Like the SAG Awards and many of the other guild awards, the BAFTA Orange Film Awards is a partial indicator to what Academy members may be thinking for the Academy Awards. Granted, there is less crossover between the British Film Academy and AMPAS then say SAG or the Writer's Guild, there is enough and its certainly a lot more applicable than the Golden Globes or Critic's Choice Awards. 

Unlike most awards shows, however, BAFTA has a complicated voting process which takes place over three rounds.  The first is released as a "longlist" and reveals a broad list of possible nominees.  The second round is the traditional "nominee" round revealed on Jan. 18 and the final round are the winners which will be announced in a gala ceremony on Sunday, Feb. 18.

Couple of pointers when reviewing the longlist:

- The asterisks denote the top five selection of the relevant Chapter (or branch).  These are key indicators for the final nominees.
- Over 6300 members of the Academy vote in three rounds to decide the longlist, nominations and winners. All members vote in the first two rounds. In the final round, winners are voted for by specialist Chapters n all categories except for Best Film, the four performance categories and Film Not in the English Language, which are voted for by all members.
- There will be five nominees in every category but Animated Film.
- There is no longlist in the following categories: Outstanding British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Producer or Director, Short Animation and Short Film.

Now, let's review shall we?

Best Film

127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Made In Dagenham
Shutter Island
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Lowdown: "Rabbit Hole," "Blue Valentine" and "Biutiful" are the big missing picture here.  Everything else pretty much expected besides "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" which British critics must have appreciated more than the ones on this side of the pond.

Director

127 Hours *
Alice In Wonderland
Another Year
Black Swan *
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Inception *
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Shutter Island
The Social Network *
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Lowdown: So, by "branch" the top vote getters are David Fincher, Tom Hooper, Darren Aronofsky, Danny Boyle and Christopher Nolan. The Coens are the odd men out here, but could still make the Oscar cut. Strange Polanski didn't get some love for "The Ghost Writer" though.


Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours *
Alice In Wonderland
Barney’s Version
Brighton Rock
Despicable Me
The Ghost (aka "The Ghost Writer" in the U.S.)
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Never Let Me Go
Rabbit Hole
Shutter Island
The Social Network *
The Town
Toy Story 3 *
True Grit *
Winter’s Bone *

Lowdown: The branch votes look pretty close to what we should expect Oscar nomination morning.

Original Screenplay
Another Year
Biutiful
Black Swan *
Blue Valentine
The Disappearance Of Alice Creed
The Fighter *
Four Lions
Get Low
Hereafter
I Am Love
Inception *
The Kids Are All Right *
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Of Gods and Men

Lowdown: Another mirror of what we should see Oscar nomination morning from the BAFTA writing branch.

Make Up & Hair   
127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland *
Black Swan *
Brighton Rock
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1 *
I Am Love
Inception
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham *
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

Lowdown: No "Tron Legacy"?  No "Wolfman"?  Hmmmm.  Methinks Oscar will be a bit more commercial.

Editing  
 
127 Hours *
Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan *
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception *
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Shutter Island
The Social Network *
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Lowdown: Important to note, editing is a key nomination to determine a best picture winner.  If these are the same five picks for Oscar you're looking at your top contenders which, in this case, does not include "The Fighter" or "True Grit."

Special Visual Effects   
127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland *
Black Swan
Chronicles Of Narnia: Voyage Of The Dawn Treader
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1 *
Hereafter
How To Train Your Dragon
Inception *
Iron Man 2 *
Kick-Ass
The King’s Speech
Monsters
Shutter Island
Toy Story 3
Tron Legacy *

Lowdown: "Scott Pilgrim vs. the World" is the one confirmed Oscar player not even on the longlist here.  Poor Edgar Wright.  Dissed by his own countrymen.

Costume Design   
Alice In Wonderland *
Black Swan *
Brighton Rock
Chronicles Of Narnia: Voyage Of The Dawn Treader
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
I Am Love
Inception
Kick-Ass
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham *
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit *

Lowdown: Nice that "Kick-Ass" and "I Am Love" made the short list. Would be surprised if "Dagenham" made the Oscar cut.

Sound   

127 Hours *
Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan *
Brighton Rock
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception *
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Shutter Island
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3 *
True Grit *

Lowdown: "The Social Network" could crack the Oscar pool, but a solid list of branch votes.

Production Design   
127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland *
Black Swan *
Brighton Rock
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1 *
I Am Love
Inception *
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham


Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island *
The Social Network
True Grit *

Lowdown: Looks like a clear preview of Oscar from the branch votes.

Cinematography

127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan *
The Fighter
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
I Am Love
Inception *
The King’s Speech *
Never Let Me Go
Shutter Island *
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit *
Winter’s Bone

Lowdown: Very interesting.  "Social Network" is counting on an Oscar nod here, but didn't make BAFTA's branch vote.  Can it knock out "Shutter Island" or "The King's Speech" from Oscar's five?  Hmmm.

Original Music

127 Hours
Alice In Wonderland *
Biutiful
Brighton Rock
Despicable Me
The Ghost
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1
How To Train Your Dragon *
Inception *
The King’s Speech *
Made In Dagenham
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network *
The Town

Lowdown: Love that "How To Train Your Dragon" made the branch vote here.  Fingers crossed for Oscar.

