Oscar Talk: Ep. 72 -- Gothams, Indie Spirits, NYFCC, NBR and 'We Bought a Zoo'
Also: The fate of Leonaro DiCaprio and the 'Harry Potter' FYC splurge
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Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you're new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar's stage and we're here to address it all as it unfolds.
It's been a busy, busy week on the awards circuit, and it was a busy Tuesday in particular. Awards shows, screenings, nominations announcements and the first critics awards of the season were all thrown into the mix. Let's see what's on the docket today...
The Gotham Awards happened Sunday night and the Independent Spirit Award nominees were announced Tuesday. We talk a bit about how the indie field played out there.
Also dropping Tuesday was the New York Film Critics Circle's announcement of year-end superlatives. We chew on a few of those as well.
Cameron Crowe's "We Bought a Zoo" sneaked int heaters across the country last weekend and we both happened to catch screenings. We give our takes on the film, which doesn't seem primed to be an Oscar contender, but is nevertheless a heartfelt endeavor.
Is anything in trouble? Anne seems to think "Midnight in Paris" is. I talk a bit about a potential resurgence for "The Ides of March." We kind of just mull over where we are in the season after these announcements.
And finally, reader questions. We answer queries regarding the fate of Leonardo DiCaprio this season, the security of "The Help" and the FYC battle being waged on behalf of "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2."
Have a listen to the new podcast below with a little Crowe-inspired Dylan leading the way. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. And as always, remember to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here.
"Buckets of Rain" courtesy of Bob Dylan and Columbia Records.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
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Best Adapted Screenplay
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Best Film Editing
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Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
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Best Animated Feature Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupEvan
December 2, 2011 at 1:02PM EST Reply to CommentUh... aren't you predicting Woody in directing? Or is that Guy pushing Woody Allen?
I'd say Scorsese has a better shot.
Kristopher Tapley That's Guy. If you click on the image associated with each category, it'll take you to the page for that category and you'll see who's responsible for what. The sidebar predictions are no longer just my own.
December 2, 2011 at 5:46PM ESTCoffeysr
December 2, 2011 at 1:12PM EST Reply to Commentwill you guys have seen Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud by next week's show?
Kristopher Tapley Yes.
December 2, 2011 at 5:46PM ESTHoustonRufus Vedy, vedy interesting. Can't wait for next week's podcast then.
December 2, 2011 at 5:52PM ESTDrew
December 2, 2011 at 1:25PM EST Reply to CommentHave not listened to Hunger Strike in forever. Good choice.
I suppose if Dragon Tattoo delivers it could be the chillier slot-filler. Doesn't seem like it's one to tug at the heart strings.
DylanS I think it could come in and surprise everyone for the win, like "The Departed" in 2006. Just like in that year, everything so far seems to be facing backlash and underwhelming, to a certain extent.
December 2, 2011 at 3:08PM ESTAlex in Movieland
December 2, 2011 at 1:36PM EST Reply to CommentYou never really thought Woody Allen as a Best Director nominee? :) then what's he doing on the predictions column on the right? :D
anyway, the director category is quite confusing. I still don't think like predicting Scorsese
Kristopher Tapley See my comment above.
December 2, 2011 at 5:47PM ESTEvan
December 2, 2011 at 1:36PM EST Reply to CommentOne last comment: you mentioned the predominance of light-hearted or emotional films and the lack of "brainy" films in the BP conversation. I agree that there is a surprising number of dramedies and a dearth of legit, serious dramas in the BP list right now. Like you say, I wouldn't be surprised if TTSS or IoM pop in. (I'm expecting EL&IC to get a nomination because, though emotional, it will be very dramatic.)
However, I think the matter is complicated by the fact that some of the dramedies in the picture are pretty intellectual. Midnight in Paris is for lovers of literature and art. The Artist is light-hearted but its silent nature helps it be more likely to appeal to intellectual types than the average trifle. Alexander Payne is a thinking man's comedic writer.
This is why, as unusual as the BP lineup you're predicting is relative to other Oscar BP lists, I think it's entirely plausible.
Great podcast. Looking forward to next week's Top Tens!
Roy
December 2, 2011 at 1:48PM EST Reply to CommentCrash wasn't anywhere close to being in the 50s on RT. It got a 76 with a 7.1/10 average. Bloggers need to stop exaggerating how bad the reviews for that film were. It was on par with plenty of other modern Best Picture winners.
