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Announcing the grand re-opening of The Contenders!

Charting the race from 1-30

By Kristopher TapleyThursday, Oct 20, 2011 4:40 PM

We chart the ups and downs of Oscar season in our newly revamped Contenders section.

Credit: AP Photo/Amy Sancetta

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Sorry for the delay in getting our unique Contenders section off the ground here at the new HitFix digs. The hard-working team here has a number of other projects that obviously aren't In Contention-related, so you can empathize with the heavy workload.

But the wait is over! We've got the new section up and running. You'll note a link above, under the blog logo, as well as in the sidebar with our predictions, as usual. We still have things tiered. "Good Bets" is a section reserved for contenders in each category that seem good to go for a nomination. "Other Possibilities" are just that, contenders in the thick of the hunt. "Dark Horses" are outside chances that deserve to be plucked from "The Rest of the Field," which lays out most of the other hopefuls aiming for room in the race.

Where things are different is in my decision to rank the bottom tier along with the top three sections. Call it a tip of the hat to the old days of Zuesefer (those who have been following the Oscar race online for a decade will remember). I've spread the fields out to a list of 30 contenders in each category and ranked them all the way down.

It should go without saying not to take things too seriously when it comes to the ranking of those lower portions. But it'll be worth keeping an eye on things as they move across the chart. Those changes, up or down, will be noted each week (starting with the next wave of updates), which is a feature we abandoned once upon a time.

We haven't yet filled out the original song, foreign film and documentary feature sections, but we will in due time. For now, though, I'm happy to finally have this off the ground, so check out our new rankings at The Contenders and keep an eye out each Monday for the shifting and sliding of the field.

Oh, one more thing. I'm sure many of you will be happy to see the full line-up of categories back in the right sidebar. This was part of the transition, too, as it was dependent on things we were building into the contenders feature. There is a shortcut to each category's contender page by clicking on the accompanying image in the sidebar.

So there we have it! Enjoy the latest updates. More as the season progresses.

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Kristopher Tapley
Editor-at-Large

Kristopher Tapley has covered the film awards landscape for over a decade. He founded In Contention in 2005. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Times of London and Variety. He begs you not to take any of this too seriously.

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Brock Landers

Layout looks great.

Might want to bump Leo up closer to the top though. I heard he kills it in J. Edgar.
October 20, 2011 at 5:33PM EST Reply to Comment
Amir

Kris is it possible to add a direct link to Guy's predictions on the sidebar, like you used to have on the old site?
I don't know if it's just me but it's difficult to find a link to it now.
October 20, 2011 at 5:33PM EST Reply to Comment
- Kristopher Tapley Right, good call.
  October 20, 2011 at 6:01PM EST
Mike_M

Kris, why does the pic above the category not always match someone/a movie who is in the list on the side-bar?
October 20, 2011 at 5:43PM EST Reply to Comment
- Daniel Nava Was wondering this myself.
  October 20, 2011 at 5:48PM EST
- Kristopher Tapley Because it doesn't have to?
  
  No, but really, each pic matches whatever pic has been loaded on the contenders page for that category. So, for instance, I'm talking about Melancholia in the cinematography section this week and included a pic from it as a result. So it pops up on the main page here.
  October 20, 2011 at 6:02PM EST
- Andrej Tintin for best editing would be amazing, though.
  October 20, 2011 at 6:32PM EST
Matt

Kris, It frustrates me (at AMPAS and the good ol' boys, not you) how set your top 9 probably are in Best Actor...While I have only seen a few of those performances and have heard most if not all are fantastic, it breaks my heart that numbers 11 and 12 are falling fast... Specifically JGL...he was amazing...
October 20, 2011 at 7:27PM EST Reply to Comment
tony r

Think you're over-estimating The Artist, at least as far as placing it in the Good Bets section for those big categories. I think Tinker, Tailor and The Descendants are more of a sure thing.

