw it's Friday total this morning and though, "Uh-oh. That changes some of my points from the podcast."
December 31, 2011 at 2:39PM ESTJMC Kris, I think you are overstating your fear of its numbers. Every film this holiday season saw a peak on its opening day or two (except We Bought a Zoo, which started as a dud and is becoming a small hit, not surprising as its a crowd pleaser). War Horse's initial gloss looked big on Christmas day as the only real release (not including The Darkest Hour).
December 31, 2011 at 7:19PM ESTThat said, look at Friday's numbers. War Horse had one of the biggest upticks on Friday from Thursday, evening Mission Impossible's rise and The Descendants. In other words, War Horse is playing more like a film for adults and also a film that is playing stronger on weekends then weekdays, see 2h 27m running length. In other words, I'd expect its Saturday and Sunday to be pretty good, not to mention some great legs based on its Cinemascore. A few weeks from now, I think you'll seeing it doing just fine. With a few nominations, I think it could still do $100m, at worst, its heading for $70m plus.
JMC I meant to say, each started with an initial peak (some were underwhelming), but then everything has bounced back a few days later after the initial rush of fans. Hence, I meant War Horse seems to be bouncing back just fine, with a 29% jump on Friday over Thursday, one of the highest bumps out there.
December 31, 2011 at 7:21PM ESTKristopher Tapley I don't cop to being box office savvy, that's for sure.
December 31, 2011 at 7:31PM ESTMattyL
December 31, 2011 at 2:19PM EST Reply to CommentGreat podcast as usual.
I'm going got go out on a limb and suggest Hugo isn't as much of a lock as people claim it to be. The snub at SAG suggests that actors, the largest group at AMPAS, aren't falling over the film the way costume designers or cinematographers are. Secondly, it has a child protagonist - something the Academy has always been cool towards. I deem it safe in a number of tech awards, but I truly don't think it is a "lock" as InContention, Sasha, Nathaniel and others deem.
JJ1 I know that this is touched upon already, but just how important is it when SAG noms come out in mid December (meaning SAG voters likely saw a crux of important films from October to early December) -- to when most people in the actor's branch may not be getting around to alot of differenr films until after the SAG nom deadline had already passed. I know Anne mentioned it's a more broad association than the Academy. That's cool. I get it. But is it actually moreso that the "heat" was on certain films (DiCaprio, Armie Hammer, Bichir, etc) THEN, and then in the next few weeks (mid, late December thru Feb), more films will have been seen as a whole (Hugo, War Horse, Iron Lady, Extremely Loud, Flowers of War, etc etc) and the actor's branch may say 'I don't know why we/they nommed so and so last month. I've now seen movie A or performance B and am definitely voting for THAT now'. etc. Anyone know what I mean?
December 31, 2011 at 2:35PM ESTJJ1 That whole comment of mine comes across as self-answering, but I'm just curious if that's how you all think it goes, as well. :)
December 31, 2011 at 2:36PM ESTKristopher Tapley No, it just suggests there wasn't an actor they really wanted to pick out of the ensemble. I think people read too many generalizations into SAG snubs sometimes. "Uh-oh, the actors don't like it." Not really.
December 31, 2011 at 2:40PM ESTKristopher Tapley JJ: Yes, it's painfully obvious from this year's SAG nods hat the committee had earlier films on the mind. Bichir's film, for instance, was the first screener to go out, and everyone got a copy.
December 31, 2011 at 2:41PM ESTJJ1 K, cool :)
December 31, 2011 at 2:44PM ESTDylanS Kris' comment above is precisely the reason why I think actors like Oldman and Theron, who's films were just starting to play for american audiences, didn't make SAG but will fare better with Oscars.
January 1, 2012 at 3:11PM ESTPaul Outlaw
December 31, 2011 at 3:14PM EST Reply to CommentI thought I was the only one pulling for Forster in The Descendants. Nice to hear you and Anne share my view, Kris.
On the other hand, if DiCaprio gets in over Oldman *and* Fassbender...
Laura Stewart I'm convinced this year will feature some of the most "wtf where they thinking" nominations.
