We're guessing if you are a hardcore Oscar fan, when you come in second or third place in your Oscar pool to that intern who just lucikly "guessed" the best  to win the big pot you wanted to pull your hair out.  Awards Campaign is also pretty sure it was the Animated, Live Action and Documentary Short categories that ruined your predictions.  Well, never fear, if there is anything this pundit usually gets right it's the short categories.  Sound Editing and Mixing? We'll that's another issue entirely...

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Animated short is alway a tough call. Many years there is just one candidate that stands out among the others either because it's an artistic accomplishment or it's the most entertaining.  And then there are years Nick Park is nominated.  To say Park is an Oscar favorite is an understatement.  With his latest "Wallace and Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death'" Park has received his sixth nomination.  He's won four times before and the only time he lost was when he was up against himself in the same category.  He's never lost in the Animated short film category and also won in the feature race for "Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit" in 2006 where he beat competing films by Tim Burton and Hayao Miyazaki.  He's the Sally Field of the animated branch.  They really, really like him.  "Loaf and Death" is also the longest of all the nominees (30 minutes) and again features top notch claymation effects.  Has the Academy grown tired of Park yet?  Let's just say we wouldn't bet against him.

The nominees are:

“French Roast” Fabrice O. Joubert
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
“The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” Javier Recio Gracia
“Logorama” Nicolas Schmerkin
“A Matter of Loaf and Death” Nick Park

Who Will Win:
"A Matter of Loaf and Death"
Who Should Win: "The Lady and the Reaper"
Upset Contender: "The Lady and the Reaper," it's the most visually inventive and memorable of all the nominees besides "Loaf and Death."

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

The nominees:

“The Door” Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
“Instead of Abracadabra” Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
“Kavi” Gregg Helvey
“Miracle Fish” Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
“The New Tenants” Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

Who Will Win: "Kavi" (this year's "Slumdog Millionaire")
Who Should Win: "The New Tenants" (surprising, but not for everyone)
Upset Contender: All the other contenders have violent aspects that make them unlike winners so any nominee but "Kavi"?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The nominees are:

“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
“The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
 “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
“Music by Prudence” Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
“Rabbit à la Berlin” Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

Who Will Win: “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
Who Should Win: “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
Upset Contender: "The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant."  Very relevant, but not as emotionally moving as "Tears." It will be close.


For previous predictions, click the links below.

Best Original Score, Best Original Song

Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress

Best Director

Best Editing

Best Animated Feature, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Documentary Feature

Best Cinematography, Best Make Up, Best Costumes and Best Art Direction

Best Actor

Best Actress


Picture, Sound
*Upcoming

For a list of all the 82nd Academy Award nominees, click here.

For the latest Oscar and Entertainment news, follow Gregory Ellwood on Twitter @HitFixGregory.