Cannes Film Festival 2013

Oscars 2012: 10 things we already know by June

Is it the most competitive field in years?

<p>Steven Spielberg is playing the awards season game again with "War Horse."</p>

Steven Spielberg is playing the awards season game again with "War Horse."

Credit: DreamWorks

June is still two days away, but with the 2011 movie season edging close to the halfway mark, it's becoming painfully apparent Hollywood is in for one humdinger of a competitive awards season.  The fireworks won't really begin until the Venice/Telluride/Toronto triumvirate of festivals at the beginning of September, but with studios setting their fourth quarter release dates, hot Cannes titles getting acquired and buzz leaking about what contenders have already been screened it's hard not to see the wheels already in motion.  Taking all that into account, here are 10 topics of interest that should hold you over until August.  And besides, it's never really to early to talk Oscar, is it?

It's a year of ingenues
We'll talk about Ms. Streep's chances at finally winning a third best actress prize in a minute, but 2012 is clearly looking like the younger ladies could dominate both acting races.  The list of contenders includes Elizabeth Olsen ("Martha Marcy May Marlene"), Felicity Jones ("Like Crazy"), Jennifer Lawrence ("Like Crazy"), Kristen Stewart ("On the Road"), Michelle Williams ("My Week with Marilyn"), Kirsten Dunst ("Melancholia"), Bryce Dallas Howard ("The Help"), Jessica Chastain ("The Help," "Take Shelter"), Keira Knightley ("A Dangerous Method"), Scarlett Johansson ("We Brought a Zoo"), Evan Rachel Wood ("The Ides of March") and Anna Kendrick ("50/50").  Needless to say, the roles for ladies have much improved over the past 12 months.

The animated feature race is wide open
"Cars 2" is expected to be a monster at the box office next month, but the original holds the distinction of being only one of two Pixar films not to win the best animated feature Oscar since the category began over 10 years ago.  This year, "Cars 2" will have to prove it's a better film than the critically acclaimed "Rango," the highly anticipated "Puss in Boots," Aardman and Sony Pictures Animation's "Arthur Christmas" or "Happy Feet II" the sequel to "Happy Feet" which - you guessed it -- beat "Cars" for Oscar gold the first time around.  Will history repeat itself? 

Ladies will represent in the best director race
After Katheryn Bigelow's historic best director win in 2010, the 2011 class returned to an all boys club.  That may change in 2012.  Whether it's Phyllida Lloyd ("The Iron Lady"), Jodie Foster ("The Beaver"), Lynne Ramsay ("We Need to Talk About Kevin") or, no joke, Angelina Jolie ("In the Land of Blood and Honey"), a number of women will at least be in contention for a nomination this year.

Don't fear being the frontrunner
If last season taught awards consultants anything it's that fears over being the frontrunner can be vastly overstated.  "The King's Speech" was a favorite of many after it's Telluride/Toronto debuts even if "The Social Network" stole some of its thunder for a good six weeks beginning in Dec.  However, for every fallen contender such as "Up in the Air" or "Brokeback Mountain" there is a "Speech," "Slumdog Millionaire" or "No Country for Old Men" that proves being the presumed winner for most of the race isn't always a bad thing.

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Meryl Streep's campaign for number three is on
We're not sure why the greatest American actress in history keeps doing this to herself, but we're beginning to believe she's just so talented she can't help it.  Yes, Meryl Streep is tempting fate to land her 17th Academy Award nomination by playing former U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the new biopic "The Iron Lady."  Streep can claim two Oscars, but unlike peer Jack Nicholson she still hasn't won a third (and she clearly deserves it).  Instead, she has returned as a nominee 12 times since 1983 and lost every single time.  Again, Streep has lost 12 times over the past 28 years.  If she'd never won that would be viewed as Susan Lucci-level psychological torture.  So, needless to say, she's due.

Sundance and Cannes have had a significant say

The annual January competition in Park City, Utah has become a launching ground for many Oscar contenders and individual nominees over the past decade and 2011 was no different.  Film such as "Project Nim," "The Guard," "Like Crazy," "How to Die in Oregon," "Martha Marcy May Marlene" and "Happy Happy" should all make noise in numerous categories by the time Oscar roles around.  Cannes, on the other hand, hasn't provided much the past few years outside of "Inglourious Basterds" and best foreign language film players.  That should change in 2012. "The Artist," "Melancholia," "The Tree of Life," "We Need To Talk About Kevin" and "Midnight in Paris" should all provide nominees in numerous races.  And "Paris," "Artist" and "Tree" even have a legitimate shot at best picture.