December 31, 2011 at 8:25PM ESTDylanS It's going to be a party of actors they like in forgettable performances in even more forgettable films. If the best actress category pans out as Kris and Anne suggest it will, I think it's going to be a massive embarrassment. so many great, high-exposure leading actress performances and that's the slate they end up with. All I can say is thank god for Tilda Swinton.
January 1, 2012 at 3:14PM ESTJJ1 While I agree, isn't this best performance by an actor/actress in a film? I think DiCaprio gives one of the best performances of the year, and it's in a film with a far lesser quality overall. I also think Michelle Williams is excellent and is quite a bit better than the film she's in. I could say that for most contender most years. I don't look at past winners or nominees and think: oooooh, yeah, that movie they were in .... eek. I think about the performance. But maybe that's just me.
January 2, 2012 at 10:32AM ESTLaura Stewart You're absolutely right JJ1 and I'm speaking to that point. Meryl Streep does not give the kind of performance worth nominating in my opinion. Neither does Glenn Close (but you all know my thoughts on that). Leo DiCaprio is good in J. Edgar but not Oscar-worthy... it's an inconsistent and at times unconvincing performance. In my opinion, his work in Shutter Island and Catch Me If You Can (and maybe Revolutionary Road if we're feeling sentimental) were two of the highlights of his career. He was snubbed for those two and instead is being rewarded for a film AND a performance I just can't get on board with. I haven't written it off like most critics (like I said, I think it's good... not fantastic, not a career-best), but I just don't see an Oscar-worthy performance by anyone in that cast. I agree with you regarding Williams' who I think was snubbed last year for Blue Valentine (she was my pick to win... long shot but truly worthy) and does an exceedingly expressive job playing Marilyn Monroe. I think Swinton and Davis deliver and they were always on my top 5. My point is, 2-3 of the years best performances will be overlooked (Theron, Dunst, Shannon, Harrelson), all of which are challenging and risky in ways that an organization like the Academy should be willing to recognize. After all, isn't that the point of all of this? Or at least I thought so. As for the performance vs. movie-- it's tough to entirely separate the two when a performance doesn't rise above a crappy movie (see: Albert Nobbs) or in the case of The Iron Lady just adds to the unintentional comedy (see: Meryl Streep). Viola Davis and Williams' are good cases of strong performances that rise above fluffy material and tepid direction. And I 10000000% agree with DylanS statement- "It's going to be a party of actors they like in forgettable performances in even more forgettable films."
January 2, 2012 at 4:04PM ESTLaura Stewart
December 31, 2011 at 3:20PM EST Reply to CommentHappy 75th anniversary!
So, now you think Mara is in before Theron? NOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Doesn't Best Actress runner-up for National Board of Review, BFCA nom, GG nom, a few critic circle nominations, Palm Springs award, and a Gotham tribute keep her in contention above Mara?
Trex Yeah, I was a little shocked to hear Kris say Mara might be a spoiler. I don't think the Academy will pass up a chance to nominate a very well respected and relatively young (compared to the other assumed nominees minus Williams') actress, who also happens to give the most impressive performance of the year. Holding out hope for Theron to get that 5th slot. Mara has 2 more films where she gets to play the same character, don't you think she will get her nomination in due time if it's truly deserved?
December 31, 2011 at 3:25PM ESTLaura Stewart I hope so, Trex. Pretty strategic to get Mara on the cover of EW right when Academy voters' get their ballots. Hopefully none of them read EW ;) Ha.
December 31, 2011 at 3:31PM ESTKristopher Tapley Academy members are not responding to "Young Adult" as I had hoped they would. But maybe a mad dash in these next two weeks can change that.
December 31, 2011 at 3:35PM ESTJJ1 I was thinking that Mara's low profile (what? Elm Street and 7 minutes in TSN) along with her quiet, some would say polarizing interviews of late might prevent her from adoration; stellar performance or not.
December 31, 2011 at 3:42PM ESTKristopher Tapley The discovery angle can be milked.
December 31, 2011 at 4:00PM ESTRegardless, I think it's moot. I expect the SAG five. If something changes, I'd be surprised.