1985: Out of Africa: 63%, 6.2 avg
1989: Driving Miss Daisy: 79%, 7/10 avg
1994: Forrest Gump: 71%, 7/10 avg
1995: Braveheart: 79%, 7/10 avg
1990: Dances With Wolves: 78%, 7.2/10 avg
2000: Gladiator: 78%, 7/10 avg
2001: A Beautiful Mind: 78%, 7/10 avg
I don't have an issue with reflection, but don't make up numbers to justify your opinions.
Dean This annoys me too. Plus it had absolute raves from Ebert, Denby, Schwarzbaum and others. Don't be lazy like that.
December 2, 2011 at 2:04PM ESTJJ1 Yeah. I loved Crash and Brokeback. I think the 'how did Brokeback lose!!??' sentiment clouds that Crash really did have a lot of critical support, but huge detractors, too. I also think that a lot of the public found Crash more accessible.
December 2, 2011 at 2:25PM ESTConrado I was going to point out the exact same thing.
December 2, 2011 at 2:38PM ESTBut I do think Leo has a chance to get nominated just like Cate Blanchett managed to be nominated for Elizabeth: The Golden Age (with a 35% in Rotten Tomatoes!) He just needs to get the right traction at the SAGs and the Globes
Andrej Crash score's aside, I wouldn't take so seriously any score given to a film from before 1999 - the year RT was launched. By mixing then-current reviews with looking-back articles, they're prone to be offset by nostalgia or overreaction, especially since as you go back in time, you'll find less film reviews to properly weight on collectively.
December 2, 2011 at 2:38PM ESTSquasher88 Ughh, that annoyed me too! Crash was definitely not 50%, Anne really pulled that out of thin air. There was no way it was gonna win Best Pic if it was that low. That film definitely had its fans. I wish people would stop bashing that film, it's really not that bad.
December 2, 2011 at 3:29PM ESTKristopher Tapley I'm a Crash fan. Anne was just try to make a valid point that it was one of the lesser films, critically speaking, to win Best Picture. No need to vilify her or act like she's bending numbers to make her point, because she doesn't have to bend them far, after all.
December 2, 2011 at 5:48PM ESTJLPatt She was bending numbers, though. 50% is quite a different thing than 76%.
December 2, 2011 at 11:17PM ESTDanny Oops, the above comment wasn't intended for this section... sorry.
December 2, 2011 at 11:58PM ESTKristopher Tapley I actually recall Crash being in the 60s at the time. 66, to be exact.
December 3, 2011 at 4:48AM ESTAndrej
December 2, 2011 at 2:06PM EST Reply to CommentIt would've been kickass if Anne had actually yelled at the gardeners "HEY, SHUT THE FUCK UP" in the beginning of the podcast.
Kidding aside, I've always been wondering which 'dark and/or brainy' film could get in for BP. In the case of 'Ides' not going anywhere with the Academy, which ones would be left? 'Tinker, Tailor's looking like it's going to be all about Oldman, while 'Dragon Tattoo' all about Rooney (maybe). What about Drive, then? Brooks and Refn have been awarded already, its screenplay looks like a viable candidate, and if they throw in some deservedly props to its editing and cinematography, I'd say it's in.
Besides, they'll need to offset the niceness of its BP slate somehow. To varying degrees, they're all feelgood nice films! Nothing wrong with that, but still...
Great podcast, guys! :)
DylanS I think it's "Tinker, Tailor", cause it has british crossover potential, not to mention it has across the board raves, whereas "Drive" is divisive.
December 2, 2011 at 6:34PM ESTAndrej About the british bloc, I'm thinking they'll lean closer to The Artist. It's french, sure, but to them it's just across the channel, and if their supposed flagship movie is fading into the lower tiers, they might as well go for the next best euro-thing. Especially if it's already a strong frontrunner for BP...
December 2, 2011 at 7:26PM EST... unless 'Tinker' pulls a Kate Winslet and it becomes THE movie to finally award Gary Oldman. But can it steal the thunder away from Dujardin, Clooney, Pitt, or at least Fassbender, who's gone from "no way in hell" to "possible"; at this point? I'm doubting it.
And while essentially Drive's been raved too, I get what you mean, but divisiveness isn't precisely a bad thing, I think. It keeps a movie topical for a longer time.
cinephile
December 2, 2011 at 2:21PM EST Reply to CommentWhy do you say that Midnight in Paris did well at the Spirit Awards? Supporting actor and cinematography, that's all it got nominated for. I felt that it was snubbed in feature and screenplay at least...
Kristopher Tapley "Had a presence" would have been a better comment. I didn't have the nominations in front of me and couldn't really remember. Anyway...
