Oscar Talk: Ep. 64 -- Digging into the lead categories
Also: Talking NYFF opener 'Carnage' and critical reaction to 'The Ides of March
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Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you're new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar's stage and we're here to address it all as it unfolds.
Anne is calling in today from New York where she's on hand for the New York Film Festival. Much of what's there she (and I) have already seen, but there are one or two treats for folks like her who hit just about every major festival, including the big premiere of "My Week with Marilyn" (and whatever Monday's super secret work-in-progress secret screening might be). But there's plenty to talk about otherwise, so let's see what's on the docket today...
Starting with the New York fest opener, Roman Polanski's "Carnage," the two of us caught the film at a screening here in Los Angeles last week. She's much more forgiving of it than I am.
All of the performances in Polanski's film may well be campaigned as lead, and with that as a bit of a segue, we take the opportunity this week, after sussing out the supporting races last week, to chew on and mull over the lead actor and lead actress races.
We take a minute to discuss the critical reception to "The Ides of March," which, speaking for myself, is kind of odd. The film opens today.
Anne briefly talks about what she's planning to take in while at the fest, including the premiere of the Michelle Williams starter "My Week with Marilyn" and a special showing of Hayao Miyazaki's "Castle in the Sky."
Finally, reader questions! We address queries concerning the nebulous "British voting block," critics taking umbrage with the Oscar season being an "unfortunate guest" on the fall festival circuit and the nature of ravenous anticipation for year-end films stifling appreciation for other contenders.
Have a listen to the new podcast below with a little Billy Joel leading the way in honor of NYFF. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. And as always, remember to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
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Best Adapted Screenplay
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Best Original Score
Best Original Song
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Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupMatt King
October 7, 2011 at 1:11PM EST Reply to CommentI liked Jane Eyre, and I'm a dude. Weird how that works.
JJ1 I liked, not loved 'Jane Eyre'. I'm a 31 yr. old guy. It's the type of film I normally love, but I found it a bit muted. Still, exquisite craftsmanship and very good performances.
October 7, 2011 at 1:14PM ESTMatt King Yeah, I was just responding to Anne's comment about it being a woman's movie. Which I guess, it might be in terms of key demos, but that's kind of reductive of the film, and the Bronte novel as well.
October 7, 2011 at 2:09PM ESTBryan Kris, if you didn't get through the first 30 minutes, give it another look. The beginning is probably the least interesting part.
October 7, 2011 at 2:23PM ESTLaura Stewart Agreed with Bryan. It gets better... and I know you're a guy Kris but it's Michael Fassbender- he makes any human being weak in the knees.
October 7, 2011 at 5:26PM ESTHoustonRufus Honestly, I'm a guy and did not enjoy Jane Eyre. I might also add, I love the novel and have loved other film adaptations. I enjoyed the direction and style of the movie very much--young, fresh, moody. And Fassbender was a terrific Rochester. But, unlike Anne, I found Mia chilly and remote as Jane, to the point of stifling any real chemistry with Fassbender. This is a story where the chemistry has to be there or it doesn't work. And it just wasn't for me. I didn't believe for a second that Rochester was in love with Jane and was downright shocked when Jane revealed love for Rochester. I think Mia is a fine actress, but I didn't believer her portrayal of Jane at all.
October 7, 2011 at 10:41PM ESTshank
October 7, 2011 at 2:25PM EST Reply to Commentkris u dont discuss leonardo di caprio for actor and keira knightley for actress
Kristopher Tapley We talk Leo briefly but what's there to say really? And Keira was mentioned in supporting last week.
October 7, 2011 at 2:43PM ESTEvan
October 7, 2011 at 2:49PM EST Reply to CommentA) Anne, you're wonderful (You too, Kris, but I already knew that.)
B) Not that I think Elizabeth Olsen is out of the running, but the "Someone from Sundance will get in because it happened the last four years" argument really doesn't cut it for me. Coincidences happen and that streak really benefited, IMO, from Precious and Winter's Bone taking off as Best Picture contenders. Mx4 just doesn't have that sort of hype, at least at the moment. (That said, this is a down year with only one surefire-- Viola-- and then Meryl, who could feasibly disappoint. This category is ripe for a surprise or two.)