Laura Stewart Well, this sucks.
December 31, 2011 at 5:47PM ESTm1 Laura, you'll be happy to know that I personally think that Theron still has a shot. I have her in the #5 spot on my predictions, edging out Glenn Close. I think there is still some goodwill left over from Monster for her to guarantee at least a nomination.
December 31, 2011 at 6:43PM ESTMykill My prayers are not strong enough Laura! :^( I should've sacrificed a cow as well to get Theron in the mix... I just can't believe everything is going to fall into place just like that (the SAG five being the ones nominated.) That is such a bummer since that will mean that only one likely-nominated actress (Tilda Swinton) is in a movie that I actually like! Such a frustrating experience after last year being spoiled with such a terrific group of nominees in really good films.
December 31, 2011 at 6:47PM ESTLaura Stewart I'm with you guys... I'm still crossing my fingers for Theron to be nominated. I can't believe this film will go by with zero recognition from the Academy. I think Diablo Cody is out at this point, which is a shame. Patton Oswalt is too much of a dark-horse to crack into the top 5 Supporting Actors, unless Jonah Hill fades. Theron has to be the one. I even re-watched Albert Nobbs with my family last week, hoping I would catch something that SAG and the HFPA saw in nominating Glenn Close. My verdict: It's still a horrible film and the sole purpose of it is to garner Close a nomination which just reeks of desperation. I'm truly baffled.
December 31, 2011 at 8:08PM ESTWill this be the only year (if the nominations play out in similar fashion to the SAG noms) where so many good performances in bad films have been nominated? I'm looking at you Meryl Streep, Leo DiCaprio, Glenn Close, and Viola Davis.
Aden It boils down to who is more visible in these next few weeks before voters send their ballots in. Theron has to be everywhere and essentially sell herself to voters. She has a lot of respect in the industry, I'm sure, but unless your name is Meryl Streep you aren't going to be nominated without aggressively campaigning. Maybe she should pull a Bardem and have a highly influential Academy voter host a screening of the movie and then said person is quoted in every publication and website from here to China. Worked for Bardem, could work for Theron.
December 31, 2011 at 8:22PM ESTI too have Theron in my top 5, Laura. Lets hope for the best.
JJ1 Laua, you had me til you said Viola Davis. I think (after severla viewings, now) that 'The Help' is a very good, involving motion picture.
December 31, 2011 at 9:52PM ESTAnd Theron will most likely remain in my Top 5, as well. :)
Laura Stewart I think The Help is a good movie- not particularly strong but not horrible- so perhaps you are right, it doesn't belong in the same category as Albert Nobbs and The Iron Lady. BUT the part that irritates me is the random love story on the side between Skeeter and the dude played by Mike Vogel. So, it really has nothing to do with Davis' narrative within the film but that part annoyed me to the point where it overshadowed any of the great moments the film may have had. I think it's in good company with My Week with Marilyn-- fluffy, harmless film that doesn't really dig too deep but still manages to extract some pretty great performances.
December 31, 2011 at 11:56PM ESTJJ1 Fair enough, Laura :)
January 1, 2012 at 10:12AM ESTDylanS Kris: Do the embarrassing reviews of Albert Nobbs mean anything? I know critics support isn't everything, but with that kind of film, that seems difficult to overcome.
January 1, 2012 at 3:17PM ESTKristopher Tapley Actors will respect Close's commitment to the role and her work in the film. As they did with SAG. That's still my bet.
January 1, 2012 at 7:43PM ESTLaura Stewart How many voteres do you think actually saw/will see Albert Nobbs? My guess is that they are likely voting based off of what has been said about Close's commitment to the work-- EVERY mention of this film has included a blurb about it being a passion project and taking x number of years to bring it to the screen.
January 2, 2012 at 4:17PM ESTRashad
December 31, 2011 at 7:28PM EST Reply to CommentKris: If War Horse won the Oscar, what would you think?
Kristopher Tapley "Makes sense. Now, on to finish planning my wedding."