He's baaaaaaacckkkkkkkkkk, Pt. 1 (Steven Spielberg, that is)
Yes, before he tackles the ultimate Oscar bait biopic "Lincoln," Spielberg has returned with his first film set during WW I.  Even if it wasn't an epic, even if it wasn't based on a beloved novel, Spielberg and a late December release date is pure awards play.

He's baaaaaaacckkkkkkkkkk, Pt. 2 (Clint Eastwood, that is)

Let's be blunt here.  When Clint Eastwood drops a movie in the fall or December, it's going to be immediately viewed under the awards season microscope. With "J. Edgar," Eastwood is tackling the controversial FBI director J. Edgar Hoover.  He also has Leonardo DiCaprio in the title role and an impressive cast including Naomi Watts, Judi Dench, Armie Hammer and Dermot Mulroney.  Of course the script is by Oscar winner Dustin Lance Black which is a double-edged sword.  After Black's atrocious "Whats Wrong with Virgina" (still waiting for the release), "Edgar" will need to prove Black isn't the one script wonder many think he is.  

Another George Clooney double take
When George Clooney plays the Oscar game he's made it a habit -- or a coincidence -- of usually having more than one picture in the game.  In 2005, Clooney was nominated for best director and best original screenplay for "Good Night, and Good Luck," but took home his first statue for best supporting actor for his work in "Syriana."  In 2010, Clooney was nominated for best actor for "Up in the Air" and provided the lead voice in best animated feature film nominee "Fantastic Mr. Fox" (and yes, we know he was nominated for best actor in 2008 for "Michael Clayton" and that was it, but please don't throw water on our theory yet).  This season, Clooney is directing and appearing in "The Ides of March" as well as starring in Alexander Payne's potential frontrunner "The Descendants."  Don't be surprised if it's 2005 all over again for Clooney.

The most competitive best picture field in years?
After "The Blind Side" made the field of ten nominees in 2010, there were many that said it would be difficult to find enough worthy films in the expanded best picture category.  The second year of the expansion proved that theory false with a number of significant films being left out in the cold.  This year, quality prestige films are on a comeback trail.  Look at this preliminary list of 28 possible contenders (those in bold have already screened).

"Crazy Stupid Love," "J. Edgar," "The Descendants," "We Built A Zoo" (Cameron Crowe), "Like Crazy," "Take Shelter," "My Weekend With Marilyn," "The Iron Lady," "War Horse" (Spielberg), "Hugo Cabret" (Martin Scorsese), "Moneyball," "Dream House" (Jim Sheridan), "Midnight in Paris," "Drive," "The Tree of Life," "Young Adult" (Jason Reitman), "50/50," "The Artist," "Contagion" (Steven Soderbergh), "Ides of March" (Clooney), "The Guard," "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" (Stephen Daldry), "Gods of Carnage" (Roman Polanski), "On the Road" (Walter Salles), "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" (Tomas Alfredson), "In the Land of Blood and Honey" (Angelina Jolie), "A Dangerous Method" (David Cronenberg).

And those are just the ones we know should be released this year.  And you wonder why we're talking about Oscar in June, er, May.  Now you know.

For year round entertainment commentary follow Gregory Ellwood on twitter @HitFixGregory

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  • Default-avatar

    G

    The play was titled "God of Carnage". Polanski's adaptations is titled simply "Carnage".

    May 30, 2011 at 5:59AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Chew_talkback_profile

    Shitegeist

    I'm pretty sure it's 'What's Wrong With Virginia', not 'Virgina'.

    May 30, 2011 at 6:03AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    atoll

    And it`s ''We Bought a Zoo'',not "We Built A Zoo" (Cameron Crowe).

    May 30, 2011 at 6:47AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    cinefan

    "Needless to say, the roles for ladies have much improved over the past 12 months."

    Well, really?? You only named roles for YOUNG ladies, so I wouldn't say the roles have improved, as there is no lady mentioned over 40 (except of Meryl Streep) . Last year was called the "great year for actresses" because Annette Bening, Julianne Moore, Lesley Manville, Nicole Kidman etc.etc., all actresses over 40, had great roles.