Guy Lodge In fairness to Kris, his argument isn't simply that Olsen will get in because she's the token Sundance contender. She's got a lot more going for her than that. The performance is remarkable and broadly acclaimed, the Academy's fondness for hot young ingenues is well-documented, and her celebrity connection makes her very media-friendly -- not to be cynical or anything, but "the little Olsen sister who can act!" is a catchy narrative on which to build a campaign. Plus, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her take a major critics' award or two.
October 7, 2011 at 3:25PM ESTKristopher Tapley Yeah, I'm not even predicting Olsen. And if you listen, I say clearly that "if we're going with an assumption that someone from Sundance can get in based on that," then it should be Olsen. It's not like I'm saying it's happened for four years, therefore it definitely will happen this year. Not at all. It's to confront Anne's logic from last year that the Sundance-to-Oscar haul is too difficult for her to manage. In essence, I'm saying the last four years prove otherwise.
October 7, 2011 at 4:10PM ESTKristopher Tapley Anne's logic from last week, that should say.
October 7, 2011 at 4:10PM ESTEvan Give me some credit-- I knew you weren't saying that Olsen is getting nominated because and/or only because her movie debuted at Sundance. That's why I didn't direct my comment to you, Kris.
October 7, 2011 at 5:07PM ESTI do, however, feel that many people are operating under the assumption that one of the Sundance girls is getting in. It's why, post-Sundance, so many people were asking "Who's the next Jennifer Lawrence? What's the next Winter's Bone?" and why, throughout the summer when so much of the year was left, Olsen and Jones were plastered all over predictions. Just look at the Post-TIFF Gurus of Gold and how many of the bloggers have either Olsen or Jones in their top 7.
Anyway, that wasn't me disagreeing with you. It was a response to one particular Oscar dogma I've been noticing that's based around some short-term trend in the nominations.
Kristopher Tapley It sounded to me like that's what you thought I meant, so...
October 7, 2011 at 11:14PM ESTAnita
October 7, 2011 at 3:01PM EST Reply to CommentYou should definitely watch Pariah if you get the chance. It does seem grim from the outside, but it is infinitely more vibrant and enjoyable and humourous than it lets on. It has deeply emotional scenes, but the journey with the main character is ultimately very rewarding in the end. It is definitely not Precious -- and that's a compliment. I would love to see a writing nomination for it somewhere because so much of its success with audiences comes from its fantastic screenplay.
loyal_mehnert
October 7, 2011 at 3:11PM EST Reply to CommentThanks Kris and Anne for answering my question about the fabled British voting block.
I've found it really interesting that pundits are pinning Tinker Tailor's Oscar hopes on those votes when a much more Academy friendly project with many of the same attractive Brit qualities exists in War Horse.
Guy Lodge In the case of 'Tinker, Tailor', British nostalgia for the source material is very strong -- which is what's driving its remarkable UK box-office success, and I suspect will drive it through awards season.
October 7, 2011 at 3:30PM ESTThere isn't quite the same level of sentimental attachment here to the 'War Horse' source novel or play -- not that I don't think it'll do well here.
October 7, 2011 at 3:37PM ESTIf anything, an espionage story is at an Oscar disadvantage. How often are those genre pieces even recognized?
Guy Lodge It's not just le Carré -- it's the beloved TV miniseries. All I know is that older audiences who don't usually hurry to the movies turned out in droves for this one. The BAFTA crowd will love it.
October 7, 2011 at 4:10PM ESTAs for the genre question, how often is there an espionage piece worth recognising? The awards season is built on exceptions to rules. And this is hardly slam-bang commercial genre filmmaking -- it's measured period drama.