December 31, 2011 at 7:32PM ESTDalurae
January 1, 2012 at 12:07AM EST Reply to CommentI guess deep down I know TTSS's chances are extremely slim but...Oh my god I'm tearing up. lol Oh well. C'mon, BAFTA, show some love for TTSS.
daveylo
January 1, 2012 at 12:17AM EST Reply to CommentThough I am a fan of The Descendants very few of my friends who are movie buffs were crazy about the movie. They mentioned to me they didn't like the screenplay. Does the Academy really like the film? I dread a War Horse upsurge. Not do I want to see Spielberg get a third Oscar. Not sure why Ben Kingsley is being ignored this year. He's giving an exemplary supporting actor performance in Hugo.
daveylo
January 1, 2012 at 12:20AM EST Reply to CommentDid anyone see Glenn Close singing on the Kennedy Honors special this past week? She was terrible, after that performance maybe some Oscar voters will think twice about nominating her. I'm kidding but she was really bad singing Losing My Mind by Sondheim.
Hollywood I read that she was sooo bad in the live version that they had to retape her. We saw the better version. Can you imagine how bad it must have been?
January 5, 2012 at 6:42PM ESTloyal_mehnert
January 1, 2012 at 10:02AM EST Reply to CommentThanks for answering my question on how you keep your sanity. Anne had a good point of view as well, "do other stuff." Unless you work for the AMPAS or are nominated, Oscars really shouldn't be that serious.
As for The Dark Knight Rises prologue reaction, I don't think there's much to worry about (and I couldn't understand Bane either). And I definitely don't think Nolan has a 1941 in him. Certain masterful directors working today are above that type of mistake, like Quentin Tarantino, PT Anderson, and Nolan. As much as I love Spielberg, he chooses his film projects almost on a whim, War Horse is a perfect example. Not a horrible thing mind you but it can lead to certain quality control issues. Nolan and the other directors I mentioned put far too much time and thought into which films they decide to direct. And it's no coincidence that QT, PTA, and Nolan are all writer/directors as well. That adds another layer of quality control.
Whatever Nolan chooses to direct post Batman, rest assured it won't be a 1941.
DylanS I think "Inception" would have been the most likely place for him to go the route of 1941, so I suspect we have nothing to worry about.
January 1, 2012 at 3:19PM ESTDarkLayers I think you make a reasonable case against 1941, but I think it's possible for Nolan to pull what Rami did to Spider Man 3. With Catwoman AND Bane, maybe it'll be too much.
January 2, 2012 at 4:56AM ESTI sincerely hope Bane doesn't sound like he did in the prologue. If he sounded like he did in the trailer for the whole film, that would be an acceptable outcome for this viewer. If Bane sounds like that several times, it would be a drag on the film.
I'm really rooting for it to be enjoyable and do well, but too many villains, storylines, and other other the top flaws could make it a mediocre or even bad movie. Even good filmmakers have some pretty bad moments, but hopefully TDKR won't be one for Nolan!
red_georges
January 1, 2012 at 4:42PM EST Reply to CommentAs for the Sundance question, there won't really be any actors out there that will be expecting a nomination. Elizabeth Olsen has a couple movie, but this isn't a just world, and she has almost no shot at a nomination at this point. She has to be sitting no higher than 8 or 9 right now.
Kristopher Tapley Actually turns out Octavia Spencer will have something there.
January 1, 2012 at 7:45PM ESTEvan
January 2, 2012 at 3:03AM EST Reply to CommentKris, which critics' list amalgamator were you talking about? Here's the only one I know about. I like it because it archives prior years' lists.
http://criticstop10.com/
Anne on the BP winner: "It's always the movie that touches people the most."
-Wouldn't that be Shame, then? ;-)
And finally, one last thought, it would seem with Meryl, Tilda, and Glenn's movies all coming out (or going wider) in the next month, that the Actress category might be the most likely to experience a shake-up.
DarkLayers I also recall that Metacritic in this feature:
January 2, 2012 at 3:58AM ESThttp://www.metacritic.com/feature/movie-critic-best-of-2011-top-ten-lists
I agree that people often lament making end of the year lists, but there is something interesting going on this year.
http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critic-top-ten-lists