December 2, 2011 at 5:49PM ESTJJ1
December 2, 2011 at 2:31PM EST Reply to CommentWhile I would agree with Anne's sentiment of Tree of Life winning Cinematography winning both on merit and on 'well, we gotta give Tree of Life something' sentiment ...... I would have thought the same of True Grit last year. Still stunned by it's loss; not because of the merit, but because of the 'let's give the film due' and 'Deakins needs a win' thought process. Very unpredictable, at times - that Academy.
Will
December 2, 2011 at 2:41PM EST Reply to CommentThe fact that Emmanuel Lubezki lost cinematography in 2006 when he was nominated for Children of Men should tell you all you need to know about the Academy's history of not giving the man Oscars that he obviously deserves.
Dan Eh- not quite sure that's true. I think Oscar voters go for "pretty" fairly often so TToL might be more in their wheelhouse than CoM, no matter how deserving the latter may have been.
December 2, 2011 at 3:19PM ESTDylanS
December 2, 2011 at 3:23PM EST Reply to CommentI already said this in my reader question, but I think "Moneyball" fits the bill for a more weighty best picture nominee. It's not chilly, but it certainly works on a more cerebral level than "The Help", "Midnight in Paris" and "The Artist".
Kristopher Tapley But it's also built on its fair share of sentiment.
December 2, 2011 at 5:50PM ESTDylanS I agree, but comparatively, I think it has weightier qualities lacking in the other potential BP nominees right now. I'm just surprised that people can be so high on the script and Pitt without also giving it much consideration for Director and Picture, which quite frankly it deserves, and I think you would agree.
December 2, 2011 at 6:29PM ESTDooby
December 2, 2011 at 3:25PM EST Reply to CommentIf Drive continues to do well, I think it becomes a serious contender for adapted screenplay and I'm interested how it might do with techs.
It has now been mentioned at NBR, NYFCC, Indie Spirts and even Satellites. It's doing wel.
David A.
December 2, 2011 at 4:20PM EST Reply to CommentIdes of March and the Decedents are two completely different films. Drive and Ides of March are two completely different films. The idea of an actor vote splitting himself in the acting category is arguable at best. And vote splitting between two films starring the same actor doesn't really make sense.
JJ1
December 2, 2011 at 4:38PM EST Reply to CommentWith last year's voting procedures, I think the 10 would have been:
War Horse, The Artist, Descendants, Hugo, Extremely Loud, The Help, Midnight in Paris, Tree of Life, Dragon Tattoo, and Harry 7:2 (taking the brit bloc slot away from Tinker Tailor).
This year, SO hard to tell because so many of the films are nostalgic, sentimental, and/or homages to film.
Kristopher Tapley Dragon Tattoo would not be in with 10.
December 2, 2011 at 5:51PM ESTJJ1 OK, I take your well-informed opinion. :)
December 2, 2011 at 6:17PM ESTBrock Landers Really not Oscar material eh? Or is it just not very good?
December 2, 2011 at 11:43PM ESTBrock Landers I assume you saw it based on your tweets.
December 2, 2011 at 11:44PM ESTMatthew Starr
December 2, 2011 at 5:01PM EST Reply to CommentHow are you guys ready to do your top ten? I can't imagine anyone having seen everything by December 9.
Kristopher Tapley Yet...gasp!...we will have.
December 2, 2011 at 5:51PM ESTJ.
December 2, 2011 at 5:06PM EST Reply to CommentIf I were betting with Anne, I would bet on 50/50 making a screenplay nomination. Reiser's backstory is a perfect storm, and it's the easiest way to reward a movie people love (IF there's a proper campaign). On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if Moneyball eventually lost momentum with the writers -- its structure doesn't serve the film as well as it could, and the idol-worship for Sorkin and Zaillian will run out eventually.
andre22
December 2, 2011 at 5:14PM EST Reply to CommentI am simply amazed that anyone could consider HUGO a possible Oscar-winner.
A movie where a child-actor has one of the leading parts NEVER wins for best picture (or at least only very rarely)
Besides Scorsese has already been honoured for ‘The Departed’, so the Academy doesn’t own him anything.
The strongest argument for HUGO not winning, however, is the title. Short titles do not win for best picture at the Oscars (Gigi from 1958 being an exception).
Kristopher Tapley Slumdog Millionaire did pretty well.
December 2, 2011 at 5:52PM ESTThe short title argument is nonsense. Come on.