October 20, 2011 at 7:36PM EST Reply to Comment
- Kristopher Tapley I think you're wrong. ;)
  October 20, 2011 at 8:05PM EST
Anita

I got to see Young Adult this week and I'm glad to see Theron and Oswalt in your respective top fives - I hope they remain there for the duration of the season. They are both fantastic and Theron, especially, has been given a plum role and she completely delivers. Not sure about Original Screenplay, though. I thought the screenplay was good, not great, and I'd much rather see MMMM, 50/50 and Take Shelter get in over it (and I am by no means one of the many, many Diablo Cody haters around these and other parts - anyone who gave the world United States of Tara will forever be cherished in my book).
October 20, 2011 at 7:42PM EST Reply to Comment
Frank Lee

Kris,
Are you lowballing Tate Taylor in best director because of things you hear or because of your own sense of his directing, or both?
October 20, 2011 at 8:35PM EST Reply to Comment
- adam He directed what is perceived as a women's film, starring women, about women, ostensibly for women. Sexism is a nasty issue and if a film is for/about women then it has an extremely hard road to oscar recognition in anything but acting (and maybe writing, though they can be even worse since it's hip to rag on populist fare that is perceived to cater to the Oprah crowd). Even Spielberg didn't get nominated for his women's film when it was nominated for ten other films (see what I did there, implied sexism was to blame based on the 'box score' when it was probably more about the problematics of how the film was toned down from the book and the bigger issues a white director rather than a white director taking on one of the most iconic pieces of black literature, generalizations are fun!)
  
  But yes, it doesn't matter how good the direction of The Help is, the film has the stink of "women's film" around it, so it will get scant recognition outside of categories women primarily nominate in.
  
  Note also that if Kris' prediction in cinematography holds true she would be the very FIRST female ever nominated in that category.
  October 21, 2011 at 4:32PM EST
JLPatt

Again, the "Secret of the Unicorn" subtitle has been dropped. The film is simply "The Adventures of Tintin." Might want to correct that in the places you have it written so as not to look outdated.
October 20, 2011 at 10:24PM EST Reply to Comment
- Kristopher Tapley Was it not just dropped on international stuff?
  October 21, 2011 at 6:22PM EST
- Kristopher Tapley Actually, it's still on all the marketing materials. It was only dropped from that one UK trailer. Guy can't remember what the title screen says (the only thing that matters in my book), but I'm asking another friend who's seen it what it says there.
  October 21, 2011 at 6:32PM EST
- JLPatt Check out this American poster at impawards: http://impawards.com/2011/adventures_of_tintin_the_secret_of_the_unicorn_ver5.html
  
  And the IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0983193/
  
  Both go with just "The Adventures of Tintin."
  October 21, 2011 at 6:40PM EST
rentrobuff

Are you going to keep the Circuit feature going once we're into awards season, now that you're in your new home?
October 21, 2011 at 1:27AM EST Reply to Comment
gorjan_markovski

Hmm, it surprises me that you have the Like Crazy screenplay over Contagion and MMMM. What's your reasoning?
October 21, 2011 at 2:31AM EST Reply to Comment
Eric

Kris, I would add "In the Land of Blood and Honey" to those acting lists. Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dU0Gx3ArJg&feature=youtu.be
October 21, 2011 at 8:06AM EST Reply to Comment
Ali E.

Kris, I think you're underestimating Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy... I really don't expect the genre bias to hurt its chances. It's high profile and it will also get the British support.
October 21, 2011 at 8:23AM EST Reply to Comment
- Kristopher Tapley Have you seen it?
  October 21, 2011 at 6:22PM EST
Stefan

I still don't understand the lack of faith in Winnie the Pooh getting in. Surely being hand-drawn AND one of the most acclaimed animated films of the year makes it seem like a likely contender.
October 21, 2011 at 9:39AM EST Reply to Comment
Bryce H

I know you said not to take the lower rankings too seriously, but I'm pretty confident that Beginners is one of the 30 most likely original screenplays to be nominated.
October 21, 2011 at 10:53AM EST Reply to Comment
- Kristopher Tapley You're absolutely right. An oversight. And one of the year's best films. I'll correct on the next update.
  October 21, 2011 at 6:23PM EST

2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

UPDATED: FEB 25, 2013

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay

Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

Best Film Editing

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

Best Original Score

Best Original Song

Best Production Design

Best Sound Editing

Best Sound Mixing

Best Visual Effects

Best Animated Feature Film

Best Documentary Feature

Best Foreign Language Film

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Comments

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Option 2

Option 3

Brock Landers Layout looks great.Might want to bump Leo up closer to the top though. I heard he kills it in J. Edgar.

