Cannes Film Festival 2013

2010 Oscar Nominations Predictions begin with 'Avatar,' 'Hurt Locker' and Sandra Bullock

Which three films will make the final Best Picture slots?

<p>Jeremy Renner, Sandra Bullock and the forces behind "Avatar" should all be smiling after the 82nd Academy Awards nominees are announced on Tuesday morning.</p>

Jeremy Renner, Sandra Bullock and the forces behind "Avatar" should all be smiling after the 82nd Academy Awards nominees are announced on Tuesday morning.

Just as you'd expect with a fundamental change to the Best Picture race, this Oscar season has been full of surprises.  Films that were expected to be major players such as "Amelia," "A Serious Man," "A Single Man," "Brothers" and, most notably, "Nine," have fallen by the wayside and surprise candidates such as "Avatar," "District 9," "Crazy Heart" and "The Messenger" are primed to make some noise when nominations are announced early Tuesday morning.

However, while the new ten nominee system has made it more difficult than ever to predict the process, but that doesn't mean there aren't any guarantees.  In fact, this pundit is willing to guarantee seven of the 10 Best Picture contenders, but beyond that?  It's - for lack of a better phrase - up in the air.

As for the remaining "major" categories -- acting, directing and screenwriting -- there is still room for some unexpected honorees, especially in the scripted realm.  That being said, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress are pretty much set.  The Supporting nods?  Well, let's just predict the fifth member of each pool may lead to some feigns of surprise from the assembled press and publicity core at the Academy Theater for the announcements.  Taking all of this into account, I've prepared my final nomination predictions with a few wildcards for each category thrown in for good measure.  Any candiate that is starred is pretty much a stone cold lock.  We'll find out for sure very early on Tuesday morning. 


Best Picture:

Prediction:
"Avatar"*
"The Hurt Locker"*
"Up in the Air"*
"Inglourious Basterds"*
"Precious"*
"Up"*
"An Education"*
"Invictus"
"District 9"
"The Messenger"

Wildcards:

"The Blind Side"
"The Last Station"
"Star Trek"
"Crazy Heart"
"The Hangover"

Lowdown: How fast has "Invictus" fallen? How fast has "Crazy Heart," "The Messenger" or "The Hangover" risen?  And will geeks scream from the rafters if "Star Trek" makes it? The mornings most dramatic announcement as always.

Best Actor

Prediction:
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"*
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"*
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"*
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

Wildcards:
Sam Worthington, "Avatar"
Robert Downey, Jr., "Sherlock Holmes"

Lowdown: Is Freeman in or is he out?  If he's out, could Worthington or Downey, Jr. sneak in?

Best Actress

Prediction:
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"*
Meryl Streep, "Julie and Julia"*
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"*
Gabourey Sibide, "Precious"*
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"*

Wildcards:
Zoe Saldana, "Avatar"
Emily Blunt, "The Young Victoria"

Lowdown: It's hard to imagine any of the top five ladies getting shut out.  It's been too weak a year.

Best Director

Prediction:
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"*
James Cameron, "Avatar"*
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"*
Lee Daniels, "Precious"*
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"*

Wildcards:
Neill Bloomkamp, "District 9"
Pete Doctor, "Up"
Clint Eastwood, "Invictus"

Lowdown: In theory, Daniels is vulernable here, but we don't buy it. Top five should be safe although the battle is still between Bigelow and Cameron.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction:
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"*
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"*
Matt Damon, "Invictus"*
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"

Wildcard:
Alfred Molina, "An Education"
Alec Baldwin, "It's Complicated"

Lowdown: Tucci and Plummer aren't locks because their films aren't as "loved" as "It's Complicated" (which just passed $100 million domestic) by the Academy's demo.  Don't be surprised if Oscar host and recent Golden Globe winner Baldwin makes the cut.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction:
Mo'Nique, "Precious"*
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"*
Julianne Moore, "A Single Man"*
Vera Farminga, "Up in the Air"*
Diane Kruger, "Inglourious Basterds"

Wildcards:
Penelope Cruz, "Nine"
Samantha Morton, "The Messenger"

Lowdown: Cruz was in the five for the longest time, but the stink on "Nine" makes it hard to believe she'll still make it in.  We're betting the love for "Basterds," which was shown at the SAG Awards, will get Kruger in with the Academy just as she landed a SAG nod.

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction:
"Up"*
"Inglourious Basterds"*
"500 Days of Summer"*
"The Hurt Locker"*
"A Serious Man"

Wildcards:
"Avatar"
"It's Complicated"
"The Hangover"

Lowdown: One of the toughest to guage because so many contenders were made ineligible for the WGA Awards which is usually a strong indicator of both writing categories.  "Avatar" and "Hangover" could both sneak in, but are they really that deserving?
 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction:
"Up in the Air"*
"Precious"*
"District 9"
"An Education"*
"Crazy Heart"

Wildcards:
"In the Loop"
"Julie & Julia"

Lowdown: Lord we'd love for "Loop" to sneak in, but it seems as though it's been more of a critic's favorite than anything else.  Overall this is a very weak category, so it wouldn't come as a shock of "Julie & Julia" snuck in over "Crazy Heart."