DylanS I adressed this is a reader question before, but I suspect "Tinker, Tailor" will repeat it BO success stateside. I din't suspect on the same level as in the UK, but I think it'll find a pretty solid audience. I've talked to many people who are anticipating its release
October 7, 2011 at 4:48PM EST
October 7, 2011 at 9:10PM ESTGuy Lodge Indeed, we must wait and see -- not least because we have no idea yet how War Horse even plays!
October 7, 2011 at 9:33PM ESTWill
October 7, 2011 at 4:06PM EST Reply to CommentVery interesting podcast (as always).
It's Benedict CumberbaTCH, though. Not Cumberban.
Laura Stewart
October 7, 2011 at 4:38PM EST Reply to CommentWhy isn't Guy in on this Oscar Talk? :(
Guy Lodge Well, I've never been an Oscar Talk regular. And with the time difference and our conflicting schedules, it's not always easy for me to record. But it's nice to know I'm wanted! I'm sure I'll make a few appearances over the season. ;)
October 7, 2011 at 5:07PM ESTHoustonRufus I second this. Would love to hear your perspective.
October 7, 2011 at 10:44PM ESTKristopher Tapley Having Guy on from London fest makes sense. Maybe we'll do that.
October 7, 2011 at 11:15PM ESTLaura Stewart
October 7, 2011 at 5:23PM EST Reply to Comment"Elizabeth Olsen does circles around Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone"- THANK YOU! Someone had to say it. Elizabeth Olsen has a much more engaging role and she does a terrific job. I don't understand the Winter's Bone love... granted, I walked out of the theater half-way because it was so boring.
Mykill I can't really compare the two personally, since I haven't seen MMMM yet (although I'm dying to see it b/c I've heard such great things about it), but I do agree with you about the love for Winter's Bone and Jennifer Lawrence being one of the more unfortunate outcomes of last year. Does anyone at all even remember that movie or that performance? Such a waste of space at the awards ceremony, that could've been filled by MUCH more deserving people imho. I hope this year doesn't have that happen quite as much...
October 7, 2011 at 7:40PM ESTLaura Stewart I wouldn't consider Lawrence to be an "unfortunate outcome of last year" but I get what you're saying. I don't think the film should have been nominated for best picture, that's for sure.(Sidenote: one of the unfortunate outcomes of last year is certainly Blake Lively... she was terrible in The Town and I don't understand the buzz around her... she is an AWFUL actress.) Everything about MMMM keeps you on your toes and is so engaging, and I attribute that to Olsen's performance & Durkin's phenomenal direction. I think Lawrence is talented and has a huge future ahead of her, but she didn't impress me in X-Men and I don't see her carrying that certain "star wattage" that Olsen has already shown in interviews and such. Anyway my point is, Winter's Bone did not impress and MMMM is without a doubt the better of the two- even lead actress performance wise. I don't care how many rabbits Lawrence had to skin, she doesn't hold a candle to Olsen's incredible performance in MMMM.
October 7, 2011 at 8:55PM ESTHoustonRufus Hmm, I haven't seen Olsen in MMMM, but I was a big fan of Winter's Bone. I thought Lawrence was a revelation in it. Having said that, MMMM sounds like it will be right in my sweet spot. I expect to love it.
October 7, 2011 at 10:45PM ESTKristopher Tapley To be clear, I think Lawrence is fantastic in Winter's Bone. Her and Hawkes are the only things I liked about.
October 7, 2011 at 11:16PM ESTthekingbulletin I would've liked "Winter's Bone" more if there was actually a story.
October 8, 2011 at 2:58AM ESTJJ1 HA, at thekingbulletin ^. Agreed. I thought Lawrence was very good (not revelatory). I really liked Hawkes. I liked the initial mood/tone of the film; the setting etc.. But that film held little interest to me, narratively.
October 8, 2011 at 10:29AM ESTJuanL
October 7, 2011 at 5:24PM EST Reply to CommentCastle in the Sky is one of my top ten of all time, up there with well regarded classics. I hope Ann enjoys.
rentrobuff
October 7, 2011 at 7:51PM EST Reply to CommentGreat podcast! For the last two weeks, you have run down the actresses from Sundance who lasted all year to get nominations -- Linney, Leo, Sidibe, Lawrence... but don't forget that Carey Mulligan premiered there too!