Amir Kris is it possible to add a direct link to Guy's predictions on the sidebar, like you used to have on the old site? I don't know if it's just me but it's difficult to find a link to it now.

Kristopher Tapley Right, good call.

Mike_M Kris, why does the pic above the category not always match someone/a movie who is in the list on the side-bar?

Daniel Nava Was wondering this myself.

Andrej Tintin for best editing would be amazing, though.

tony r Think you're over-estimating The Artist, at least as far as placing it in the Good Bets section for those big categories. I think Tinker, Tailor and The Descendants are more of a sure thing.

Kristopher Tapley I think you're wrong. ;)

Frank Lee Kris, Are you lowballing Tate Taylor in best director because of things you hear or because of your own sense of his directing, or both?

JLPatt Again, the "Secret of the Unicorn" subtitle has been dropped. The film is simply "The Adventures of Tintin." Might want to correct that in the places you have it written so as not to look outdated.

Kristopher Tapley Was it not just dropped on international stuff?

Kristopher Tapley Actually, it's still on all the marketing materials. It was only dropped from that one UK trailer. Guy can't remember what the title screen says (the only thing that matters in my book), but I'm asking another friend who's seen it what it says there.

JLPatt Check out this American poster at impawards: http://impawards.com/2011/adventures_of_tintin_the_secret_of_the_unicorn_ver5.htmlAnd the IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0983193/Both go with just "The Adventures of Tintin."

rentrobuff Are you going to keep the Circuit feature going once we're into awards season, now that you're in your new home?

gorjan_markovski Hmm, it surprises me that you have the Like Crazy screenplay over Contagion and MMMM. What's your reasoning?

Eric Kris, I would add "In the Land of Blood and Honey" to those acting lists. Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dU0Gx3ArJg&feature=youtu.be

Ali E. Kris, I think you're underestimating Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy... I really don't expect the genre bias to hurt its chances. It's high profile and it will also get the British support.

Kristopher Tapley Have you seen it?

Stefan I still don't understand the lack of faith in Winnie the Pooh getting in. Surely being hand-drawn AND one of the most acclaimed animated films of the year makes it seem like a likely contender.

Bryce H I know you said not to take the lower rankings too seriously, but I'm pretty confident that Beginners is one of the 30 most likely original screenplays to be nominated.

Kristopher Tapley You're absolutely right. An oversight. And one of the year's best films. I'll correct on the next update.

2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

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Academy Awards is updated

Brock Landers

Layout looks great.

Might want to bump Leo up closer to the top though. I heard he kills it in J. Edgar.

Amir

Kris is it possible to add a direct link to Guy's predictions on the sidebar, like you used to have on the old site?
I don't know if it's just me but it's difficult to find a link to it now.

Mike_M

Kris, why does the pic above the category not always match someone/a movie who is in the list on the side-bar?

tony r

Think you're over-estimating The Artist, at least as far as placing it in the Good Bets section for those big categories. I think Tinker, Tailor and The Descendants are more of a sure thing.

Frank Lee

Kris,
Are you lowballing Tate Taylor in best director because of things you hear or because of your own sense of his directing, or both?

JLPatt

Again, the "Secret of the Unicorn" subtitle has been dropped. The film is simply "The Adventures of Tintin." Might want to correct that in the places you have it written so as not to look outdated.

JLPatt Check out this American poster at impawards: http://impawards.com/2011/adventures_of_tintin_the_secret_of_the_unicorn_ver5.html

And the IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0983193/

Both go with just "The Adventures of Tintin."

rentrobuff

Are you going to keep the Circuit feature going once we're into awards season, now that you're in your new home?

gorjan_markovski

Hmm, it surprises me that you have the Like Crazy screenplay over Contagion and MMMM. What's your reasoning?

Eric

Kris, I would add "In the Land of Blood and Honey" to those acting lists. Trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dU0Gx3ArJg&feature=youtu.be

Ali E.

Kris, I think you're underestimating Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy... I really don't expect the genre bias to hurt its chances. It's high profile and it will also get the British support.

Stefan

I still don't understand the lack of faith in Winnie the Pooh getting in. Surely being hand-drawn AND one of the most acclaimed animated films of the year makes it seem like a likely contender.

Bryce H

I know you said not to take the lower rankings too seriously, but I'm pretty confident that Beginners is one of the 30 most likely original screenplays to be nominated.

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In Contention is updated