Look for complete coverage of the 82nd Academy Award Nominations beginning at 8:30 AM EST/5:30 AM PST on HitFix.

Who do you think will be nominated for Oscars this year? Share your thoughts below.
 

Comments

  • Option 1

    Comment instantly as a guest Guest
  • Option 2

    Connect
  • Option 3

    Login or create a HitFix account Login Signup
  • Default-avatar

    alex

    A weak year for best actress Oscar???

    Where are the real standouts performances like Michelle Pffeifer in Cheri and Tilda Swinton in Julia?

    And you are talking of nominate Zoe Saldana??? Oh my God, the world is mad. And the horribles Sandra Bullock and Gabby Sidibe (only for do of herself)?
    Oh my God, what an injustice¡¡

    February 1, 2010 at 6:56AM EST Reply to Comment
    • No one was more of a Pfeiffer fan in Cheri than me, but Miramax screwed that up big time. It's still weak when that's not even on the Academy's radar.

      February 1, 2010 at 4:16PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Don't be silly.

    District 9 will not be nominated. How could anyone predict that?

    A Serious Man, A Single Man and Crazy Heart all have a much better chance of a nomination.

    UP is also no lock.

    February 1, 2010 at 8:08AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      Ryan Hoffman Most of the best Oscar Prognosticators are going with D9 in. How Elwood doesn't mention "A Serious Man" in the possibilities, let alone being in, is a tad crazy, and saying Sam Worthington or RDJ have a chance is borderline retarded.
      That said the actual nominees he chose are exactly like mine, with the exception of The Messenger and Helen Mirren.

      February 1, 2010 at 3:50PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Sarah

    I bet you Helen Mirren won't be there. Your best actor predictions mirror mine... and seemingly, everyone else's.

    February 1, 2010 at 11:28PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Photo_15_talkback_profile

    Jordo

    I think we'll see at least two surprises come tomorrow. I'm surprised that Melanie Laurent is not in the Oscar mix.

    February 2, 2010 at 12:05AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Johnny

    One thing, we do not need 10 best picture nominees, just too much and wining the oscar is gonna be though, even for the favorites.

    So if this was my way...

    Best Picture (with 5 nominees as it should have stayed FOREVER)

    Avatar
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglorious Basterds
    Precious
    Up In The Air

    Winner: Avatar (It was just Amazing!)

    Best Actress

    Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
    Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
    Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
    Carey Mulligan (An Education)
    Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

    Winner: Sandra Bullock (She'll get it because this is probably the only performance in her career that will be considered award worth not worthy to win but to be nominated which is more than enough for the Academy to give it to her, I mean, remember Julia Roberts? And you might ask, why not Streep and why I left Helen Mirren out? Well because they are both AMAZING actress and they are in EVERY role so to nominate them or give them the award would just not be logical because they will win EVERY TIME, in other words we need new talent and younger looking faces. Carey seems as a filler in the category, Emily is talented and needs the recognition, and Gaby still has a long way to go, but is remarkable as Precious.)

    Best Actor

    Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
    George Clooney (Up In The Air)
    Colin Firth (A Single Man)
    Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)
    Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

    Winner: George Clooney (Yes I choose him over Bridges for many reasons. Bridges is not good at acceptance speeches, he's too country and unrefined to be up in the oscar stage, sorry but it's my personal appreciation. He is also suffering from the "Mike Rourke Comeback Syndrome". Remember how he took them all but the Oscar? He lost to Sean Penn, who was far more up to Oscar standards.

    Best Supporting Actress

    Marion Cotillard (Nine)
    Penelope Cruz (Nine)
    Anna Kendrick (Up In The Air)
    Julianne Moore (A Serious Man)
    Mo'Nique (Precious)

    Winner: Mo'Nique (I won't discuss why she'll win because it'll be redundant to do so, after reading all the rave reviews for her performance. So why no Vera Farmiga or Maggie Gyllenhaal in this category? Well simply because Bridges made Crazy Heart and if your going to nominate Gyllenhaal you might as well nominate Colin Farrell. And Farmiga was just really good but not as great as Kendrick, although she wasn't that much better still made for a better pick from the two to nominate. And why Cotillard? Well if you saw Nine you felt the suffering of Luisa aka Marion Cotillard during both her numbers. Without doubt Cruz was to me a sure lock. She is the only comedic performer in this category and was fantastic as Carla.)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Yeah I've got nothing, I'm actually ok with the academy's choice. Except i think that Christopher Plummer's performance is more in the Best Actor category.

    Winner: Christoph Waltz (Whatever I guess...)

    One last thing:

    Up is no better than any other Pixar film, so calm down with all the hype!

    February 2, 2010 at 5:43PM EST Reply to Comment

Get Instant Alerts on Awards Campaign

HitFix Poll

Who will win the 2010 Oscar for Best Director?

Latest Posts
More Posts
Recent Activity on Facebook
Most Popular on Facebook
Top Stories From Around the Web