Deena Jones' wig LOL! Kris, your response to the short title argument had me in stitches. I am still laughing. I think the "come on" is what got me. Some people go overboard with this prediction game.
December 2, 2011 at 6:05PM ESTCaptainCanada "Oliver!" springs to mind as well (though, come of think of it, "Slumdog Millionaire" is basically an adaptation of Oliver Twist set in modern India).
December 2, 2011 at 10:08PM ESTDylanS I also think of it as having a bit of "Great Expectations". It's very Dickensian in that way.
December 2, 2011 at 11:03PM ESTJLPatt "Marty," "Gigi," "Oliver!," "Crash," all short titles. And one of them led by a child.
December 2, 2011 at 11:16PM ESTLola
December 2, 2011 at 5:23PM EST Reply to CommentI guess Midnight in Paris was re-released because it's playing here in Iowa in a major theatre along with Moneyball? Woody is not getting a Best Director nod over other young hot directors. For sure Screenplay like they did Mike Leigh last year. I know they love Allen but I think/hope they recognize other names doing great work.
Billyboy SPC are indeed re-releasing the film in +300 theaters this weekend.
December 2, 2011 at 7:22PM ESTJordyn Lola, where in Iowa do you live? Not to sound creepy but I went to college there (U of I).
December 2, 2011 at 8:12PM ESTHoustonRufus
December 2, 2011 at 5:57PM EST Reply to CommentLooking forward to going home, pouring myself a glass of wine and listening. It's become something of a ritual of late.
Brock Landers
December 2, 2011 at 6:43PM EST Reply to CommentKris, when is the Dragon Tattoo embargo lifted? Will you be able to talk/tweet about it after you see it this weekend or is it lifted later next week?
Kristopher Tapley 13th
December 2, 2011 at 9:10PM ESTAden
December 2, 2011 at 8:11PM EST Reply to CommentMy Week with Marilyn-- a musical, NOT a comedy. There are musical numbers because the Prince and the Showgirl had musical numbers in it... and considering the story of the making of this film is the basis for My Week with Marilyn, I don't see how this is baffling.
Evan Yes, but it was sometimes a comedy too... albeit unintentionally. ;)
December 2, 2011 at 8:15PM ESTAden My comment was in regards to Anne T's statement that MWWM should be considered a drama. Yes, Williams' gives an exceptional dramatic performance, but the film as a whole is light and breezy and is meant to be a musical with comedic elements. Half of her role is to the play the "Marilyn Monroe" character who was perceived to be a goof/a comedian by some measure. It's unfair to write it off as a drama just because Williams' is capable of portraying a side of Monroe that we haven't seen before. Unfortunately, the film doesn't sit at that level the entire time. It shifts from a character study to a lighthearted comedy.
December 2, 2011 at 8:39PM ESTLaura Stewart
December 2, 2011 at 8:33PM EST Reply to CommentKris, is it wise for you to be betting again? Didn't you bet someone 500 bucks that Leo DiCaprio will win best actor? ;)
Anyway, I'm right with you on The Company Men being a far superior film to Margin Call. TWC tossed it aside last year, which is a shame, because I think it's one of Affleck's best performances to date, not to mention an outstanding supporting cast. Cooper broke my heart in that film.
I laughed out loud when Anne said her daughter was "bothering" her from China... that sounds so harsh yet funny... if I was in China and trying to get a hold of my mom, I would be relentless too!
Kristopher Tapley No, that was a bet that Ides of March would get at least three Oscar nods. Seemed a safe bet to me!
December 2, 2011 at 9:11PM ESTIt's an addiction.
Graysmith
December 2, 2011 at 10:30PM EST Reply to CommentMidnight in Paris isn't dead at all. You've got the Golden Globe nominations coming up and then it'll be out on DVD/Blu-ray on the 20th, just in time for people to fall in love with it all over again (or for the first time, if they missed it in theaters). It's certainly not a done deal (save for Original Screenplay, which I can't imagine it missing), but hasn't even gotten to its second wind yet.
Frank Lee I'm guessing "Midnight in Paris" will get skunked. "Vicky Christina Barcelona" was also very popular (by Woody Allen standards), but it did not even get nominated for Best Screenplay. And it had a much better screenplay than does "Midnight in Paris." Kris has it listed for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay. I can't see that happening. Maybe the fellow playing Hemingway will get nominated. He was easily the best thing about the movie. But, like I said, I expect it to receive nothing. Anne and I are of one mind on that. But on "The Help," we differ. It seems to me that the weighted voting system that the Academy uses will favor "The Help" in many categories, but especially for Best Picture and Best Director.