Kristopher Tapley Indeed.
October 7, 2011 at 11:17PM ESTJLPatt
October 7, 2011 at 9:21PM EST Reply to CommentI think Shannon is totally in. Just take a look at those reviews. EVERYONE is over the moon for him.
I'm also predicting Olsen for Actress. It seems like EXACTLY the kind of small, enormously praised stand-out young female performance that the Academy goes for all the time.
JJ1 I think there are 8 actors in real contention for he 5 noms: Clooney, Dujardin, Oldman, DiCaprio, Glosing, Pitt, Shannon, and Fassbender (on the outside).
October 8, 2011 at 10:32AM ESTI include Shannon for 2 reasons and 2 reasons only: 1) the reviews 2) he was nominated recently when no one expected him.
/3rt
October 7, 2011 at 9:28PM EST Reply to CommentI'm still sad for Glenn Close. The early word of mouth and the fact she seems happy playing her character so low-key that it doesn't register much at all on film. I'd love for her to take home one competitive Oscar in the Best Actress category for a worthy performance and for career appreciation for her legendary 80s-period but I know she's going to lose to superior performances but just about everyone else who could be nominated this year.
I also like to add that I hope Jessica Chastain wins an Oscar in a season where she's a lead actress contender instead of a supporting one. She's too talented to get stuck in Meryl Streep mode of having two wins one supporting the other lead. One day she should join the Hilary Swank club and have two of those bad boys for lead.
If Meryl Streep were to win this season she will be only the 5th actress to win Best Actress in her 60s.
JJ1 I don't subscribe to the "he/she's won 2 Oscars, but 1 ONLY in Supporting". Cry me a river. To me, an Oscar is an Oscar.
October 8, 2011 at 10:36AM ESTDalurae
October 7, 2011 at 10:14PM EST Reply to CommentMichael Shannon deserves a huge push. Word, Kris. Word.
juan_josé_serrano
October 8, 2011 at 1:31AM EST Reply to CommentWhy are people losing faith on Oldman damnit! He's getting nommed I demand it, it's his time and I refuse to believe that the best actor lineup is going to be all stars and hunks I don't think that has ever happened there is always a veteran in there
Danny
October 8, 2011 at 12:31PM EST Reply to CommentI wonder what Brad Pitt's chances are for nominations in both Actor and Sup. Actor. If only one category I am inclined to guess Sup. Actor for Tree of Life will be the one to come through.
Saw Moneyball last night and found it at times frustratingly cold anc clinical but then also really smart with explosions of great lines and acting moments. A film that at times bored me, yet still got under my skin more deeply than I thought it was. Brad Pitt is very good in it and clearly is in the running for a Best Actor nomination. I give him higher chances for sup. actor for tree of Life because for those who love that movie, his is a towering performance, most likely to be the first choice for many when listing sup actor nominees.
Whereas the roster of potential Best Actor nominees is looking really strong, and I can imagine Pitt being a second or third choice for many behind Clooney or Fassbender or Dicaprio or Oldman.
He would be a deserving nominee for either role in either category. my instincts tell me his best chances for a nomination and even winning are for Tree of Life.
Ben
October 8, 2011 at 12:36PM EST Reply to CommentAnne, last week: "I live in reality". Anne, this week: non-stop cheering on Jane Eyre, when she should know it's a completely different animal (particularly with release dates, etc.) than Atonement and while I liked the film, it doesn't have the passion to come back like that.
rSark
October 8, 2011 at 1:40PM EST Reply to CommentPariah is nowhere near as dark as Precious, just and FYI. I saw this past week and can actually say it has quite a bit of humor. It's not without its problems (I had some issues with how it ended, and I think it could have been a longer film), but I kinda loved it. Along with "Weekend," and some festival films I've seen, it's been a pretty strong year for queer cinema.
The lead has no chance, though she is good. Kim Wayans is its best shot at a nomination (in supporting).