Animated Film
Chico & Rita
Despicable Me *
How To Train Your Dragon *
Illusionist, The
Toy Story 3 *

Lowdown: Note, "Tangled" was not released in the UK in 2010 and therefore does not qualify.

Leading Actor   
Aaron Eckhart (Howie) – Rabbit Hole
Ben Affleck (Doug MacRay) – The Town
Colin Firth (King George VI) – The King’s Speech *
James Franco (Aron Ralston) – 127 Hours *
Javier Bardem (Uxbal) – Biutiful *
Jeff Bridges (Marshal Reuben J Cogburn) – True Grit *
Jesse Eisenberg (Mark Zuckerberg) – The Social Network *
Jim Broadbent (Tom) – Another Year
Johnny Depp (Mad Hatter) – Alice In Wonderland
Leonardo DiCaprio (Cobb) – Inception
Leonardo DiCaprio (Teddy Daniels) – Shutter Island
Mark Wahlberg (Micky Ward) – The Fighter
Paul Giamatti (Barney Panofsky) – Barney’s Version
Robert Duvall (Felix Bush) – Get Low
Ryan Gosling (Dean) – Blue Valentine

Lowdown: Javier Bardem gets a boost from a possible nod here.  Not so good for Ryan Gosling (a Golden Globe nominee) or Robert DuVall (a SAG nominee).

Leading Actress   
Andrea Riseborough (Rose) – Brighton Rock
Annette Bening (Nic) – The Kids Are All Right *
Carey Mulligan (Kathy) – Never Let Me Go *
Gemma Arterton (Alice) – The Disappearance Of Alice Creed
Gemma Arterton (Tamara Drewe) – Tamara Drewe
Hailee Steinfeld (Mattie Ross) – True Grit
Jennifer Lawrence (Ree) – Winter’s Bone
Julianne Moore (Jules) – The Kids Are All Right *
Michelle Williams (Cindy) – Blue Valentine *
Natalie Portman (Nina Sayers / The Swan Queen) – Black Swan *
Nicole Kidman (Becca) – Rabbit Hole
Noomi Rapace (Lisbeth Salander) – The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Rosamund Pike (Miriam Grant-Panofsky) – Barney’s Version
Sally Hawkins (Rita O’Grady) – Made In Dagenham
Tilda Swinton (Emma Recchi) – I Am Love

Lowdown: It will be tough for Mulligan to crack Oscar, but she gets the hometown love here.  Nicole Kidman looks like the likely Academy nominee on the outs for BAFTA.

Supporting Actor   
Andrew Garfield (Eduardo Saverin) – The Social Network *
Andrew Garfield (Tommy) – Never Let Me Go
Ben Kingsley (Dr Cawley) – Shutter Island
Bill Murray (Frank Quinn) – Get Low
Bob Hoskins (Albert) – Made In Dagenham*
Christian Bale (Dicky Eklund) – The Fighter *
Dustin Hoffman (Izzy Panofsky) – Barney’s Version
Geoffrey Rush (Lionel Logue) – The King’s Speech *
Guy Pearce (King Edward VIII) – The King’s Speech
Jeremy Renner (James Coughlin) – The Town
Justin Timberlake (Sean Parker) – The Social Network
Mark Ruffalo (Paul) – The Kids Are All Right *
Matt Damon (La Boeuf) – True Grit
Pete Postlethwaite (Fergus ‘Fergie’ Colm) – The Town
Vincent Cassel (Thomas Leroy / The Gentleman) – Black Swan

Lowdown: Hoskins absolutely won't make the Academy nods and is only displacing Jeremy Renner from "The Town" for the Brits.

Supporting Actress   
Amy Adams (Charlene Fleming) – The Fighter *
Barbara Hershey (Erica Sayers / The Queen) – Black Swan *
Ellen Page (Ariadne) – Inception
Geraldine James (Connie) – Made In Dagenham
Helena Bonham Carter (Queen Elizabeth) – The King’s Speech *
Helena Bonham Carter (Red Queen) – Alice In Wonderland
Lesley Manville (Mary) – Another Year *
Marion Cotillard (Mal) – Inception
Melissa Leo (Alice Ward) – The Fighter
Mila Kunis (Lily / The Black Swan) – Black Swan
Miranda Richardson (Barbara Castle) – Made In Dagenham *
Olivia Williams (Ruth Lang) – The Ghost
Rebecca Hall (Claire Keesey) – The Town
Rosamund Pike (Lisa Hopkins) – Made In Dagenham
Winona Ryder (Beth Macintyre / The Dying Swan) – Black Swan

Lowdown: Interestingly, BAFTA considers Manville supporting while Sony Classics has been pushing her for lead in Oscar and SAG (which didn't work by the way).  She knocks out Melissa Leo while Leo's "Fighter" co-star Amy Adams still makes the "branch" vote.  Even more intriguing, "Black Swan's" Barbara Hershey makes the branch vote while Mila Kunis, who received a SAG nod does not.

Yep, just more awards season fun.  Do you think BAFTA means anything in the Oscar race? Share your thoughts below.