December 2, 2011 at 11:19PM ESTJLPatt I think you're one of the very few who thinks the "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" screenplay was better than "Midnight in Paris," Frank.
December 2, 2011 at 11:22PM ESTRashad He's not alone. It was sharper, and less repetitive.
December 3, 2011 at 12:38PM ESTJJ1 I think 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona' is a better film than 'Midnight in Paris'.
December 3, 2011 at 12:49PM ESTPro
December 2, 2011 at 10:38PM EST Reply to CommentWhy does Warren Beatty casting Felicity Jones in his next movie make a difference? Why does Beatty have so much clout? When was the last time he was relevant? Last time hollywood gave him a big budget, he gave them one of the biggest flops of all time. I'm sick of people using the Beatty factor when it comes to Oscar races. It's bad enough we have to hear it whenever Annette Bening is nominated.
Kristopher Tapley "When was the last time he was relevant?"
December 3, 2011 at 4:49AM ESTMan, you're not looking at the bigger picture at all.
PRO Well can you explain it? Why does Warren Beatty have so much pull in hollywood? It can't be just Bonnie and Clyde 44 years ago.
December 4, 2011 at 6:20PM ESTHoustonRufus
December 2, 2011 at 10:47PM EST Reply to CommentKudos to you and Anne for being good to We Bought a Zoo. Not every film needs to be award worthy to be worth seeing.
JLPatt
December 2, 2011 at 11:20PM EST Reply to CommentAnne is right, "The Tree of Life" is winning Cinematography. Not even sure how it's a competition. The absolutely stunning beauty of the film + the fact Lubezki has NEVER won (!) + the fact nothing comes even close visually or has stirred up as much talk - all leads to an easy win.
HoustonRufus I think I agree with Kris on the bet but I hope Anne is right. ha!
December 2, 2011 at 11:47PM ESTKristopher Tapley Emmanuel Lubezki never winning doesn't matter one bit. Most of the Academy don't know who's shooting what, on top of which, the name isn't even on the ballot. Just the film.
December 3, 2011 at 4:51AM ESTIt's not winning. I feel very strongly of this.
JJ1 As I said in an above comment, True Grit had this thing locked up until Inception's name was called last year. One would have thought "landscape cinematography + Deakins(!) + let's give True Grit something" would have done it ... nnnnnnope.
December 3, 2011 at 8:34AM ESTJJ1 THAT cinematography win, along with it's 3 others, is kind of why I think Inception would have been the 5th film in a year of 5 BP's and not Black Swan (which only had 5 noms, and the one win for Actress).
December 3, 2011 at 8:41AM ESTI think more voters were compelled to vote for Inception for BP on merit, or for it's ambition, or for Nolan (who got in for producing, writing, yet must have just missed out BD), etc..
But then, no editing nom, either. Either way, I think it must have been very, very close (5th/6th).
Evan I was operating under the assumption TToL wouldn't win cinematography, but I've changed my mind. I think it's the one place to reward TToL and I think that Oscar voters tend to respond to "beautiful," which everyone-- even the film's detractors-- admits that TToL is.
December 3, 2011 at 12:37PM ESTLube ski hasn't won before not because of himself, but because his best work just isn't as 'purdy.' Children of Men was great, but it was dirty and gritty, IMO not in the Oscar aesthetic.
It's main competition is War Horse and I've already heard complaints or criticisms of its cinematography. TToL is no sure thing, but I do think it will get the win. I look forward to seeing who wins this bet. ;)
Danny
December 2, 2011 at 11:56PM EST Reply to CommentI think Tree of Life will sneak in as the "dramatic" contender (or is it the "artsy" contender?). There will be a strong enough minority of people who love this film to push it into contention. Maybe not Top 5, but on the list of up to 10. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is another likely "dramatic' contender. It does seem unlikely that all nominees will be lighter and/or nostalgic an/or feel-good fare with no "serious" "drama" in the mix.
chilledstate
December 3, 2011 at 2:04AM EST Reply to CommentWhen are you guys going to see "Extremely Loud" finally?
Robin
December 4, 2011 at 11:09AM EST Reply to CommentI agree with Kris, ToL won't win cinematography. It'll probably win the ASC as they are usually pretty discerning about quality even in the face of Oscar juggernauts, but the Oscars will go to to something handsome and sweeping like War Horse. In other words it'll be The White Ribbon vs Avatar again, with The Artist in the Hurt Locker position hoping to capitalise on a sweep.