    May 30, 2011 at 6:49AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Kaylie

    No love for Rooney Mara?

    May 30, 2011 at 10:54AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Db_vader_sm_talkback_profile

    FoundNemo

    Yeah...pretty sure I read something on *this* site about how it was the tightest race for women in years last year.

    May 30, 2011 at 11:22AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Raylan_-_copy_talkback_profile

      Jonnybon Yeah, it was very tight between Bening and Portman, but this year the overall field is unquestionably stronger.

      May 30, 2011 at 12:50PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Devin McCullen

    Jodie Foster for Best Director? It's probably not her fault, but The Beaver's a complete flop. It's already gone from every theater in Manhattan.

    May 30, 2011 at 12:32PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Yeah, I don't see Jodie up for an Oscar for The Beaver. It struck me as odd that she was mentioned in this article. I'm not judging a movie simply because it was a commercial flop either. The Beaver didn't exactly receive widespread critical acclaim either.

      May 30, 2011 at 2:12PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Christopher Plummer website

    Prematurely, Predicts Best Supporting Actor At The 2012 Oscars:
    Christopher Plummer—“Beginners”
    We’re absolutely dying to see Mike Mills’ sophomore film, “Beginners” but it doesn’t seem heavyweight enough to make a real impression at the Oscars. But there’s one exception to that. Incredibly, Christopher Plummer has only been nominated once, for 2009’s “The Last Station.” But here, as a man who comes out in the twilight of his life, he seems to have a killer role, and from the glimpses of the film we’ve seen so far, the performance looks like a joy. Plus, there are hints of terminal illness in the film’s plotline, which can’t exactly hurt. With Focus Features behind the film, we’ve got a hunch that this could finally be Plummer’s year.

    http://www.sodahead.com/entertainment/best-supporting-actor-at-the-2012-oscars/question-1820285/

    May 30, 2011 at 1:14PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Dawn

    No chance for Jodie Foster. The Beaver didn't make a dent. It's already forgotten. Lynne Ramsey has the best chance of being the lone female. Bryce Dallas Howard doesn't have an Oscar worthy role in The Help. The only two I can see coming out of that with a nomination are Viola Davis and Emma Stone. It's more of a Golden Globes than an Oscar film.

    May 30, 2011 at 1:35PM EST Reply to Comment


  • Michael Shannon should get some Oscar attention for Take Shelter.

    May 30, 2011 at 2:15PM EST Reply to Comment


  • Hasn't Streep won Best Actress once (not twice) and Supporting Actress once?

    May 30, 2011 at 5:45PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    x

    Tilda Swinton for a nomination seems like a strong chance.

    May 30, 2011 at 8:10PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Renard B.

    At this point, I sense the 10-film BP field having no animated entrees for this year....

    May 30, 2011 at 9:22PM EST Reply to Comment


  • Hey Greg, why no spot for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" in the list of contenders?

    Also, you are ignoring "Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked" at your own peril.

    May 31, 2011 at 6:00AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Anonymous

    I think there may be one thing you are forgetting in the best picture race: the Blockbuster Contender (yes, there is a usual animated contender too, but Rango seems to be the only one that might be up to snuff). Last year, we had Avatar, this year, we had Inception, and if early buzz could be believed, we may be looking at a spot for Super 8(possible), Harry Potter 7.2 (less possibly), or even (a longshot, I know, but would be awesome if so) x-Men, 1st class., since currently, there seems to be no intelligent blockbusters on this lsit (Crazy stupid Love may be a mainstream film, but comedies are rarely blockbusters).

    May 31, 2011 at 7:54PM EST Reply to Comment
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    AbSidd

    Where's The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo? No mention of David Fincher!!!!!

    June 27, 2011 at 2:45PM EST Reply to Comment
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    Voice of Reason

    Are you kidding me?? I stopped reading this silly Bush League blog when the writer said that The King's Speech was an example of "Starting as the front runner and winning the award."

    Are you kidding me? Everybody thought that the Social Network had it in the bag most of the year until the King's Speech started winning the guild awards. The Social Network had all of the newspapers and critics awards, but a British period piece was too distracting for an experimental piece that was also fun to watch to win. But, that being said, I still loved the King's Speech, I just think that it reflected poorly on the voters to have it win, just another British period piece so that they won't have to leave their comfort zone.

    June 29, 2011 at 2:32PM EST Reply to Comment

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